China Macroeconomics & Academia

Christopher Balding

Macroeconomics

<p>China became a net capital exporter for the first time in 2014 as outward direct investment (ODI) overtook foreign direct investment (FDI). Financial liberalization, innovation and the pursuit of stability have been, for the PBOC, driving forces towards sector reforms and RMB internationalization.</p><p>With the progressive loosening of capital controls by the PBOC, capital accounts are becoming increasingly open. As the internationalisation of the RMB continues, capital inflows and outflows are…</p>

China became a net capital exporter for the first time in 2014 as outward direct investment (ODI) overtook foreign direct investment (FDI). Financial liberalization, innovation and the pursuit of stability have been, for the PBOC, driving forces towards sector reforms and RMB internationalization.With the progressive loosening of capital controls by the PBOC, capital accounts are becoming increasingly open. As the internationalisation of the RMB continues, capital inflows and outflows are…

Director - Research, Consulting and Advisory, BondAdviser

Nicholas Yaxley

Director - Research, Consulting and Advisory

Australian bonds & fixed income research

BondAdviser

BondAdviser is the central reference point for intelligent information on Australian fixed income markets. We help you make informed decisions by providing unbiased research, transparent pricing data, analytics, portfolio tools and education.

BondAdviser has the broadest coverage of retail-accessible ASX-listed and over-the-counter Australian bonds and fixed income securities. We make it easy for you to review and compare investments before you place an order with your broker or dealer.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<p>Bank hybrids have been issued in the Australian financial landscape for over 20 years in various forms. While drivers of performance have varied over this period, they are typically cyclical and have a recurring impact on security trading margins (albeit at different magnitudes). The focus of the article will be on what is technically known as an Additional Tier 1 capital security (hybrids), and our expectations for market drivers over the next twelve months and how hybrids will be impacted by supply &amp; demand, valuations, diverging monetary, and regulation.</p><p>Hybrid investors need to be aware of the different drivers of market volatility (fundamental or technical) and appreciate how they may (or may not) influence margin movements.</p>

Bank hybrids have been issued in the Australian financial landscape for over 20 years in various forms. While drivers of performance have varied over this period, they are typically cyclical and have a recurring impact on security trading margins (albeit at different magnitudes). The focus of the article will be on what is technically known as an Additional Tier 1 capital security (hybrids), and our expectations for market drivers over the next twelve months and how hybrids will be impacted by supply &amp; demand, valuations, diverging monetary, and regulation.Hybrid investors need to be aware of the different drivers of market volatility (fundamental or technical) and appreciate how they may (or may not) influence margin movements.

Liquidity and Technical Drivers of Hybrids

APAC Investment Strategy, Animal Spirits Report

Paul M. Kitney, PhD

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

<h2><strong>Executive Summary</strong></h2><ol>
<li>OPEC production cut plan supports our macro thesis of an oil-led, inflation expectations uplift.</li>
<li>Our original WTI peak base effect was +20 percent YOY. Now based on end-September oil it is +40 percent.</li>
<li>Our bullish case for EM is in large part based on improved pricing power in energy and material sectors.</li>
<li>OPEC action assists supply rebalance and steepens the path for inflation expectations and Fed action.</li>
<li>Strong oil supports our yield-based bullish view on banks and insurers.</li>
</ol><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/013/995/original/animal_spirits3.png?1475197603" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="13995"></figure><h2>Oil</h2>…

Executive Summary
OPEC production cut plan supports our macro thesis of an oil-led, inflation expectations uplift.
Our original WTI peak base effect was +20 percent YOY. Now based on end-September oil it is +40 percent.
Our bullish case for EM is in large part based on improved pricing power in energy and material sectors.
OPEC action assists supply rebalance and steepens the path for inflation expectations and Fed action.
Strong oil supports our yield-based bullish view on banks and insurers.
Oil…

ANIMAL SPIRITS Update: OPEC Fuels Base Effect - Oil, Inflation & The Fed, Yields, Financials and EM

Bespoke Research on China and neighbouring regions, Bixmoor

Bixmoor

Bespoke Research on China and neighbouring regions

Bixmoor specialises in providing bespoke research to business, governments and the financial community on China and neighbouring regions. We seek to build long-term relationships with our clients, based on our expertise, our reliability and our determination to find the right solution.

<p>For too long China's state banks have relied on a guaranteed profit from state-sanctioned lending rates. Electronic payment systems will provide both a challenge and an opportunity to these privileged behemoths.</p>

For too long China's state banks have relied on a guaranteed profit from state-sanctioned lending rates. Electronic payment systems will provide both a challenge and an opportunity to these privileged behemoths.

Encouraging Non-Interest Income in China's Banks

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

<p>There is plenty of corporate risk out there. We have seen this across several large economies in the way of meaningful corporate stress. </p><p>In South Korea, the Hanjin Shipping bankruptcy has negative implications not only for Korean banks, but certainly other banks lending into this space. This will not be an isolated shipping stress; there will be more.  In China, Bohai Steel is in trouble, which reportedly has US$28.9 billion in overdue loans. The steel sector has hit several banks in Thailand…</p>

There is plenty of corporate risk out there. We have seen this across several large economies in the way of meaningful corporate stress. In South Korea, the Hanjin Shipping bankruptcy has negative implications not only for Korean banks, but certainly other banks lending into this space. This will not be an isolated shipping stress; there will be more.  In China, Bohai Steel is in trouble, which reportedly has US$28.9 billion in overdue loans. The steel sector has hit several banks in Thailand…

Consumer Banks in Asia May Fare Better at a Time when Large Corporate Stresses Are Evident

China

PICC Property & Casualty is the largest non-life insurance company in mainland China, providing a broad range of property and casualty insurance products. Its offerings include motor vehicle, commercial property, cargo, liability, accidental injury and health, agriculture, credit, surety, and homeowners insurance. The company also offers reinsurance and insurance agency services. It is headquartered in Beijing, China, and was incorporated in 2003.

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PICC Property & Casualty (2328 HK)

RMB FX Flow Report

China became a net capital exporter for the first time in 2014 as outward direct investment (ODI) overtook foreign direct investment (FDI)....

Christopher Balding

Liquidity and Technical Drivers of Hybrids

Bank hybrids have been issued in the Australian financial landscape for over 20 years in various forms. While drivers of performance have varied...

BondAdviser

ANIMAL SPIRITS Update: OPEC Fuels Base Effect - Oil, Inflation & The Fed, Yields, Financials and EM

Executive Summary OPEC production cut plan supports our macro thesis of an oil-led, inflation expectations uplift. Our original WTI peak base...

Paul M. Kitney, PhD

Encouraging Non-Interest Income in China's Banks

For too long China's state banks have relied on a guaranteed profit from state-sanctioned lending rates. Electronic payment systems will provide...

Bixmoor

Consumer Banks in Asia May Fare Better at a Time when Large Corporate Stresses Are Evident

There is plenty of corporate risk out there. We have seen this across several large economies in the way of meaningful corporate stress. In South...

Daniel Tabbush

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