External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Equity Bottom-Up

PICC Property & Casualty H / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>PICC P&amp;C reported a strong 1Q25 earnings alert, with net profit expected to surge 80%-100% YoY to RMB10.6bn-11.7bn, implying a QoQ upswing of 95.3%-117% vs 4Q24.</li><li>1Q25 net profit represented more than one-third (33%-37%) of last year’s total net profit, driven by 1) a largely improved CoR with reduced catastrophic claims in 1Q25; and 2) optimized asset allocation structure shifting from the FVTPL to FVOCI, which helped smooth the volatilities from fair value movement to achieve steady investment income growth amid market fluctuations.</li><li>We estimate the 1Q25 CoR to arrive at less than 95%, and adjust the auto/non-auto CoR to 95.9%/99.0% (prev.96.0%/98.9% report) in FY25E, thanks to stringent expense controls and an improved non-auto UW structure. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

PICC P&amp;C reported a strong 1Q25 earnings alert, with net profit expected to surge 80%-100% YoY to RMB10.6bn-11.7bn, implying a QoQ upswing of 95.3%-117% vs 4Q24.1Q25 net profit represented more than one-third (33%-37%) of last year’s total net profit, driven by 1) a largely improved CoR with reduced catastrophic claims in 1Q25; and 2) optimized asset allocation structure shifting from the FVTPL to FVOCI, which helped smooth the volatilities from fair value movement to achieve steady investment income growth amid market fluctuations.We estimate the 1Q25 CoR to arrive at less than 95%, and adjust the auto/non-auto CoR to 95.9%/99.0% (prev.96.0%/98.9% report) in FY25E, thanks to stringent expense controls and an improved non-auto UW structure. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

PICC P&C (2328 HK) - 1Q25 CoR Outperformed

<ul><li>PICC P&amp;C’s full-year CoR missed, yet FY25E guidance beat. FY24 net profit amounted to RMB 32.2bn, up by 30.9% YoY, in line with our forecast.</li><li>Fullyear CoR was worse off to 98.8%, +1.0pct YoY due to a rise of loss ratio (+2.4pct) more than offset an optimized expense ratio (-1.4pct) to 73%/25.8% respectively.</li><li>Auto CoR was 96.8%, down 0.1pct YoY, meeting the &lt;97% year-start guidance, thanks to a better expense ratio (-2.3pct) offsetting the climb of claims (+2.2pct).</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

PICC P&amp;C’s full-year CoR missed, yet FY25E guidance beat. FY24 net profit amounted to RMB 32.2bn, up by 30.9% YoY, in line with our forecast.Fullyear CoR was worse off to 98.8%, +1.0pct YoY due to a rise of loss ratio (+2.4pct) more than offset an optimized expense ratio (-1.4pct) to 73%/25.8% respectively.Auto CoR was 96.8%, down 0.1pct YoY, meeting the &lt;97% year-start guidance, thanks to a better expense ratio (-2.3pct) offsetting the climb of claims (+2.2pct).Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

PICC P&C (2328 HK) - Optimized CoR guidance beat expectations

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

<ul>
<li>The new excitement of the MS&amp;AD story is the company's commitment to sell down all of its cross-shareholdings and to use proceeds to fund growth and dividends. </li>
<li>ROE is already far higher now than in recent years, and this can continue with rising dividends. </li>
<li>Monthly insurance sales figures give a good window on the core business, with growth rates in May YoY and YTD accelerating.</li>
</ul>


The new excitement of the MS&amp;AD story is the company's commitment to sell down all of its cross-shareholdings and to use proceeds to fund growth and dividends. 
ROE is already far higher now than in recent years, and this can continue with rising dividends. 
Monthly insurance sales figures give a good window on the core business, with growth rates in May YoY and YTD accelerating.


MS&AD Insurance - Sell Stocks to Zero; Drive Growth, Dividends. HFD on Policy Sales, Accelerating

Fintech & EM-focused Analyst, KT Capital Group

Alec Tseung

Fintech & EM-focused Analyst

KT Capital Group

Principal investments and advisory firm that focuses on connecting the CIS countries with East Asia.

