Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The SPX, Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM) continue to hold above short-term support at their respective 20-day MAs (currently 5966 on SPX, $526.50 on QQQ, $208.75 on IWM)</li>
<li>As long as 20-day MA supports hold, our near-term bullish outlook that we have had since our 4/22/25 Compass remains intact.</li>
<li>We will need to see breakdowns below 20-day MA supports in order to expect any meaningful near-term downside.</li>
</ul>


The SPX, Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM) continue to hold above short-term support at their respective 20-day MAs (currently 5966 on SPX, $526.50 on QQQ, $208.75 on IWM)
As long as 20-day MA supports hold, our near-term bullish outlook that we have had since our 4/22/25 Compass remains intact.
We will need to see breakdowns below 20-day MA supports in order to expect any meaningful near-term downside.


20-Day MA Supports Holding on SPX, QQQ, IWM; Bullish Outlook Intact

<ul>
<li>Our outlook remains bullish, and since late-December we have been suggesting to use the pullback as a buying opportunity.</li>
<li>Most recent/highest conviction "buy-the-dip" call came last week (1/14/25) amid all major indexes testing supports (SPX, QQQ, DJI, IJH, VXF, IWM, ARKK, SMH), bullish breadth divergences, other ongoing bullish signals.</li>
<li>Those dip buys are finally paying off, with all these indexes breaking out from 1+month consolidations. The SPX has gapped-up on four of past five trading days, indicating significant strength</li>
</ul>


Our outlook remains bullish, and since late-December we have been suggesting to use the pullback as a buying opportunity.
Most recent/highest conviction "buy-the-dip" call came last week (1/14/25) amid all major indexes testing supports (SPX, QQQ, DJI, IJH, VXF, IWM, ARKK, SMH), bullish breadth divergences, other ongoing bullish signals.
Those dip buys are finally paying off, with all these indexes breaking out from 1+month consolidations. The SPX has gapped-up on four of past five trading days, indicating significant strength


Local Tops for 10-Year Treasury Yield, DXY, and Crude Oil; All Major Indexes Breaking Out. Bullish

<ul>
<li>The Fed injected some volatility into the market after their December meeting, as they noted an uncertain inflation outlook and the SEP less expected rate cuts for 2025.</li>
<li>We discussed in our latest report (12/23/24 ETF Pathfinder), and continue to believe, that this is a buying opportunity.</li>
<li>Market dynamics remain risk-on, the SPX remains above 5850 (a key support level we have discussed since late-November), mid-caps (IJH) and small-caps (IWM) are above supports at $61.50 and $218</li>
</ul>


The Fed injected some volatility into the market after their December meeting, as they noted an uncertain inflation outlook and the SEP less expected rate cuts for 2025.
We discussed in our latest report (12/23/24 ETF Pathfinder), and continue to believe, that this is a buying opportunity.
Market dynamics remain risk-on, the SPX remains above 5850 (a key support level we have discussed since late-November), mid-caps (IJH) and small-caps (IWM) are above supports at $61.50 and $218


Semiconductors Re-Emerge as Leadership; $SPX $QQQ $IWM Outlook Remains Bullish

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Plexus Corp. delivered a robust fiscal third quarter 2024 with revenues of $961 million, aligning with guidance.</li><li>Key sector performance varied, with particular strength in Aerospace and Defense, though tempered by industrial sector declines due to design changes and customer delays in new product introductions.</li><li>Despite these fluctuations, non-GAAP operating margins rose impressively to 5.8%, surpassing expectations due to increased efficiency and solid cost management.</li></ul>

Plexus Corp. delivered a robust fiscal third quarter 2024 with revenues of $961 million, aligning with guidance.Key sector performance varied, with particular strength in Aerospace and Defense, though tempered by industrial sector declines due to design changes and customer delays in new product introductions.Despite these fluctuations, non-GAAP operating margins rose impressively to 5.8%, surpassing expectations due to increased efficiency and solid cost management.

Plexus Corp.: The 4 Biggest Challenges In Its Path! - Major Drivers

<ul><li>Plexus Corp recently reported fiscal second quarter 2024 results which showcased the company's capacity to maintain a robust growth trajectory and strong operational performance amidst a mixed business environment.</li><li>Plexus announced fiscal second quarter revenue of $967 million, which sat at the top end of the company's guidance, with a non-GAAP EPS of $0.94.</li><li>The non-GAAP operating margin was reported at 4.2%.</li></ul>

Plexus Corp recently reported fiscal second quarter 2024 results which showcased the company's capacity to maintain a robust growth trajectory and strong operational performance amidst a mixed business environment.Plexus announced fiscal second quarter revenue of $967 million, which sat at the top end of the company's guidance, with a non-GAAP EPS of $0.94.The non-GAAP operating margin was reported at 4.2%.

Plexus Corp: Expanding Market Presence in Industrial Sector - Major Drivers

United States

Plexus Corp. is a participant in the electronics manufacturing services (EMS) industry, providing product design, supply chain, materials management, manufacturing, test, fulfillment, and aftermarket solutions to branded product companies in the wireline and networking, wireless infrastructure, medical, industrial and commercial, defense, security, and aerospace market sectors.

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Plexus Corp (PLXS US)

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Local Tops for 10-Year Treasury Yield, DXY, and Crude Oil; All Major Indexes Breaking Out. Bullish

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Plexus Corp.: The 4 Biggest Challenges In Its Path! - Major Drivers

Plexus Corp. delivered a robust fiscal third quarter 2024 with revenues of $961 million, aligning with guidance. Key sector performance varied,...

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Plexus Corp: Expanding Market Presence in Industrial Sector - Major Drivers

Plexus Corp recently reported fiscal second quarter 2024 results which showcased the company's capacity to maintain a robust growth trajectory and...

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