Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

* Questionable Reduction in Reserve Coverage: Just as the wheels are about to fall off the bus, the China Bank Regulatory Commission (CBRC) - in their infinite wisdom – decided to allow Chinese banks to reduce the minimum NPL coverage ratio from 150% to 120%, and the minimum LLR cover of total loans from 2.5% to 1.5%.* Knee Jerk Reaction Is Silly – At Least For the 2nd Tier Banks:The 2nd tier banks carry the risk of substantially higher capital requirements and inadequate provisions as these…

* Questionable Reduction in Reserve Coverage: Just as the wheels are about to fall off the bus, the China Bank Regulatory Commission (CBRC) - in their infinite wisdom – decided to allow Chinese banks to reduce the minimum NPL coverage ratio from 150% to 120%, and the minimum LLR cover of total loans from 2.5% to 1.5%.* Knee Jerk Reaction Is Silly – At Least For the 2nd Tier Banks:The 2nd tier banks carry the risk of substantially higher capital requirements and inadequate provisions as these…

China Banks – Can You Say Capital Forbearance?

* Risk Increasing Within Tier 2 Banks:  The 2nd tier banks is looking increasingly vulnerable. Tighter asset management regulations are being implemented in March 2018 which should force the sector to abandon their high level of illiquid assets and promote “real” NAV-type products. This risk has now morphed into a size where confidence in the financial system could erode quickly. * Watch Your Insurers: Mainland Chinese insurers have 50%-60% of their investment portfolios exposed to the weakest…

* Risk Increasing Within Tier 2 Banks:  The 2nd tier banks is looking increasingly vulnerable. Tighter asset management regulations are being implemented in March 2018 which should force the sector to abandon their high level of illiquid assets and promote “real” NAV-type products. This risk has now morphed into a size where confidence in the financial system could erode quickly. * Watch Your Insurers: Mainland Chinese insurers have 50%-60% of their investment portfolios exposed to the weakest…

China Financials – The Accident About to Happen

* Circular 46 enabling the CBRC to properly do its job, as Shanghai Pudong Development Bank  - the first of many high profile names - gets exposed for aggressive accounting.  * HNA, China Wanda, and Anbang Insurance monkey business also expose numerous shenanigans in the corporate sector as well.<h2>Summary</h2>The appointment of Guo Shuqing to head the China Bank Regulatory Commission (CBRC) was a clear sign that the mainland Chinese authorities are intent on cleaning up some of the excesses within the…

* Circular 46 enabling the CBRC to properly do its job, as Shanghai Pudong Development Bank  - the first of many high profile names - gets exposed for aggressive accounting.  * HNA, China Wanda, and Anbang Insurance monkey business also expose numerous shenanigans in the corporate sector as well.SummaryThe appointment of Guo Shuqing to head the China Bank Regulatory Commission (CBRC) was a clear sign that the mainland Chinese authorities are intent on cleaning up some of the excesses within the…

China Banks – Questionable Accounting Practices Exposed

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Other asset growth is surging at China’s banks. It is a line item often associated with assets of limited liquidity, impossible to value, or not easy to fit into a more benign classifications. In the Asian Financial Crisis this was an area of interest: this account included interest in suspense, which was linked to delinquent loans.  Even on a good day, China’s granular data is not wholly clear, so data here is murky. Save to say, that with these so-called other assets now account for more than…

Other asset growth is surging at China’s banks. It is a line item often associated with assets of limited liquidity, impossible to value, or not easy to fit into a more benign classifications. In the Asian Financial Crisis this was an area of interest: this account included interest in suspense, which was linked to delinquent loans.  Even on a good day, China’s granular data is not wholly clear, so data here is murky. Save to say, that with these so-called other assets now account for more than…

Other Assets May Conceal Bad Loans: China

The China Banking Regulatory Commission (CBRC) is concerned about high growth in consumer loans. But not only the pace. It is also worried about misdirected lending into mortgage real estate loans, from other categories of consumer, such as personal or credit card. While impossible to prove, experience in Asia has shown mis-directed lending to be fairly normal, and especially when growth is over-sized.Most of China’s credit growth in recent quarters, is from consumer, which is basically…

The China Banking Regulatory Commission (CBRC) is concerned about high growth in consumer loans. But not only the pace. It is also worried about misdirected lending into mortgage real estate loans, from other categories of consumer, such as personal or credit card. While impossible to prove, experience in Asia has shown mis-directed lending to be fairly normal, and especially when growth is over-sized.Most of China’s credit growth in recent quarters, is from consumer, which is basically…

China Consumer Loans – Risk at Ping An Bank, China Merchants Bank, and System?

China

Ping An Bank Co Ltd provides a full range of commercial banking services including RMB and foreign currency deposit, loan, international and domestic settlement, discount, currency trading, letter of credit, bank guarantee, and other related services.

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Ping An Bank Co Ltd A (000001 CH)

China Banks – Can You Say Capital Forbearance?

* Questionable Reduction in Reserve Coverage: Just as the wheels are about to fall off the bus, the China Bank Regulatory Commission (CBRC) - in...

Thomas J. Monaco

China Financials – The Accident About to Happen

* Risk Increasing Within Tier 2 Banks: The 2nd tier banks is looking increasingly vulnerable. Tighter asset management regulations are being...

Thomas J. Monaco

China Banks – Questionable Accounting Practices Exposed

* Circular 46 enabling the CBRC to properly do its job, as Shanghai Pudong Development Bank - the first of many high profile names - gets exposed...

Thomas J. Monaco

Other Assets May Conceal Bad Loans: China

Other asset growth is surging at China’s banks. It is a line item often associated with assets of limited liquidity, impossible to value, or not...

Daniel Tabbush

China Consumer Loans – Risk at Ping An Bank, China Merchants Bank, and System?

The China Banking Regulatory Commission (CBRC) is concerned about high growth in consumer loans. But not only the pace. It is also worried about...

Daniel Tabbush

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