Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares MSCI ACWI ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>In last week's Int'l Compass (Aug. 18) we discussed that global equities are going through a bottoming process, but that the real test will come during the eventual pullback.</li>
<li>We are getting the pullback now, but so far, there has yet to be any failed breakouts among the indexes discussed over the past month -- a positive sign.</li>
<li>Worth noting- <em>further</em> breakout attempts have failed on some of the leading market indexes, notably the Nasdaq 100 and India's SENSEX, but they remain well-above their breakout levels from July.</li>
</ul>


In last week's Int'l Compass (Aug. 18) we discussed that global equities are going through a bottoming process, but that the real test will come during the eventual pullback.
We are getting the pullback now, but so far, there has yet to be any failed breakouts among the indexes discussed over the past month -- a positive sign.
Worth noting- further breakout attempts have failed on some of the leading market indexes, notably the Nasdaq 100 and India's SENSEX, but they remain well-above their breakout levels from July.


Pullback Underway; Buy Ideas: Energy, Materials, Japan/India Motor Vehicles, Japan Health Care

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Nirmal Bang

Nirmal Bang

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

A Relationship Beyond Broking

Nirmal Bang, one of the leading stock broking companies in India, caters to retail and institutional clients by offering them a range of financial products and services, including equities, derivatives, commodities, currency derivatives, mutual funds, IPOs, insurance, depository services and PMS.

Nirmal Bang is drawn from a diversity of professional backgrounds, and blend of experience, skill and dedication is shared with its clients. Nirmal Bang emphasizes adequate, thorough research local and world-wide developments, balancing these with the astute discovery of intrinsic values, synergies and growth. The aim is simply to help the investors to maximize their returns.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>We see the likely hit on demand as well as margins from the supply disruption across energy, fertilizers and chemicals sectors, aggravated by the Russia-Ukraine conflict, cast a shadow on 4QFY22E for NBIE Chemical stocks.</li>
<li>The buoyancy in freight rates (up more than 100% YoY) is an added worry.</li>
<li>On the brighter side, we see pricing power supporting margins, barring in the case of Coromandel International (CRIN).</li>
</ul>
<p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>


We see the likely hit on demand as well as margins from the supply disruption across energy, fertilizers and chemicals sectors, aggravated by the Russia-Ukraine conflict, cast a shadow on 4QFY22E for NBIE Chemical stocks.
The buoyancy in freight rates (up more than 100% YoY) is an added worry.
On the brighter side, we see pricing power supporting margins, barring in the case of Coromandel International (CRIN).

Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Chemical Sector: Sector Margins to Hold up Despite Cost Push

India - Politics, Industrials, IT and Large Caps, EMAlpha

Pankaj Sharma

India - Politics, Industrials, IT and Large Caps

<h2>The Support for BJP and Modi has shrunk in Rural areas</h2><p>In last three and a half years, the Narendra Modi Govt has been disciplined about spending. However, recently concluded Gujarat elections indicate that people in rural areas are not happy (of course, this is on a comparable basis) with BJP and it is likely that Modi Administration will focus more on rural areas to deal with this. Please refer to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/india-politics-should-investors-be-scared-after-reading-the-message-of-gujarat-elections" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:16292">India Politics: Should Investors Be Scared After Reading the Message of Gujarat Elections?</a> and…</p>

The Support for BJP and Modi has shrunk in Rural areasIn last three and a half years, the Narendra Modi Govt has been disciplined about spending. However, recently concluded Gujarat elections indicate that people in rural areas are not happy (of course, this is on a comparable basis) with BJP and it is likely that Modi Administration will focus more on rural areas to deal with this. Please refer to India Politics: Should Investors Be Scared After Reading the Message of Gujarat Elections? and…

