Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>A better week for HK stocks as A-shares rebound on National Team buying, a PBOC RRR cut, and potentially other measures to boost the market. Foreigners stopped selling; that helped.</li>
<li>Southbound saw decent net buying on ETFs late in the week, but otherwise the week was pretty flat in single-stock land - net buying of SOEs, selling of tech.</li>
<li>Net SOUTHBOUND buying was HK$4.5bn on the week, mostly through Shanghai (interestingly, 90+% of the decent NORTHBOUND buy was also through Shanghai). </li>
</ul>


A better week for HK stocks as A-shares rebound on National Team buying, a PBOC RRR cut, and potentially other measures to boost the market. Foreigners stopped selling; that helped.
Southbound saw decent net buying on ETFs late in the week, but otherwise the week was pretty flat in single-stock land - net buying of SOEs, selling of tech.
Net SOUTHBOUND buying was HK$4.5bn on the week, mostly through Shanghai (interestingly, 90+% of the decent NORTHBOUND buy was also through Shanghai). 


HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 26 Jan 2024); ETFs and High Div SOEs Again BIG Buys, Tech Sold

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Shanghai Friendess Electronic / Event-Driven

Shanghai Friendess Electronic (688188 CH)

<ul>
<li>Money continues to flow into mainland China ETFs taking the total inflows since 18 July to over US$25bn. This has likely helped stabilise the market and prevent a bigger fall.</li>
<li>The inflows continue to be largest on ETFs tracking headline indices - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-shenzhen-csi-300-inde" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22906:1" rel="noopener">CSI 300</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sse-science-and-technology-innovation-board-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29279:1" rel="noopener">STAR50</a>, CSI1000, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/csi-smallcap-500-index-shang" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35347:1" rel="noopener">CSI 500</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-stock-exchange-sse-50-a-share-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31073:1" rel="noopener">SSE50</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chinext-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25483:1" rel="noopener">ChiNext</a>. Plus there are inflows on some sectoral and thematic ETFs.</li>
<li>The skew between stocks gaining 20%+ over the period vs those dropping -20% or more has improved significantly over the last week.</li>
</ul>


Money continues to flow into mainland China ETFs taking the total inflows since 18 July to over US$25bn. This has likely helped stabilise the market and prevent a bigger fall.
The inflows continue to be largest on ETFs tracking headline indices - CSI 300, STAR50, CSI1000, CSI 500, SSE50, ChiNext. Plus there are inflows on some sectoral and thematic ETFs.
The skew between stocks gaining 20%+ over the period vs those dropping -20% or more has improved significantly over the last week.


China ETFs: Inflows Continue to Support the Market

<ul>
<li>Nearly US$20bn has flowed into mainland China listed ETFs since 18 July and could be driven by the National Team supporting the market.</li>
<li>Most of the inflows have been focused on large cap indices including <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-shenzhen-csi-300-inde" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22906:1" rel="noopener">CSI 300</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sse-science-and-technology-innovation-board-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29279:1" rel="noopener">STAR50</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/csi-smallcap-500-index-shang" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35347:1" rel="noopener">CSI 500</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-stock-exchange-sse-50-a-share-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31073:1" rel="noopener">SSE50</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chinext-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25483:1" rel="noopener">ChiNext</a> and other sectoral and thematic ETFs.</li>
<li>The largest impact has been on the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sse-science-and-technology-innovation-board-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29279:1" rel="noopener">SSE STAR50 (STAR50 INDEX)</a> constituents, but that has not stopped the slide in the stocks.</li>
</ul>


Nearly US$20bn has flowed into mainland China listed ETFs since 18 July and could be driven by the National Team supporting the market.
Most of the inflows have been focused on large cap indices including CSI 300, STAR50, CSI 500, SSE50, ChiNext and other sectoral and thematic ETFs.
The largest impact has been on the SSE STAR50 (STAR50 INDEX) constituents, but that has not stopped the slide in the stocks.


