Founder of Antler Capital

Stanley Tsai, CFA

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In the spirit of the long-awaited UEFA Euro 2020, we present our inaugural "China Financials: Silver Linings Playbook", which summarizes our views on the names that are best positioned to navigate an environment of progressively slower credit growth, tighter liquidity and rising defaults. 
Our screen consists of 100+ stocks in the A/H share universe, as well as a select number of international / non-traditional names that have significant exposures to China's financial system. We have a preference for larger-cap and liquid names, which are then filtered by our opinions on their fundamentals, value, momentum and recent trading volumes. We also try to make our selections versatile and less vulnerable to single-factor movements.
Each player's position on the pitch and the team formation itself convey incremental information about our thoughts on the sector's performance over a three to six-month horizon. To the extent possible, we intend to update our ideas on a periodic basis. This provides a feedback loop with our other ongoing research on the industry.
However, our team selections are not investment recommendations. Instead, they are meant to give structure to our analysis. The playbook allows us to articulate our views on the sector in a timely, concise manner. Our objective is to ensure we don't throw the baby out with the bathwater as sentiments on the sector remain bleak.
With that out of the way, the following is our starting XI. We will dive deeper into our rationale for our selections in the remainder of this insight (Exhibit 1).
<table class="table table-striped">
<tbody>
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<td style="width: 726.047px;">Exhibit 1: China Financials | Silver Linings Playbook</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 726.047px;">
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/213/768/original/image_768460236451623962508577.png?1623962508" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="213768"></figure>

Source: Our analysis
</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
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In the spirit of the long-awaited UEFA Euro 2020, we present our inaugural "China Financials: Silver Linings Playbook", which summarizes our views on the names that are best positioned to navigate an environment of progressively slower credit growth, tighter liquidity and rising defaults. 
Our screen consists of 100+ stocks in the A/H share universe, as well as a select number of international / non-traditional names that have significant exposures to China's financial system. We have a preference for larger-cap and liquid names, which are then filtered by our opinions on their fundamentals, value, momentum and recent trading volumes. We also try to make our selections versatile and less vulnerable to single-factor movements.
Each player's position on the pitch and the team formation itself convey incremental information about our thoughts on the sector's performance over a three to six-month horizon. To the extent possible, we intend to update our ideas on a periodic basis. This provides a feedback loop with our other ongoing research on the industry.
However, our team selections are not investment recommendations. Instead, they are meant to give structure to our analysis. The playbook allows us to articulate our views on the sector in a timely, concise manner. Our objective is to ensure we don't throw the baby out with the bathwater as sentiments on the sector remain bleak.
With that out of the way, the following is our starting XI. We will dive deeper into our rationale for our selections in the remainder of this insight (Exhibit 1).



Exhibit 1: China Financials | Silver Linings Playbook





Source: Our analysis




Related Insights
China Macro: Consumers Remain on the Sidelines, as Their Home Equity Grows 
Glut and Famine: We Might See Snow in China This Summer 
China Macro: PPI Peaks, while CPI Eases Tightening Fears 
China Macro: Exports Disappoint, but It's Still Early in the Game 
Glut and Famine: China's Monetary Conditions a Notch Tighter in May 
ICBC: The Bond Identity | A Zero-Growth Dividend Discount Story 
BOC Aviation (2588 HK): The Stars Don't Look Bigger, but They Do Look Brighter

China Financials: Silver Linings Playbook

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of June 26th.</li>
<li>The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.</li>
<li>We highlight flows for Kingboard, Alibaba, Kingboard Laminates, Smic, Tencent, China Mobile, CNOOC, Pop Mart Intl, Hua Hong Semi, Knowledge Atlas.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of June 26th.
The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.
We highlight flows for Kingboard, Alibaba, Kingboard Laminates, Smic, Tencent, China Mobile, CNOOC, Pop Mart Intl, Hua Hong Semi, Knowledge Atlas.


HK Connect Flows Weekly (Jun 26th): Kingboard, Alibaba, Kingboard Laminates, Smic, Tencent, CNOOC

Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

* European Insurers Leading Global Insurance Capital Preservation: The ebbing economic tide has significantly exposed the European financial system for what it always was - a low profit, weak capital generating, and highly geared sector which has been dangerously close to loss making for over a decade;* Solvency II Regime Not Capturing Risk:The Corona Crisis and monetary/fiscal response have created a perfect storm for insurers with negative risk-free rates and the spike in credit spreads well above 2008 GFC peak is a harbinger of investment default. The usefulness of Solvency II is being tested as ratios are supported by an Ultimate Forward Rate (UFR) which is increasingly at odds with economic reality, while the Volatility Adjustment (VA) is producing a perverse increase in headline ratios. The current environment introduces third party concerns with ratings agencies, credit defaults, and counterparties. Insurers can exhibit solvency ratio increases if corporate credit spreads rise; and  * Asia-Pacific Insurer Solidarity With Western Peer Likely: Global investors should understand the notion of solidarity in time of financial crisis. Europe’s bank and insurance regulator has each called for widespread dividend deferrals/eliminations of its financial institutions. We also fully anticipate solidarity amongst the Asia-Pacific financials with their Western peer. Whilst many of the Asia-Pacific insurers have already adopted some form of the European Solvency II regime, many have also purchased USD-denominated assets in their desperate search for yield in this low/negative rate environment where the impact of credit default and ratings agency downgrades on their investment portfolios is likely to be outsized and challenge capital ratios. We anticipate similar actions with the Asia-Pacific insurers - particularly in Japan, Australia, Taiwan, and South Korea.

