Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

Shenton Research

Shenton Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the 3Q2026 Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine as the exchange changed the rule to only disclose north bound position once a quarter.</li>
<li>We estimate that the outflows in 3Q2026 were US$12,576 million and holdings were US$386 billion.</li>
<li>We highlight flows for CATL, EOPTOLINK TECHNOLOGY, NAURA TECHNOLOGY, WEICHAI POWER, ZIJIN MINING, ZHONGJI INNOLIGHT, CMB, WUXI APPTEC, PING AN INSURANCE, MIDEA.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the 3Q2026 Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine as the exchange changed the rule to only disclose north bound position once a quarter.
We estimate that the outflows in 3Q2026 were US$12,576 million and holdings were US$386 billion.
We highlight flows for CATL, EOPTOLINK TECHNOLOGY, NAURA TECHNOLOGY, WEICHAI POWER, ZIJIN MINING, ZHONGJI INNOLIGHT, CMB, WUXI APPTEC, PING AN INSURANCE, MIDEA.


Northbound Flows (3Q2026): CATL, EOPTOLINK TECHNOLOGY, NAURA TECHNOLOGY, WEICHAI POWER, ZIJIN MINING

Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We believe that Chinese banks should suffer less interest margin erosion going forward; policy rate reductions seem to be largely in the past, and deposit re-pricing should help going forward</li>
<li>Credit quality is perceived to be a challenge going forward; we look at headline NPL ratios and cost of risk, adding net write-off ratios to better screen for NPL risks</li>
<li>At first sight, all Chinese banks look like potential value plays; yet only Ping An Bank is our top pick, along with CCB in the mega-caps as our other buy</li>
</ul>


We believe that Chinese banks should suffer less interest margin erosion going forward; policy rate reductions seem to be largely in the past, and deposit re-pricing should help going forward
Credit quality is perceived to be a challenge going forward; we look at headline NPL ratios and cost of risk, adding net write-off ratios to better screen for NPL risks
At first sight, all Chinese banks look like potential value plays; yet only Ping An Bank is our top pick, along with CCB in the mega-caps as our other buy


China Banks – Interest Margin Headwinds Receding, Credit Quality Hurdles Remain

<ul>
<li>Our GEM bank top picks for 1H 2026 are Banrisul, Bradesco and Ping An Bank for very attractive fundamental valuations with healthy dividends and earnings growth potential</li>
<li>We also have buy recommendations on China Construction Bank (CCB) and Hana Financial, both of which are deep value plays relative to their returns, combined with sound balance sheets</li>
<li>Kotak Mahindra bank is our only sell recommendation for its premium valuation, even among Indian banks, relative to its underwhelming ROE prospects</li>
</ul>


Our GEM bank top picks for 1H 2026 are Banrisul, Bradesco and Ping An Bank for very attractive fundamental valuations with healthy dividends and earnings growth potential
We also have buy recommendations on China Construction Bank (CCB) and Hana Financial, both of which are deep value plays relative to their returns, combined with sound balance sheets
Kotak Mahindra bank is our only sell recommendation for its premium valuation, even among Indian banks, relative to its underwhelming ROE prospects


Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index / Technical Analysis

Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index (SHCOMP INDEX)

<ul>
<li>We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).</li>
<li>We will maintain our bullish intermediate-term view as long as market dynamics remain healthy and the SPX and ACWI-US are above 5700-5785 and $119-$121.</li>
<li>$125-$126 and $123-$123.50 are short-term supports to watch on ACWI-US; we will maintain our near-term bullish outlook as long as $123 support holds.</li>
</ul>


We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).
We will maintain our bullish intermediate-term view as long as market dynamics remain healthy and the SPX and ACWI-US are above 5700-5785 and $119-$121.
$125-$126 and $123-$123.50 are short-term supports to watch on ACWI-US; we will maintain our near-term bullish outlook as long as $123 support holds.