China: Huge ETF Inflows & Impact on Stocks

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>We maintain Ping An as one of our sector top picks, and lift TP to HK$90 based on SOTP, by 1) rolling forward to FY26E forecasts, and 2) fine-tuning net earnings and NBV growth in FY25-27E.</li><li>On a like-for-like basis, we estimate 12% YoY growth of Group OPAT in FY25E to RMB136bn, which implies ~46% YoY increase in 4Q25 (vs.3Q25: +15.2%).</li><li>The 4Q acceleration could be driven by 1) robust L&amp;H OPAT growth supported with improving operating variance and investment service result; 2) asset management on a YoY decline of impairment loss thanks to capital market recovery; and 3) P&amp;C’s robust underwriting profit. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We maintain Ping An as one of our sector top picks, and lift TP to HK$90 based on SOTP, by 1) rolling forward to FY26E forecasts, and 2) fine-tuning net earnings and NBV growth in FY25-27E.On a like-for-like basis, we estimate 12% YoY growth of Group OPAT in FY25E to RMB136bn, which implies ~46% YoY increase in 4Q25 (vs.3Q25: +15.2%).The 4Q acceleration could be driven by 1) robust L&amp;H OPAT growth supported with improving operating variance and investment service result; 2) asset management on a YoY decline of impairment loss thanks to capital market recovery; and 3) P&amp;C’s robust underwriting profit. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Ping An (2318 HK) - Banca Fuelling NBV Growth in Jumpstart Sales...

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>The NFRA reported 1Q26 premiums. Total insurance premium grew 6.3% YoY to RMB2.31tn, with industry premium modestly up by 1.4% YoY in March.</li><li>The divergence between personal life and P&amp;C premiums persisted in 1Q26 with the former marking +7.9% to RMB1.93tn and the latter falling 1.3% YoY to RMB382bn, indicating a continued strong momentum during life jumpstart sales, and a marginal recovery in P&amp;C with auto/non-auto premiums up 1.8%/ 2.7% YoY in Mar (vs. Feb: -0.3%/+0.3%).</li><li>We see three key trends in 1Q26 including 1) Life sustained robust growth in Mar, after achieving a compelling increase during the jumpstart period; 2) P&amp;C saw a marginal rebound in premium growth supported by a turnaround in both auto and non-auto segments; and 3) Health and accident (H&amp;A) insurance remained the two key drivers of P&amp;C non-auto premium growth, sustaining doubledigit increases in Mar 2026. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The NFRA reported 1Q26 premiums. Total insurance premium grew 6.3% YoY to RMB2.31tn, with industry premium modestly up by 1.4% YoY in March.The divergence between personal life and P&amp;C premiums persisted in 1Q26 with the former marking +7.9% to RMB1.93tn and the latter falling 1.3% YoY to RMB382bn, indicating a continued strong momentum during life jumpstart sales, and a marginal recovery in P&amp;C with auto/non-auto premiums up 1.8%/ 2.7% YoY in Mar (vs. Feb: -0.3%/+0.3%).We see three key trends in 1Q26 including 1) Life sustained robust growth in Mar, after achieving a compelling increase during the jumpstart period; 2) P&amp;C saw a marginal rebound in premium growth supported by a turnaround in both auto and non-auto segments; and 3) Health and accident (H&amp;A) insurance remained the two key drivers of P&amp;C non-auto premium growth, sustaining doubledigit increases in Mar 2026. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

China Insurance - 1-3M26: Life growth resilient and P&C marginally recovered in March

China

Ping An Insurance (Group) Company of China Limited provides products and services through its five ecosystems in financial services, healthcare, auto services, real estate services and Smart City solutions. The Group's insurance business writes property, casualty, and life insurance products.

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Ping An Insurance Group of (601318 CH)

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 26 Jan 2024); ETFs and High Div SOEs Again BIG Buys, Tech Sold

SOUTHBOUND flows were positive on the week but most of the net buying was in the big two ETFs. The trend of buying low PER high div SOEs continues....

Travis Lundy

China ETFs: Inflows Continue to Support the Market

Money continues to flow into mainland China ETFs with the total inflows since 18 July over US$25bn. This has likely helped stabilise the market and...

Brian Freitas

China: Huge ETF Inflows & Impact on Stocks

Nearly US$20bn has flowed into mainland China ETFs and could be driven by National Team supporting the market. There are many stocks where the ETFs...

Brian Freitas

Ping An (2318 HK) - Banca Fuelling NBV Growth in Jumpstart Sales...

We maintain Ping An as one of our sector top picks, and lift TP to HK$90 based on SOTP, by 1) rolling forward to FY26E forecasts, and 2) fine...

CMB International

China Insurance - 1-3M26: Life growth resilient and P&C marginally recovered in March

The NFRA reported 1Q26 premiums. Total insurance premium grew 6.3% YoY to RMB2.31tn, with industry premium modestly up by 1.4% YoY in March.

CMB International

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