* European Insurers Leading Global Insurance Capital Preservation: The ebbing economic tide has significantly exposed the European financial system for what it always was - a low profit, weak capital generating, and highly geared sector which has been dangerously close to loss making for over a decade;* Solvency II Regime Not Capturing Risk:The Corona Crisis and monetary/fiscal response have created a perfect storm for insurers with negative risk-free rates and the spike in credit spreads well above 2008 GFC peak is a harbinger of investment default. The usefulness of Solvency II is being tested as ratios are supported by an Ultimate Forward Rate (UFR) which is increasingly at odds with economic reality, while the Volatility Adjustment (VA) is producing a perverse increase in headline ratios. The current environment introduces third party concerns with ratings agencies, credit defaults, and counterparties. Insurers can exhibit solvency ratio increases if corporate credit spreads rise; and  * Asia-Pacific Insurer Solidarity With Western Peer Likely: Global investors should understand the notion of solidarity in time of financial crisis. Europe’s bank and insurance regulator has each called for widespread dividend deferrals/eliminations of its financial institutions. We also fully anticipate solidarity amongst the Asia-Pacific financials with their Western peer. Whilst many of the Asia-Pacific insurers have already adopted some form of the European Solvency II regime, many have also purchased USD-denominated assets in their desperate search for yield in this low/negative rate environment where the impact of credit default and ratings agency downgrades on their investment portfolios is likely to be outsized and challenge capital ratios. We anticipate similar actions with the Asia-Pacific insurers - particularly in Japan, Australia, Taiwan, and South Korea. 

<div><ul>
<li>
China Loves the "F" Word: The China Bank and Insurance Regulatory Commission's (CBIRC) latest bout of bank capital forbearance in reaction to the negative economic implications of the corona virus pandemic: 1) Banks can now roll over loans to companies at risk of missing payment deadlines and relaxing guidelines on how to categorize overdue debt; and 2) Some banks are also refraining from reporting delinquencies to mainland China's centralized credit-scoring system and allowing borrowers to skip interest payments for up to six months.</li>
<li>
Sick Man of Asia Is a Double Entendre: Not only is mainland China the epicenter for the corona virus outbreak, but it certainly appears its struggling financial system is as ill as the folks in Wuhan. There are increasing and hidden risks on bank balance sheets. Its latest bout of forbearance is reversing a several year trend of vigilance and discipline within its financial system.  </li>
</ul></div>



China Loves the "F" Word: The China Bank and Insurance Regulatory Commission's (CBIRC) latest bout of bank capital forbearance in reaction to the negative economic implications of the corona virus pandemic: 1) Banks can now roll over loans to companies at risk of missing payment deadlines and relaxing guidelines on how to categorize overdue debt; and 2) Some banks are also refraining from reporting delinquencies to mainland China's centralized credit-scoring system and allowing borrowers to skip interest payments for up to six months.

Sick Man of Asia Is a Double Entendre: Not only is mainland China the epicenter for the corona virus outbreak, but it certainly appears its struggling financial system is as ill as the folks in Wuhan. There are increasing and hidden risks on bank balance sheets. Its latest bout of forbearance is reversing a several year trend of vigilance and discipline within its financial system.  


<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of June 12th.</li>
<li>The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.</li>
<li>We highlight flows for Tencent, Kingboard, Knowledge Atlas, Alibaba, Smic, Yangtze Optical Fibre And-H, Kingboard Laminates, China Hongqiao, Ke, Kingdee.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of June 12th.
The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.
We highlight flows for Tencent, Kingboard, Knowledge Atlas, Alibaba, Smic, Yangtze Optical Fibre And-H, Kingboard Laminates, China Hongqiao, Ke, Kingdee.


HK Connect Flows Weekly (Jun 12th): Tencent, Kingboard, Knowledge Atlas, Alibaba, Smic, Ke, Kingdee

China

PICC Property & Casualty is the largest non-life insurance company in mainland China, providing a broad range of property and casualty insurance products. Its offerings include motor vehicle, commercial property, cargo, liability, accidental injury and health, agriculture, credit, surety, and homeowners insurance. The company also offers reinsurance and insurance agency services. It is headquartered in Beijing, China, and was incorporated in 2003.

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PICC Property & Casualty (2328 HK)

China Financials: Silver Linings Playbook

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Stanley Tsai, CFA

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We analyzed southbound Hong Kong connect flows in the past week and highlighted flows for Kingboard (148 HK), Alibaba (9988 HK), Kingboard...

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Asian Insurers - Mea EIOPA

* European Insurers Leading Global Insurance Capital Preservation: The ebbing economic tide has significantly exposed the European financial system...

Thomas J. Monaco

China Banks - Abracadabra

China Loves the "F" Word: The China Bank and Insurance Regulatory Commission's (CBIRC) latest bout of bank capital forbearance in reaction to the...

Thomas J. Monaco

HK Connect Flows Weekly (Jun 12th): Tencent, Kingboard, Knowledge Atlas, Alibaba, Smic, Ke, Kingdee

We analyzed southbound Hong Kong connect flows in the past week and highlighted flows for Tencent (700 HK), Kingboard (148 HK), Knowledge Atlas...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

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