Greater China Equity Long/Short Analyst

Eric Chen

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>PDD stock price has been increasingly driven by TEMU as of late, thanks to TEMU’s fast growth and aggressive geographical expansion.</li>
<li>TEMU rollout introduces more variables to upcoming 4Q results , especially with regard to incremental investments that pose downside risks to earnings, which will sharply decelerate in 4Q and beyond.</li>
<li>We are turning more constructive on TEMU, but acknowledge the challenges in trading off between topline growth and bottom line deceleration in a potentially prolonged tightening cycle. Stay neutral.</li>
</ul>


PDD stock price has been increasingly driven by TEMU as of late, thanks to TEMU’s fast growth and aggressive geographical expansion.
TEMU rollout introduces more variables to upcoming 4Q results , especially with regard to incremental investments that pose downside risks to earnings, which will sharply decelerate in 4Q and beyond.
We are turning more constructive on TEMU, but acknowledge the challenges in trading off between topline growth and bottom line deceleration in a potentially prolonged tightening cycle. Stay neutral.


Pinduoduo: Trading off Between Top-Line Growth and Bottom-Line Slowdown

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zto-express" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23628:1" rel="noopener">ZTO Express (ZTO US)</a> met consensus Q422 EPS estimate despite a miss on Revenue</li>
<li>Management expects to exceed industry volume growth (around +10%) in 2023</li>
<li>Likely obstacles to a sharp earnings recovery are: ASP momentum, "new-old" competition, and a lack of demonstrated cost control</li>
</ul>



ZTO Express (ZTO US) met consensus Q422 EPS estimate despite a miss on Revenue
Management expects to exceed industry volume growth (around +10%) in 2023
Likely obstacles to a sharp earnings recovery are: ASP momentum, "new-old" competition, and a lack of demonstrated cost control


ZTO Express Q4/2022 Results & Guidance:  Moderate Growth in '23, but Also Obstacles

China/Asia TMT

Shawn Yang

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

<ul>
<li>PDD: PDD reveals ambitious goal in Temu offline conference (+)</li>
<li>BABA/JD/VIPS/3690.HK: 5% YoY rebound in January/February retail data, but slower than expected (-/-/-/+)</li>
<li>TikTok：TikTok is ready to launch search ads, minior impact to Google</li>
</ul>


PDD: PDD reveals ambitious goal in Temu offline conference (+)
BABA/JD/VIPS/3690.HK: 5% YoY rebound in January/February retail data, but slower than expected (-/-/-/+)
TikTok：TikTok is ready to launch search ads, minior impact to Google


China TMT Update(Mar.16): BABA/JD/PDD/VIPS/TikTok - PDD Reveals Ambitious Goal in Temu Conference

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

<ul>
<li>Questionable marketing practices and cheap counterfeits could make TEMU a legal nightmare for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pdd-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27250" rel="noopener">PDD Holdings Inc (PDD US).</a>
</li>
<li>Meanwhile, SHEIN doesn’t seem ready to give in easily to the competition. Thus, TEMU could be a significant burden on Pinduoduo’s profitability in the medium-long term.</li>
<li>Considering the discounts, advertisements and promotional spending done by TEMU in the fourth quarter, we think it is unlikely that Pinduoduo will meet the 4Q22 consensus OP of RMB 11.7bn.</li>
</ul>


Questionable marketing practices and cheap counterfeits could make TEMU a legal nightmare for PDD Holdings Inc (PDD US).

Meanwhile, SHEIN doesn’t seem ready to give in easily to the competition. Thus, TEMU could be a significant burden on Pinduoduo’s profitability in the medium-long term.
Considering the discounts, advertisements and promotional spending done by TEMU in the fourth quarter, we think it is unlikely that Pinduoduo will meet the 4Q22 consensus OP of RMB 11.7bn.


TEMU: A Burden on PDD’s Profitability & Possibly a Legal Nightmare

<ul>
<li>PDD: Temu launches in Australia and New Zealand (+); CPNG: Coupang withdraws from delivery service in Japan (+)</li>
<li>ZTO/PDD: Logistics companies increased parcel prices in Yiwu City (+/-)</li>
<li>BILI:BILI hold content creator seminar to discuss video metrics (+)</li>
</ul>


PDD: Temu launches in Australia and New Zealand (+); CPNG: Coupang withdraws from delivery service in Japan (+)
ZTO/PDD: Logistics companies increased parcel prices in Yiwu City (+/-)
BILI:BILI hold content creator seminar to discuss video metrics (+)


China/Asia TMT Update(Mar.14): PDD/CPNG/BILI/ZTO - Logistics Companies Increased Prices;

China

PDD Holdings Inc. is a multinational commerce group that owns and operates a portfolio of businesses. The Company focuses on digital economy so that local communities and small businesses can benefit from the increased productivity and new opportunities. PDD Holdings has built a network of sourcing, logistics, and fulfillment capabilities for its underlying businesses.

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PDD Holdings (PDD US)

Pinduoduo: Trading off Between Top-Line Growth and Bottom-Line Slowdown

We are turning more constructive on TEMU, but acknowledge the need to trade off between topline growth and bottomline pressure for PDD. Wait for...

Eric Chen

ZTO Express Q4/2022 Results & Guidance: Moderate Growth in '23, but Also Obstacles

ZTO guides strong volume growth and potentially better unit economics in '23, but we expect price pressure to return, and the company needs to rein...

Daniel Hellberg

China TMT Update(Mar.16): BABA/JD/PDD/VIPS/TikTok - PDD Reveals Ambitious Goal in Temu Conference

PDD: Temu announced ambitious goal in an open conference; BABA/JD/PDD/VIPS/3690.HK: Positive rebound in January/February retail data, increased...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

TEMU: A Burden on PDD’s Profitability & Possibly a Legal Nightmare

Questionable marketing practices and cheap counterfeits could make TEMU a legal nightmare for PDD Holdings. Meanwhile, SHEIN doesn’t seem ready to...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

China/Asia TMT Update(Mar.14): PDD/CPNG/BILI/ZTO - Logistics Companies Increased Prices;

PDD: Temu launches in Australia and New Zealand (+); CPNG: Coupang withdraws from Japan (+)l ZTO/PDD: Logistics companies increased prices (+/-)l...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

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