Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Our GEM bank top picks for 1H 2026 are Banrisul, Bradesco and Ping An Bank for very attractive fundamental valuations with healthy dividends and earnings growth potential</li>
<li>We also have buy recommendations on China Construction Bank (CCB) and Hana Financial, both of which are deep value plays relative to their returns, combined with sound balance sheets</li>
<li>Kotak Mahindra bank is our only sell recommendation for its premium valuation, even among Indian banks, relative to its underwhelming ROE prospects</li>
</ul>


Our GEM bank top picks for 1H 2026 are Banrisul, Bradesco and Ping An Bank for very attractive fundamental valuations with healthy dividends and earnings growth potential
We also have buy recommendations on China Construction Bank (CCB) and Hana Financial, both of which are deep value plays relative to their returns, combined with sound balance sheets
Kotak Mahindra bank is our only sell recommendation for its premium valuation, even among Indian banks, relative to its underwhelming ROE prospects


<ul>
<li>The macro-economic backdrop in China is challenging for banks, with soft economic growth driving worsening credit quality and dovish monetary policy pushing interest margins lower</li>
<li>Nonetheless, China banks balance sheets appear to be relatively robust, and we screen ten large cap banks for contrarian buy opportunities</li>
<li>We focus on two banks; Ping An Bank and CCB are our buy recommendations for their relatively strong returns and sound credit quality metrics</li>
</ul>


The macro-economic backdrop in China is challenging for banks, with soft economic growth driving worsening credit quality and dovish monetary policy pushing interest margins lower
Nonetheless, China banks balance sheets appear to be relatively robust, and we screen ten large cap banks for contrarian buy opportunities
We focus on two banks; Ping An Bank and CCB are our buy recommendations for their relatively strong returns and sound credit quality metrics


Big Cap China Banks – Two Positive Picks

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).</li>
<li>We will maintain our bullish intermediate-term view as long as market dynamics remain healthy and the SPX and ACWI-US are above 5700-5785 and $119-$121.</li>
<li>$125-$126 and $123-$123.50 are short-term supports to watch on ACWI-US; we will maintain our near-term bullish outlook as long as $123 support holds.</li>
</ul>


We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).
We will maintain our bullish intermediate-term view as long as market dynamics remain healthy and the SPX and ACWI-US are above 5700-5785 and $119-$121.
$125-$126 and $123-$123.50 are short-term supports to watch on ACWI-US; we will maintain our near-term bullish outlook as long as $123 support holds.


China and Japan Breaking Out -- Buy; Bullish Outlook Intact; U.S. Dollar (DXY) Remains Weak

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

<ul>
<li>Chailease offers an alternative view on China lending than the large mainstream banks there</li>
<li>Data through 9M24 shows very high growth of its China impairment costs at +62% YoY</li>
<li>Its lending in China is slowing sharply, often a reaction to worsening credit metrics</li>
</ul>


Chailease offers an alternative view on China lending than the large mainstream banks there
Data through 9M24 shows very high growth of its China impairment costs at +62% YoY
Its lending in China is slowing sharply, often a reaction to worsening credit metrics


Chailease - A Window on China Lending, +62% Impairment Costs, Decelerating Loan Growth in China

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Granular data at Hang Seng Bank suggests a greater deterioration in both HK and China than is readily visible in headline numbers</li>
<li>The bank's China pre-tax profit is down 70% YoY in 1H24 and its total stage 3 loans are up 84% YoY in 1H24</li>
<li>The bank's credit-impaired loans for Hong Kong CRE rose from HKD1,081m to HKD13,485m, from 2H23 to 1H24</li>
</ul>


Granular data at Hang Seng Bank suggests a greater deterioration in both HK and China than is readily visible in headline numbers
The bank's China pre-tax profit is down 70% YoY in 1H24 and its total stage 3 loans are up 84% YoY in 1H24
The bank's credit-impaired loans for Hong Kong CRE rose from HKD1,081m to HKD13,485m, from 2H23 to 1H24


Hang Seng Bank - China Profit -70% YoY, Stage 3 Loans +84% YoY, HK CRE Impaired Loan +12.5x (Times)

China

Ping An Bank Co Ltd provides a full range of commercial banking services including RMB and foreign currency deposit, loan, international and domestic settlement, discount, currency trading, letter of credit, bank guarantee, and other related services.

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Ping An Bank Co Ltd A (000001 CH)

GEM Banks - 2026 High Conviction Ideas

Top bank picks for 1H 2026 are Banrisul, Bradesco, and Ping An Bank, also highlighting buys on CCB and Hana Financial for deep value. Sell on...

Victor Galliano

Big Cap China Banks – Two Positive Picks

Despite the challenging economic conditions in China, we select large cap banks Ping An Bank and CCB, both of which offer contrarian buy...

Victor Galliano

China and Japan Breaking Out -- Buy; Bullish Outlook Intact; U.S. Dollar (DXY) Remains Weak

China's Shanghai Composite and Japan's TOPIX and TOPIX Small indexes Breaking Out -- Buy; Bullish Outlook Intact on global equities $ACWI; U.S....

Vermilion Research

Chailease - A Window on China Lending, +62% Impairment Costs, Decelerating Loan Growth in China

Chailease offers an alternative view on China lending, where its loan growth is slowing sharply, where credit costs to loans are rising...

Daniel Tabbush

Hang Seng Bank - China Profit -70% YoY, Stage 3 Loans +84% YoY, HK CRE Impaired Loan +12.5x (Times)

Granular data for Hang Seng Bank provides a good window of underlying credit metrics in both Hong Kong and China, which may not be well visible in...

Daniel Tabbush

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

GEM Banks - 2026 High Conviction Ideas

​Top bank picks for 1H 2026 are Banrisul, Bradesco, and Ping An Bank, also highlighting buys on CCB and Hana Financial for deep value. Sell on...

Victor Galliano

Big Cap China Banks – Two Positive Picks

​Despite the challenging economic conditions in China, we select large cap banks Ping An Bank and CCB, both of which offer contrarian buy...

Victor Galliano

China and Japan Breaking Out -- Buy; Bullish Outlook Intact; U.S. Dollar (DXY) Remains Weak

China's Shanghai Composite and Japan's TOPIX and TOPIX Small indexes Breaking Out -- Buy; Bullish Outlook Intact on global equities $ACWI; U.S....

Vermilion Research

Chailease - A Window on China Lending, +62% Impairment Costs, Decelerating Loan Growth in China

Chailease offers an alternative view on China lending, where its loan growth is slowing sharply, where credit costs to loans are rising...

Daniel Tabbush

Hang Seng Bank - China Profit -70% YoY, Stage 3 Loans +84% YoY, HK CRE Impaired Loan +12.5x (Times)

Granular data for Hang Seng Bank provides a good window of underlying credit metrics in both Hong Kong and China, which may not be well visible in...

Daniel Tabbush

Top bank picks for 1H 2026 are Banrisul, Bradesco, and Ping An Bank, also highlighting buys on CCB and Hana Financial for deep value. Sell on...

Despite the challenging economic conditions in China, we select large cap banks Ping An Bank and CCB, both of which offer contrarian buy...