Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>This is the somewhat-brand-spanking-new Quiddity Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Monitor. We work off the same presentation as the A/H Premium Monitor and HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Monitor.</li>
<li>The same five names continue at the top of the gross flows list - Kweichow Moutai, Contemporary Amperex, Zhongji Innolight, Foxconn, and this week Longi Green Energy. Nets are smaller.</li>
<li>Last week, NORTHBOUND was again net sellers, showing three weeks ago (the only weekly net buy in months) may have been a fluke.</li>
</ul>


This is the somewhat-brand-spanking-new Quiddity Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Monitor. We work off the same presentation as the A/H Premium Monitor and HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Monitor.
The same five names continue at the top of the gross flows list - Kweichow Moutai, Contemporary Amperex, Zhongji Innolight, Foxconn, and this week Longi Green Energy. Nets are smaller.
Last week, NORTHBOUND was again net sellers, showing three weeks ago (the only weekly net buy in months) may have been a fluke.


Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Flows (To 17 Nov 23): Net Sales Again, Dominated by Financials

<ul>
<li>The Quiddity Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Monitor. Like the A/H Premium Monitor and HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Monitor. Lots of Flows/Position Tables and Charts with which to play.</li>
<li>Last week saw NORTHBOUND net SELL RMB 6.7bn of A-shares on decent volume. A-shares out-performed H-shares quite dramatically, taking back H-share gains from the week before, which reversed prior weeks.</li>
<li>This week saw net buying of semiconductor/chip names, and net selling of the EV/Solar/Battery space and buying of the Ping Ans, but most notable was liquid A vs H performance.</li>
</ul>


The Quiddity Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Monitor. Like the A/H Premium Monitor and HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Monitor. Lots of Flows/Position Tables and Charts with which to play.
Last week saw NORTHBOUND net SELL RMB 6.7bn of A-shares on decent volume. A-shares out-performed H-shares quite dramatically, taking back H-share gains from the week before, which reversed prior weeks.
This week saw net buying of semiconductor/chip names, and net selling of the EV/Solar/Battery space and buying of the Ping Ans, but most notable was liquid A vs H performance.


Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Flows (To 19 Apr 2024): NB Net Seller; Semi-Tech Buys, Renewables Sold

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of April 19th.</li>
<li>We estimate the weekly outflows to be US$876.3 million, led by information technology, industrials, materials, and offset by financials, health care, real estate.</li>
<li>We highlight flows for Zijin Mining, China Tourism, Foxconn Industrial Internet, China Citic Bank, Zhongji Innolight.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of April 19th.
We estimate the weekly outflows to be US$876.3 million, led by information technology, industrials, materials, and offset by financials, health care, real estate.
We highlight flows for Zijin Mining, China Tourism, Foxconn Industrial Internet, China Citic Bank, Zhongji Innolight.


Northbound Flows (Apr 19th): Zijin Mining, China Tourism, Foxconn Industrial Internet

Founder of Antler Capital

Stanley Tsai, CFA

Macroeconomics

Monthly Newsletter | May 2021
Monetary data in May suggest that the environment has turned a notch tighter in China. Loan and deposit growth surprised on the downside and signals the beginning of yet another challenging period for the Chinese banks in the months ahead.
Both the asset and liability sides of the banks' balance sheets hit a wall in April. Loan growth missed consensus by a notable margin, driven by a softer mortgage market and slower corporate credit expansion. The net decline in new deposits was more worrying and the risk of disintermediation is on the rise, particularly for the smaller banks.
Deleveraging real estate exposures remains a top priority for the regulators. New mortgage rates have edged up, continuing a trend since 1Q21. Margins have widened slightly for new corporate loans as well. This supports our view that net interest margins have bottomed out and is mildly positive for the H-share G-SIBs.  
We expect the central bank to maintain a neutral policy for the remainder of 2021. The policy rates and loan prime rate will likely hold steady. That said, smaller banks that rely extensively on the interbank market may find it increasingly difficult to source cheap funding. Interbank bank defaults among the unlisted banks are not a remote possibility.
We will remain underweight the H-share banks against MSCI China <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/msci-china-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22895:1" rel="noopener">(MXCN INDEX)</a> until 2Q21 earnings. Meanwhile, we will watch closely whether a sales rebound story will materialize for the life insurers, as bank deposit outflows may find their way into savings polices in the coming quarters.

