Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>With many real estate developers in China reporting losses, and with greater clarity of their woes, there should be flow through to banks. </li>
<li>Generally, at the top line and in head line bad loans, this is simply not visible, so that one must look to notes to financial statements, other granular data.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-of-communications-co-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:659:1" rel="noopener">Bank Of Communications Co H (3328 HK)</a> shows restructured loans up from RMB41bn to RMB61bn in just six months, with many China banks showing far higher loss loans</li>
</ul>


With many real estate developers in China reporting losses, and with greater clarity of their woes, there should be flow through to banks. 
Generally, at the top line and in head line bad loans, this is simply not visible, so that one must look to notes to financial statements, other granular data.

Bank Of Communications Co H (3328 HK) shows restructured loans up from RMB41bn to RMB61bn in just six months, with many China banks showing far higher loss loans


China Banks - Losses at Developers, Notes to Financials at Some Banks, More Clear than Headlines

<ul>
<li>AIA will certainly define the radar for Asia's insurance company, since its market capitalization is the highest at USD94bn</li>
<li>Insurance companies can see major mark downs from corporate bonds related to China property, and from China Evergrande liquidation</li>
<li>A worsening economic outlook in China and also in Hong Kong, can mean that AIA and large insurers in the region, see bond impairments</li>
</ul>


AIA will certainly define the radar for Asia's insurance company, since its market capitalization is the highest at USD94bn
Insurance companies can see major mark downs from corporate bonds related to China property, and from China Evergrande liquidation
A worsening economic outlook in China and also in Hong Kong, can mean that AIA and large insurers in the region, see bond impairments


AIA - Largest Insurer in Asia Pacific, Risks Heightened with China Evergrande Liquidation

Asia biased macro & technical analysis, Untying The Gordian Knot

Untying The Gordian Knot

Asia biased macro & technical analysis

A differentiated process with a primary focus on Asia. Technical Analysis as core and Macro drivers that could bring the view to fruition & changes that could make the idea fall apart. The objective is to be the best in class, hence corner shop.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Xi-Biden Summit: Geopolitical Tensions Easing, But Underlying Issues Remain</li><li>The Xi-Biden summit has led to a perception of easing geopolitical tensions and a conscious effort to de-escalate the situation.</li><li>Topics included talks on fentanyl, military matters, and artificial intelligence.</li></ul>

Xi-Biden Summit: Geopolitical Tensions Easing, But Underlying Issues RemainThe Xi-Biden summit has led to a perception of easing geopolitical tensions and a conscious effort to de-escalate the situation.Topics included talks on fentanyl, military matters, and artificial intelligence.

Articles from Caixin Global, Caixin Global

Caixin Global

Articles from Caixin Global

Caixin is a media group dedicated to providing financial and business news through periodicals, online content, mobile apps, conferences, books and TV/video programs. Caixin aims to blaze a trail that helps traditional media prosper in the new media age through integrated multimedia platforms.

News from Caixin

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Israel-Palestine /Cover Story: Hamas attack on Israel reignites region’s cycle of violence</li><li>Fraud /: Hong Kong takes aim at banking fraud as complaints surge</li><li>Securities /: China tightens rules for short selling to prop up stocks</li></ul>

Israel-Palestine /Cover Story: Hamas attack on Israel reignites region’s cycle of violenceFraud /: Hong Kong takes aim at banking fraud as complaints surgeSecurities /: China tightens rules for short selling to prop up stocks

CX Daily: Hamas Attack on Israel Reignites Region’s Cycle of Violence

Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

<ul>
<li>In this China banks screen, we focus on the credit quality headwinds going forward, as well as the returns trends that can absorb potentially worsening cost of risk charges</li>
<li>China bank shares continue to be poor performers; yet we see selective contrarian buy opportunities, for those banks with deeply discounted valuations and strong balance sheets including credit quality metrics</li>
<li>We stick with Industrial Bank and CCB as buys, adding Ping An Bank to the buys both of which have attractive valuations; Minsheng remains our fundamental sell</li>
</ul>


In this China banks screen, we focus on the credit quality headwinds going forward, as well as the returns trends that can absorb potentially worsening cost of risk charges
China bank shares continue to be poor performers; yet we see selective contrarian buy opportunities, for those banks with deeply discounted valuations and strong balance sheets including credit quality metrics
We stick with Industrial Bank and CCB as buys, adding Ping An Bank to the buys both of which have attractive valuations; Minsheng remains our fundamental sell


China Banks; Deep Value Despite the Rising Credit Quality Risks

China

Ping An Bank Co Ltd provides a full range of commercial banking services including RMB and foreign currency deposit, loan, international and domestic settlement, discount, currency trading, letter of credit, bank guarantee, and other related services.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
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Ping An Bank Co Ltd A (000001 CH)

China Banks - Losses at Developers, Notes to Financials at Some Banks, More Clear than Headlines

There are losses at China developers and some of this is new or losses are much higher. This is not fully reflected in headline figures at China...

Daniel Tabbush

AIA - Largest Insurer in Asia Pacific, Risks Heightened with China Evergrande Liquidation

Asia Pacific insurance companies can be at risk from mark downs due to the Evergrande liquidation and worsening property risks in China, and also...

Daniel Tabbush

China Aggregate Finance Under the Hood

Xi-Biden Summit: Geopolitical Tensions Easing, But Underlying Issues Remain. The Xi-Biden summit has led to a perception of easing geopolitical...

Untying The Gordian Knot

CX Daily: Hamas Attack on Israel Reignites Region’s Cycle of Violence

Israel-Palestine /Cover Story: Hamas attack on Israel reignites region’s cycle of violence Fraud /: Hong Kong takes aim at banking fraud as...

Caixin Global

China Banks; Deep Value Despite the Rising Credit Quality Risks

China banks face credit quality hurdles, yet there are opportunities with discounted valuations and strong balance sheets; Industrial Bank, CCB...

Victor Galliano

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

China Banks - Losses at Developers, Notes to Financials at Some Banks, More Clear than Headlines

There are losses at China developers and some of this is new or losses are much higher. This is not fully reflected in headline figures at China...

Daniel Tabbush

AIA - Largest Insurer in Asia Pacific, Risks Heightened with China Evergrande Liquidation

Asia Pacific insurance companies can be at risk from mark downs due to the Evergrande liquidation and worsening property risks in China, and also...

Daniel Tabbush

China Aggregate Finance Under the Hood

Xi-Biden Summit: Geopolitical Tensions Easing, But Underlying Issues Remain. The Xi-Biden summit has led to a perception of easing geopolitical...

Untying The Gordian Knot

CX Daily: Hamas Attack on Israel Reignites Region’s Cycle of Violence

Israel-Palestine /Cover Story: Hamas attack on Israel reignites region’s cycle of violence Fraud /: Hong Kong takes aim at banking fraud as...

Caixin Global

China Banks; Deep Value Despite the Rising Credit Quality Risks

​China banks face credit quality hurdles, yet there are opportunities with discounted valuations and strong balance sheets; Industrial Bank, CCB...

Victor Galliano

China banks face credit quality hurdles, yet there are opportunities with discounted valuations and strong balance sheets; Industrial Bank, CCB...