Principal investments and advisory firm

<ul>
<li>The insurance sector should definitely warrant more investor attention going forward as some insurance names in the region have had a very strong year in 2022.</li>
<li>Two key markets we view positively in 2023 are China's P&amp;C and Korea's L&amp;H insurance markets, given their favorable industry catalysts and tailwinds. </li>
<li>Among all the insurance stocks in these two markets, we believe PICC P&amp;C and Samsung Life will continue to have an exciting year ahead.</li>
</ul>


The insurance sector should definitely warrant more investor attention going forward as some insurance names in the region have had a very strong year in 2022.
Two key markets we view positively in 2023 are China's P&amp;C and Korea's L&amp;H insurance markets, given their favorable industry catalysts and tailwinds. 
Among all the insurance stocks in these two markets, we believe PICC P&amp;C and Samsung Life will continue to have an exciting year ahead.


APAC Insurers Series (#1): A Hidden Gem in This Bear Market?

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

PICC Property & Casualty H / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/picc-property-casualty-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:350:1" rel="noopener">PICC Property &amp; Casualty H (2328 HK)</a> will replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/longfor-properties" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8149:1" rel="noopener">Longfor Properties (960 HK)</a> in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX)</a> at the close on 6 December.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 2.68% resulting in a round-trip trade of HK$2.84bn (US$365m). The final capping will use the close of trading on 3 December.</li>
<li>There could be a move higher in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/picc-property-casualty-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:350:1" rel="noopener">PICC Property &amp; Casualty</a> over the next few days while any selling in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/longfor-properties" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8149:1" rel="noopener">Longfor Properties</a> will be a covering opportunity for the shorts.</li>
</ul>



PICC Property &amp; Casualty H (2328 HK) will replace Longfor Properties (960 HK) in the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX) at the close on 6 December.
Estimated one-way turnover is 2.68% resulting in a round-trip trade of HK$2.84bn (US$365m). The final capping will use the close of trading on 3 December.
There could be a move higher in PICC Property &amp; Casualty over the next few days while any selling in Longfor Properties will be a covering opportunity for the shorts.


HSCEI Index Rebalance: PICC P&C (2328 HK) Replaces Longfor (960 HK)

China

PICC Property and Casualty Company Limited provides insurance services. The Company provides property loss insurances, liability insurances, credit insurances, accidental injury insurances, short term health insurances, guarantee insurances, and other insurance products. PICC Property and Casualty also operates investment businesses.

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PICC Property & Casualty H (2328 HK)

PICC P&C (2328 HK) - 1Q25 CoR Outperformed

PICC P&C reported a strong 1Q25 earnings alert, with net profit expected to surge 80%-100% YoY to RMB10.6bn-11.7bn, implying a QoQ upswing of 95.3%...

CMB International

PICC P&C (2328 HK) - Optimized CoR guidance beat expectations

PICC P&C’s full-year CoR missed, yet FY25E guidance beat. FY24 net profit amounted to RMB 32.2bn, up by 30.9% YoY, in line with our forecast.

CMB International

MS&AD Insurance - Sell Stocks to Zero; Drive Growth, Dividends. HFD on Policy Sales, Accelerating

MS&AD commits to sell down its cross-shareholding to zero, proceeds to fund growth, dividends. Core insurance sales improving, with April and May...

Daniel Tabbush

APAC Insurers Series (#1): A Hidden Gem in This Bear Market?

China P&C and Korea L&H are two insurance markets in Asia that we view positively in 2023, thanks to the continued catalysts. PICC P&C and Samsung...

Alec Tseung

HSCEI Index Rebalance: PICC P&C (2328 HK) Replaces Longfor (960 HK)

PICC P&C will replace Longfor Properties HSCEI at the close on 6 Dec. Estimated 1-way turnover is 2.68% resulting in a round-trip trade of...

Brian Freitas

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