<div>
Related Insights
</div>
<div>
<ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/icbc-the-prefs-are-junk-and-should-trade-like-it" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:51598" rel="noopener">ICBC: The Prefs Are Junk and Should Trade Like It</a> </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/icbc-the-bond-identity-a-zero-growth-dividend-discount-story" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:51463" rel="noopener">ICBC: The Bond Identity | A Zero-Growth Dividend Discount Story</a> </li>
</ul>
</div>

Monthly Newsletter | May 2021
Monetary data in May suggest that the environment has turned a notch tighter in China. Loan and deposit growth surprised on the downside and signals the beginning of yet another challenging period for the Chinese banks in the months ahead.
Both the asset and liability sides of the banks' balance sheets hit a wall in April. Loan growth missed consensus by a notable margin, driven by a softer mortgage market and slower corporate credit expansion. The net decline in new deposits was more worrying and the risk of disintermediation is on the rise, particularly for the smaller banks.
Deleveraging real estate exposures remains a top priority for the regulators. New mortgage rates have edged up, continuing a trend since 1Q21. Margins have widened slightly for new corporate loans as well. This supports our view that net interest margins have bottomed out and is mildly positive for the H-share G-SIBs.  
We expect the central bank to maintain a neutral policy for the remainder of 2021. The policy rates and loan prime rate will likely hold steady. That said, smaller banks that rely extensively on the interbank market may find it increasingly difficult to source cheap funding. Interbank bank defaults among the unlisted banks are not a remote possibility.
We will remain underweight the H-share banks against MSCI China (MXCN INDEX) until 2Q21 earnings. Meanwhile, we will watch closely whether a sales rebound story will materialize for the life insurers, as bank deposit outflows may find their way into savings polices in the coming quarters.


Related Insights




ICBC: The Prefs Are Junk and Should Trade Like It 

ICBC: The Bond Identity | A Zero-Growth Dividend Discount Story 



Glut and Famine: China's Monetary Conditions a Notch Tighter in May

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of March 22nd.</li>
<li>We estimate the weekly outflows to be US$934.0 million, led by health care, materials, information technology, and offset by communication services, industrials, consumer staples.</li>
<li>We highlight flows for CATL, Wuliangye, Midea, Wuxi Apptec, Moutai, Thunder Software Technology.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of March 22nd.
We estimate the weekly outflows to be US$934.0 million, led by health care, materials, information technology, and offset by communication services, industrials, consumer staples.
We highlight flows for CATL, Wuliangye, Midea, Wuxi Apptec, Moutai, Thunder Software Technology.


Northbound Flows (Mar 22nd): CATL, Wuliangye, Midea, Wuxi Apptec, Moutai, Thunder Software

China

Ping An Bank Co Ltd provides a full range of commercial banking services including RMB and foreign currency deposit, loan, international and domestic settlement, discount, currency trading, letter of credit, bank guarantee, and other related services.

Ping An Bank Co Ltd A (000001 CH)

Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Flows (To 17 Nov 23): Net Sales Again, Dominated by Financials

Mainland Connect (NORTHBOUND) flows were negative again. Nearly RMB 5bn and net sells across both exchanges four days out of five. Financials were...

Travis Lundy

Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Flows (To 19 Apr 2024): NB Net Seller; Semi-Tech Buys, Renewables Sold

NORTHBOUND Connect was again a seller this past week, with batteries/EVs/solar seeing net selling, and banks seeing net buying. As significantly...

Travis Lundy

Northbound Flows (Apr 19th): Zijin Mining, China Tourism, Foxconn Industrial Internet

We analyzed northbound Shanghai/Shenzhen connect flows in the past week and highlight flows for Zijin Mining, China Tourism, Foxconn Industrial...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Glut and Famine: China's Monetary Conditions a Notch Tighter in May

Monetary data in May point to a tighter environment for both lending and funding. Mortgage rates have edged up, but the deposit drain is worrying....

Stanley Tsai, CFA

Northbound Flows (Mar 22nd): CATL, Wuliangye, Midea, Wuxi Apptec, Moutai, Thunder Software

We analyzed northbound Shanghai/Shenzhen connect flows in the past week and highlight flows for CATL, Wuliangye, Midea, Wuxi Apptec, Moutai,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM