Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

The news of a C19 vaccine is a discrete variable that can affect how banks assess credit risk. With a vaccine there is less risk of economic shutdown, less risk of worsening consumption, and less risk of more unemployment. All of this must mean better statistics for probability of default (PD) and loss given default (LGD). At the same time, the US President-elect is talking about a ‘dark winter’ and urging mass mask-wearing. This comes as many European countries re-shutdown their economies at least to some degree. Banks will be hard-pressed to not view the Biden comments and actions from European countries as negative for credit metrics. This can mean a messy and moving set of credit risk assumptions for banks, making the path forward that much more difficult to ascertain.

The news of a C19 vaccine is a discrete variable that can affect how banks assess credit risk. With a vaccine there is less risk of economic shutdown, less risk of worsening consumption, and less risk of more unemployment. All of this must mean better statistics for probability of default (PD) and loss given default (LGD). At the same time, the US President-elect is talking about a ‘dark winter’ and urging mass mask-wearing. This comes as many European countries re-shutdown their economies at least to some degree. Banks will be hard-pressed to not view the Biden comments and actions from European countries as negative for credit metrics. This can mean a messy and moving set of credit risk assumptions for banks, making the path forward that much more difficult to ascertain.

China Banks – Biden, Vaccine, Provisions

There are few banks that compare to those in China on controlling costs. This will likely be the way forward for others in Asia and globally. Where some have seen costs/assets down considerably and to low levels in any context, others have more room to cut. Of the largest banks by assets, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/postal-savings-bank-of-china" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22848:1" rel="noopener">Postal Savings Bank of China (1658 HK)</a>,<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-merchants-bank-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:714:1" rel="noopener">China Merchants Bank A (600036 CH)</a>and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ping-an-bank-co-ltd-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:681:1" rel="noopener">Ping An Bank Co Ltd A (000001 CH)</a> have seen the least improvement in costs/assets over the past nine years – and where this ratio remains high compared with peers.

There are few banks that compare to those in China on controlling costs. This will likely be the way forward for others in Asia and globally. Where some have seen costs/assets down considerably and to low levels in any context, others have more room to cut. Of the largest banks by assets, Postal Savings Bank of China (1658 HK),China Merchants Bank A (600036 CH)and Ping An Bank Co Ltd A (000001 CH) have seen the least improvement in costs/assets over the past nine years – and where this ratio remains high compared with peers. 

There is a major difference in risk profile of China and US banks. We have discussed at length in our recent report, the significantly higher level of reserves at US banks during 1H20. For China's banks newly accumulated loan loss reserves (LLR) in the 1H20 is almost zero. US banks have seen a doubling of LLR and the ratio of LLR/loans has increased dramatically. This is wholly different to China banks. And this is not the only concern: China's banks have been lending more aggressively than most all others in Asia, while their hybrid capital is increasing as a proportion of total capital.

There is a major difference in risk profile of China and US banks. We have discussed at length in our recent report, the significantly higher level of reserves at US banks during 1H20. For China's banks newly accumulated loan loss reserves (LLR) in the 1H20 is almost zero. US banks have seen a doubling of LLR and the ratio of LLR/loans has increased dramatically. This is wholly different to China banks. And this is not the only concern: China's banks have been lending more aggressively than most all others in Asia, while their hybrid capital is increasing as a proportion of total capital. 

China Banks – Subtle Risk Deterioration

Global Bank Equity Specialist, Creative Portfolios

Paul Hollingworth

Global Bank Equity Specialist

Creative Portfolios

Based on reported data for FY18, we delve into Chinese banks and see how they are progressing with our value-quality gauge, The PH Score™.<div class="content-highlight">The PH Score™ is a fundamental momentum-quantamental model that scores banks according to changes in value-quality. The Score encompasses Profitability, Operating Efficiency, Liquidity, Capital, Asset Quality, Coverage and a valuation gauge. Scores lie between 0 and 10, with higher rankings representing more positive signs</div>

Based on reported data for FY18, we delve into Chinese banks and see how they are progressing with our value-quality gauge, The PH Score™.The PH Score™ is a fundamental momentum-quantamental model that scores banks according to changes in value-quality. The Score encompasses Profitability, Operating Efficiency, Liquidity, Capital, Asset Quality, Coverage and a valuation gauge. Scores lie between 0 and 10, with higher rankings representing more positive signs

Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

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China Loves the "F" Word: The China Bank and Insurance Regulatory Commission's (CBIRC) latest bout of bank capital forbearance in reaction to the negative economic implications of the corona virus pandemic: 1) Banks can now roll over loans to companies at risk of missing payment deadlines and relaxing guidelines on how to categorize overdue debt; and 2) Some banks are also refraining from reporting delinquencies to mainland China's centralized credit-scoring system and allowing borrowers to skip interest payments for up to six months.</li>
<li>
Sick Man of Asia Is a Double Entendre: Not only is mainland China the epicenter for the corona virus outbreak, but it certainly appears its struggling financial system is as ill as the folks in Wuhan. There are increasing and hidden risks on bank balance sheets. Its latest bout of forbearance is reversing a several year trend of vigilance and discipline within its financial system.  </li>
</ul></div>



China Loves the "F" Word: The China Bank and Insurance Regulatory Commission's (CBIRC) latest bout of bank capital forbearance in reaction to the negative economic implications of the corona virus pandemic: 1) Banks can now roll over loans to companies at risk of missing payment deadlines and relaxing guidelines on how to categorize overdue debt; and 2) Some banks are also refraining from reporting delinquencies to mainland China's centralized credit-scoring system and allowing borrowers to skip interest payments for up to six months.

Sick Man of Asia Is a Double Entendre: Not only is mainland China the epicenter for the corona virus outbreak, but it certainly appears its struggling financial system is as ill as the folks in Wuhan. There are increasing and hidden risks on bank balance sheets. Its latest bout of forbearance is reversing a several year trend of vigilance and discipline within its financial system.  


China

Ping An Bank Co Ltd provides a full range of commercial banking services including RMB and foreign currency deposit, loan, international and domestic settlement, discount, currency trading, letter of credit, bank guarantee, and other related services.

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Ping An Bank Co Ltd A (000001 CH)

China Banks – Biden, Vaccine, Provisions

There are conflicting factors at play in assessing banks, including Chinese banks, which will making the path forward that much more difficult to...

Daniel Tabbush

China Banks – Controlling Costs

China banks are ahead on controlling costs. This will likely be the way for others in Asia and globally. PSBC, CMB and Ping An Bank have seen the...

Daniel Tabbush

China Banks – Subtle Risk Deterioration

There is a major difference in risk profile of China and US banks. Here we are specifically referring to the degree of accumulated loan loss...

Daniel Tabbush

Chinese Financials: Winners and Losers

Based on reported data for FY18, we delve into Chinese banks and see how they are progressing with our value-quality gauge, The PH Score™.The PH...

Paul Hollingworth

China Banks - Abracadabra

China Loves the "F" Word: The China Bank and Insurance Regulatory Commission's (CBIRC) latest bout of bank capital forbearance in reaction to the...

Thomas J. Monaco

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