Index Rebal Trades & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal Trades & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Index Rebalance

PICC Property & Casualty H / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The HSCEI serves as a benchmark to reflect the overall performance of the top 50 "Mainland China" securities listed in Hong Kong.</li>
<li>The index changes and indicative weights for the September 2024 index rebal event is expected to be announced after market close on Friday 16th August 2024.</li>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at our latest expectations for capping flows based on current prices.</li>
</ul>


The HSCEI serves as a benchmark to reflect the overall performance of the top 50 "Mainland China" securities listed in Hong Kong.
The index changes and indicative weights for the September 2024 index rebal event is expected to be announced after market close on Friday 16th August 2024.
In this insight, we take a look at our latest expectations for capping flows based on current prices.


Quiddity Leaderboard HSCEI Sep 24: Announcement Soon; Updated Flow Expectations and Trade Idea

Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Hong Kong market quietly broke its downward trend channel last week, however the HSI met strong resistance at 18200 (100 Week Moving Average).</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/picc-property-casualty-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:350:1" rel="noopener">PICC Property &amp; Casualty H (2328 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-petroleum-chemical-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:369:1" rel="noopener">China Petroleum &amp; Chemical (386 HK)</a> broke to new highs relative to MSCI indices.  Sinopec may benefit from stronger RMB in 2H24.
</li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shenzhou-intl-group-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10415:1" rel="noopener">Shenzhou Intl Group Holdings (2313 HK)</a> had a short-term turnaround from its downtrend.  The company reported growth in sales and better margins in 2Q24.</li>
</ul>


Hong Kong market quietly broke its downward trend channel last week, however the HSI met strong resistance at 18200 (100 Week Moving Average).

PICC Property &amp; Casualty H (2328 HK) and China Petroleum &amp; Chemical (386 HK) broke to new highs relative to MSCI indices.  Sinopec may benefit from stronger RMB in 2H24.

Shenzhou Intl Group Holdings (2313 HK) had a short-term turnaround from its downtrend.  The company reported growth in sales and better margins in 2Q24.


Technically Speaking, Breakouts and Breakdowns: HONG KONG (SEPTEMBER 3)

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

<ul>
<li>Industrials and Consumer Staples Remain Top Overweights, Though Sentiment Fragile for Both.</li>
<li>Energy sector shows signs of a turnaround from long-term decline, whilst Financials remain unloved by China investors.</li>
<li>Real Estate allocations have hit record lows, with average holdings at just 2.93%, while Consumer Discretionary sector approaches all-time highs.</li>
</ul>


Industrials and Consumer Staples Remain Top Overweights, Though Sentiment Fragile for Both.
Energy sector shows signs of a turnaround from long-term decline, whilst Financials remain unloved by China investors.
Real Estate allocations have hit record lows, with average holdings at just 2.93%, while Consumer Discretionary sector approaches all-time highs.


Fintech & EM-focused Analyst, KT Capital Group

Alec Tseung

Fintech & EM-focused Analyst

KT Capital Group

Principal investments and advisory firm that focuses on connecting the CIS countries with East Asia.

Principal investments and advisory firm

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Given Pru's demerger in 2021, it now offers investors a good alternative to AIA to tap into the development and the growth potential of the life insurance sector in Pan-Asia.</li>
<li>AIA has a more balanced business across so many markets in APAC, while Pru skews toward Southeast Asia.</li>
<li>Pru's P/BV is currently at a 30% discount to AIA's and is trading at the same level as the year-end when China just announced the re-opening of its borders.</li>
</ul>


Given Pru's demerger in 2021, it now offers investors a good alternative to AIA to tap into the development and the growth potential of the life insurance sector in Pan-Asia.
AIA has a more balanced business across so many markets in APAC, while Pru skews toward Southeast Asia.
Pru's P/BV is currently at a 30% discount to AIA's and is trading at the same level as the year-end when China just announced the re-opening of its borders.


APAC Insurers Series (#2): AIA or Prudential?

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of June 13th.</li>
<li>The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.</li>
<li>We highlight flows for BYD, Meituan, CCB, Innovent Biologics, Petrochina, Tencent, Xiaomi, Alibaba, Kuaishou, Xpeng.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of June 13th.
The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.
We highlight flows for BYD, Meituan, CCB, Innovent Biologics, Petrochina, Tencent, Xiaomi, Alibaba, Kuaishou, Xpeng.


HK Connect Flows Weekly (Jun 13th): BYD, Meituan, CCB, Innovent Biologics, Petrochina, Tencent

China

PICC Property and Casualty Company Limited provides insurance services. The Company provides property loss insurances, liability insurances, credit insurances, accidental injury insurances, short term health insurances, guarantee insurances, and other insurance products. PICC Property and Casualty also operates investment businesses.

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PICC Property & Casualty H (2328 HK)

Quiddity Leaderboard HSCEI Sep 24: Announcement Soon; Updated Flow Expectations and Trade Idea

We expect PICC Property (2328 HK) and New Oriental Education (9901 HK) to be added and JD Logistics (2618 HK) and Sensetime (20 HK) to be deleted....

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Technically Speaking, Breakouts and Breakdowns: HONG KONG (SEPTEMBER 3)

Hong Kong market broke its downtrend however it met strong resistance just above 18k. PICC and Sinopec broke to new highs relative to MSCI...

David Mudd

China Macro: Sector Positioning Update

Sector positioning among active China Funds. Industrials and Consumer Staples Remain Top Overweights, Energy shows signs of a turnaround, whilst...

Steven Holden

APAC Insurers Series (#2): AIA or Prudential?

Pru’s recent correction offers investors an opportune window to buy into its premium franchise (vs. AIA), although both stocks provide investors...

Alec Tseung

HK Connect Flows Weekly (Jun 13th): BYD, Meituan, CCB, Innovent Biologics, Petrochina, Tencent

We analyzed the Hong Kong Connect Scheme for last week and highlighted flows for BYD, Meituan, CCB, Innovent Biologics, Petrochina, Tencent,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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