Fixed Income and Currency Strategist

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

FX & Rates

Even though EM rate curves have been flattening in line with the US, rates in EM have underperformed the rally in the US. The main difference is unlike the US, and DM more generally, emerging countries have broadly started tightening monetary policy. Real rates in EM are thus much higher than in the US. We continue to find the spread of EM to the US attractive, especially with EM rates volatility dropping below its long-term average.Separately, the attached file is a snapshot of the EM 10y rates market in which we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among countries by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other countries based on their respective betas to an EM rates index.

Even though EM rate curves have been flattening in line with the US, rates in EM have underperformed the rally in the US. The main difference is unlike the US, and DM more generally, emerging countries have broadly started tightening monetary policy. Real rates in EM are thus much higher than in the US. We continue to find the spread of EM to the US attractive, especially with EM rates volatility dropping below its long-term average.Separately, the attached file is a snapshot of the EM 10y rates market in which we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among countries by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other countries based on their respective betas to an EM rates index.

Rates 10y Dashboard: Higher Real Rates in EM than in DM

In our monthly trade ideas recap note, we provide a performance update of the trade recommendations in FX and rates that we make weekly and discuss the new recommendations as well as those we closed over the past month. We have made a total of 21 trade recommendations so far, of which 15 are in the money.

In our monthly trade ideas recap note, we provide a performance update of the trade recommendations in FX and rates that we make weekly and discuss the new recommendations as well as those we closed over the past month. We have made a total of 21 trade recommendations so far, of which 15 are in the money.

Alpha Bites: Performance Summary of Trade Recommendations – August 2021

In this week’s Alpha Bites, we recommend receiving the 5-year rate in Czech Republic vs paying the 5-year rate in Poland via IRS. Poland’s rates have outperformed its regional peers on the back of the uber-dovish monetary policy stance of the central bank and the June CPI reading coming off slightly from May. We continue to find the nominal and real rates in Poland to be too low in comparison with other countries, particularly Czechia, and unlikely to sustain at current levels with inflation running hot on the back of easy monetary and fiscal policies.

In this week’s Alpha Bites, we recommend receiving the 5-year rate in Czech Republic vs paying the 5-year rate in Poland via IRS. Poland’s rates have outperformed its regional peers on the back of the uber-dovish monetary policy stance of the central bank and the June CPI reading coming off slightly from May. We continue to find the nominal and real rates in Poland to be too low in comparison with other countries, particularly Czechia, and unlikely to sustain at current levels with inflation running hot on the back of easy monetary and fiscal policies.

Alpha Bites: Receive Czech 5y Vs Pay Poland 5y Rate

Poland

A vanilla interest rate swap us an agreement between two counterparties to exchange cashflows (fixed vs floating) in the same currency. This agreement is often used by counterparties to change their fixed cashflows to floating or vice versa. The payments are made during the life of the swap in the frequency that is pre-established by the counterparties.

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PLN 5Y (PZSW5 CURNCY)

Rates 10y Dashboard: Higher Real Rates in EM than in DM

Real rates in EM are much higher than in the US, making the spread of EM local debt to the US attractive, especially with EM rates volatility...

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

Alpha Bites: Performance Summary of Trade Recommendations – August 2021

We provide a performance update of all our trade recommendations along with discussing the new trades from last month. We have made a total of 21...

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

Alpha Bites: Receive Czech 5y Vs Pay Poland 5y Rate

Poland’s nominal and real rates are very low compared with other countries, particularly Czech, and are unlikely to sustain with inflation running...

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)