India: Government In "RURAL" Overdrive, Risks and the Opportunities

Value investor- India mid & small caps

Bhaskar Chakraborty

<ul><li>Recently, the consumer insights arm of WPP came out with a report suggesting a sharp pickup in FMCG sales volume in rural India in 2QFY18</li><li>We see continued pressure on rural incomes in 2HFY18 and believe any recovery will be modest at best</li><li>We note prices of key crops like rice, wheat, corn, soybean, cotton and mustard are down YoY</li><li>Milk prices are down 10% in the last three months</li><li>Agrochemical companies guide to continuation of challenging market conditions in 2HFY18</li><li>FMCG majors HUL and Dabur report rural growth in line with urban growth</li><li>Bajaj Finance's rural heavy 2 &amp; 3-W loan delinquencies remain significantly elevated from pre-demonetization levels</li><li>Gold demand in rural wedding season drops 25-30% YoY</li></ul>

Recently, the consumer insights arm of WPP came out with a report suggesting a sharp pickup in FMCG sales volume in rural India in 2QFY18We see continued pressure on rural incomes in 2HFY18 and believe any recovery will be modest at bestWe note prices of key crops like rice, wheat, corn, soybean, cotton and mustard are down YoYMilk prices are down 10% in the last three monthsAgrochemical companies guide to continuation of challenging market conditions in 2HFY18FMCG majors HUL and Dabur report rural growth in line with urban growthBajaj Finance's rural heavy 2 &amp; 3-W loan delinquencies remain significantly elevated from pre-demonetization levelsGold demand in rural wedding season drops 25-30% YoY

A Rural Recovery Is Underway in India, or Is It?

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analysed the earning revision of component stocks of MS-India in the past month.</li>
<li>We tabulated stocks with the top impact on index's EPS, stocks' EPS revision, and revenue revision.</li>
<li>We highlighted EPS revision on InterGlobe Aviation, Oracle Financial Services Software, Bharat Petroleum, ICICI Bank, HDFC Bank, Indian Oil, Vedanta, Reliance Industries.</li>
</ul>


We analysed the earning revision of component stocks of MS-India in the past month.
We tabulated stocks with the top impact on index's EPS, stocks' EPS revision, and revenue revision.
We highlighted EPS revision on InterGlobe Aviation, Oracle Financial Services Software, Bharat Petroleum, ICICI Bank, HDFC Bank, Indian Oil, Vedanta, Reliance Industries.


MS-India Index Earning Revision (Apr): InterGlobe Aviation, Oracle Financial Services Software

India

PI Industries Limited manufactures agricultural and fine chemicals, and polymers. The Company produces fine chemicals; crop protection, plant nutrients, and seeds; and engineering plastics for use in the automobile, electrical, and home appliances industries.

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Pi Industries (PI IN)

Pullback Underway; Buy Ideas: Energy, Materials, Japan/India Motor Vehicles, Japan Health Care

Pullback Underway; Problem: U.S. Dollar $DXY, Global 10-Yr Sovereign Yields, and Commodities All on the Rise Again; Actionable Themes: Energy,...

Vermilion Research

Chemical Sector: Sector Margins to Hold up Despite Cost Push

We see the likely hit on demand as well as margins from the supply disruption across energy, fertilizers and chemicals sectors, aggravated by the...

Nirmal Bang

India: Government In "RURAL" Overdrive, Risks and the Opportunities

The Support for BJP and Modi has shrunk in Rural areasIn last three and a half years, the Narendra Modi Govt has been disciplined about spending....

Pankaj Sharma

A Rural Recovery Is Underway in India, or Is It?

Recently, the consumer insights arm of WPP came out with a report suggesting a sharp pickup in FMCG sales volume in rural India in 2QFY18 We see...

Bhaskar Chakraborty

MS-India Index Earning Revision (Apr): InterGlobe Aviation, Oracle Financial Services Software

We analyzed MS-India's consensus for Apr 2026 and highlighted changes of EPS in InterGlobe Aviation (INDIGO IN), Oracle Financial Services Software...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

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