China and Japan Breaking Out -- Buy; Bullish Outlook Intact; U.S. Dollar (DXY) Remains Weak

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Granular data at Hang Seng Bank suggests a greater deterioration in both HK and China than is readily visible in headline numbers</li>
<li>The bank's China pre-tax profit is down 70% YoY in 1H24 and its total stage 3 loans are up 84% YoY in 1H24</li>
<li>The bank's credit-impaired loans for Hong Kong CRE rose from HKD1,081m to HKD13,485m, from 2H23 to 1H24</li>
</ul>


Granular data at Hang Seng Bank suggests a greater deterioration in both HK and China than is readily visible in headline numbers
The bank's China pre-tax profit is down 70% YoY in 1H24 and its total stage 3 loans are up 84% YoY in 1H24
The bank's credit-impaired loans for Hong Kong CRE rose from HKD1,081m to HKD13,485m, from 2H23 to 1H24


Hang Seng Bank - China Profit -70% YoY, Stage 3 Loans +84% YoY, HK CRE Impaired Loan +12.5x (Times)

China

Ping An Bank Co Ltd provides a full range of commercial banking services including RMB and foreign currency deposit, loan, international and domestic settlement, discount, currency trading, letter of credit, bank guarantee, and other related services.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Ping An Bank Co Ltd A (000001 CH)

Northbound Flows (3Q2026): CATL, EOPTOLINK TECHNOLOGY, NAURA TECHNOLOGY, WEICHAI POWER, ZIJIN MINING

We analyzed Northbound connect data for 3Q2026 and highlight flows for CATL, EOPTOLINK TECHNOLOGY, NAURA TECHNOLOGY, WEICHAI POWER, ZIJIN MINING,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

China Banks – Interest Margin Headwinds Receding, Credit Quality Hurdles Remain

Chinese banks may face credit quality challenges, but interest margin erosion should lessen with policy rate reductions mainly in the past. Ping...

Victor Galliano

GEM Banks - 2026 High Conviction Ideas

Top bank picks for 1H 2026 are Banrisul, Bradesco, and Ping An Bank, also highlighting buys on CCB and Hana Financial for deep value. Sell on...

Victor Galliano

China and Japan Breaking Out -- Buy; Bullish Outlook Intact; U.S. Dollar (DXY) Remains Weak

China's Shanghai Composite and Japan's TOPIX and TOPIX Small indexes Breaking Out -- Buy; Bullish Outlook Intact on global equities $ACWI; U.S....

Vermilion Research

Hang Seng Bank - China Profit -70% YoY, Stage 3 Loans +84% YoY, HK CRE Impaired Loan +12.5x (Times)

Granular data for Hang Seng Bank provides a good window of underlying credit metrics in both Hong Kong and China, which may not be well visible in...

Daniel Tabbush

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Northbound Flows (3Q2026): CATL, EOPTOLINK TECHNOLOGY, NAURA TECHNOLOGY, WEICHAI POWER, ZIJIN MINING

We analyzed Northbound connect data for 3Q2026 and highlight flows for CATL, EOPTOLINK TECHNOLOGY, NAURA TECHNOLOGY, WEICHAI POWER, ZIJIN MINING,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

China Banks – Interest Margin Headwinds Receding, Credit Quality Hurdles Remain

​Chinese banks may face credit quality challenges, but interest margin erosion should lessen with policy rate reductions mainly in the past. Ping...

Victor Galliano

GEM Banks - 2026 High Conviction Ideas

​Top bank picks for 1H 2026 are Banrisul, Bradesco, and Ping An Bank, also highlighting buys on CCB and Hana Financial for deep value. Sell on...

Victor Galliano

China and Japan Breaking Out -- Buy; Bullish Outlook Intact; U.S. Dollar (DXY) Remains Weak

China's Shanghai Composite and Japan's TOPIX and TOPIX Small indexes Breaking Out -- Buy; Bullish Outlook Intact on global equities $ACWI; U.S....

Vermilion Research

Hang Seng Bank - China Profit -70% YoY, Stage 3 Loans +84% YoY, HK CRE Impaired Loan +12.5x (Times)

Granular data for Hang Seng Bank provides a good window of underlying credit metrics in both Hong Kong and China, which may not be well visible in...

Daniel Tabbush

Chinese banks may face credit quality challenges, but interest margin erosion should lessen with policy rate reductions mainly in the past. Ping...

Top bank picks for 1H 2026 are Banrisul, Bradesco, and Ping An Bank, also highlighting buys on CCB and Hana Financial for deep value. Sell on...