Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst, Real Estate Foresight

Robert Ciemniak

Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst

Real Estate Foresight

Since 2012, REF has been helping investors with market research, project due diligence, and strategy development. This has ranged from detailed assessments and estimates on distressed developers' project portfolios to market due diligence on specific projects to macro-level questions linked to demand for commodities. The unique combination of the housing markets and developer data from data partner China Index Academy in Beijing, primary research, and technology-powered alternative data collection from public sources result in a valuable content set used in REF analytics and reports.

Predictive Analytics for China Property

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>In this webinar, part of Real Estate Foresight's 12th annual China Property Outlook, we share our views on 2024 for the China housing markets</li>
<li>We explore several themes, incl. the latest Whitelist approvals by local governments and a wave of related announcements</li>
<li>The webinar presentation was recorded on Feb 6, 2024. You can also view <a href="https://vimeo.com/911098574/5874dfd757?share=copy" target="_blank" rel="noopener">this 3-minute version</a> with a few highlights.</li>
</ul>


In this webinar, part of Real Estate Foresight's 12th annual China Property Outlook, we share our views on 2024 for the China housing markets
We explore several themes, incl. the latest Whitelist approvals by local governments and a wave of related announcements
The webinar presentation was recorded on Feb 6, 2024. You can also view this 3-minute version with a few highlights.


Webinar Recording: 12th Annual China Property Outlook by Real Estate Foresight, "The Big Shifts"

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

Beijing Airport High Tech A / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There could be up to 8 adds and 3 deletes for the CSI All Share Real Estate Sector Index in June.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 3.2% at the rebalance leading to a round-trip trade of CNY 456m. There are a few stocks with over 0.5x ADV to trade.</li>
<li>The forecast adds and deletes have performed in line over the last few months, and the announcement of the changes could lead to short-term outperformance.</li>
</ul>


There could be up to 8 adds and 3 deletes for the CSI All Share Real Estate Sector Index in June.
Estimated one-way turnover is 3.2% at the rebalance leading to a round-trip trade of CNY 456m. There are a few stocks with over 0.5x ADV to trade.
The forecast adds and deletes have performed in line over the last few months, and the announcement of the changes could lead to short-term outperformance.


CSI All Share Real Estate Sector Index Rebalance Preview: Multiple Changes in June

<ul>
<li>There are more 'less negative' signs in the latest data for October/November sales, especially in the weekly data</li>
<li>The policy measures for property, perceived broadly as rather underwhelming, suggest the goal of 'stabilizing it' remains clear, with caution about the excessive support for the sector </li>
<li>In this note, we summarize where things stand with China housing - looking at home sales, prices, inventory, land, major cities, and the policy over the past few months</li>
</ul>


There are more 'less negative' signs in the latest data for October/November sales, especially in the weekly data
The policy measures for property, perceived broadly as rather underwhelming, suggest the goal of 'stabilizing it' remains clear, with caution about the excessive support for the sector 
In this note, we summarize where things stand with China housing - looking at home sales, prices, inventory, land, major cities, and the policy over the past few months


Articles from Caixin Global, Caixin Global

Caixin Global

Articles from Caixin Global

Caixin is a media group dedicated to providing financial and business news through periodicals, online content, mobile apps, conferences, books and TV/video programs. Caixin aims to blaze a trail that helps traditional media prosper in the new media age through integrated multimedia platforms.

News from Caixin

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Hydrogen / In Depth: In China, hydrogen’s star rises</li><li><p>China-Vietnam /: China, Vietnam leaders agree to strengthen ties as Xi makes official visit</p></li><li><p>Meeting /: China’s top leadership pledges strong focus on growth next year</p></li></ul>

Hydrogen / In Depth: In China, hydrogen’s star risesChina-Vietnam /: China, Vietnam leaders agree to strengthen ties as Xi makes official visitMeeting /: China’s top leadership pledges strong focus on growth next year

CX Daily: In China, Hydrogen’s Star Rises 

<ul><li>Investment in Chinese real estate contracted 9.1% in the first nine months of 2023 from a year earlier, official data showed Wednesday, a bigger drop than in the first eight months of the year.</li><li>The decline means developers are spending less buying land and building housing. Construction starts measured by floor area fell 23.4% year-on-year, and total ongoing construction area dropped 7.1%, according to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).</li><li>The declines reflect developers’ lack of confidence amid a prolonged crisis in the sector. Property sales by floor area decreased 7.5% in January-September from a year earlier, compared with a 7.1% contraction in the first eight months.</li></ul>

Investment in Chinese real estate contracted 9.1% in the first nine months of 2023 from a year earlier, official data showed Wednesday, a bigger drop than in the first eight months of the year.The decline means developers are spending less buying land and building housing. Construction starts measured by floor area fell 23.4% year-on-year, and total ongoing construction area dropped 7.1%, according to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).The declines reflect developers’ lack of confidence amid a prolonged crisis in the sector. Property sales by floor area decreased 7.5% in January-September from a year earlier, compared with a 7.1% contraction in the first eight months.

Investment in Chinese Real Estate Dropped 9.1% in First Three Quarters

China

Poly Real Estate Group Co., Ltd. mainly develops and sells residential homes. The company is also in the business of leasing and rental of real estates, and property management.

Poly Real Estate Group Co., Ltd (600048 CH)

Price Gauge
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Poly Real Estate Group Co., Ltd (600048 CH)

Webinar Recording: 12th Annual China Property Outlook by Real Estate Foresight, "The Big Shifts"

China: As the Two Meetings kick off this week, our China Property Outlook 2024 webinar from February dives deeper into the China housing market,...

Robert Ciemniak

China Housing: "Stabilize It"

In this note, we summarize where things stand with China housing as of Nov 19, 20204 - looking at home sales, prices, inventory, land, major...

Robert Ciemniak

CX Daily: In China, Hydrogen’s Star Rises

Hydrogen / In Depth: In China, hydrogen’s star rises In the quest for cleaner energy sources, hydrogen’s star is rising. China is just one of a...

Caixin Global

Investment in Chinese Real Estate Dropped 9.1% in First Three Quarters

Investment in Chinese real estate contracted 9.1% in the first nine months of 2023 from a year earlier, official data showed Wednesday, a bigger...

Caixin Global

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Webinar Recording: 12th Annual China Property Outlook by Real Estate Foresight, "The Big Shifts"

China: As the Two Meetings kick off this week, our China Property Outlook 2024 webinar from February dives deeper into the China housing market,...

Robert Ciemniak

CSI All Share Real Estate Sector Index Rebalance Preview: Multiple Changes in June

There could be 8 adds and 3 deletes for the index in June. Estimated one-way turnover is 3.2% at the rebalance leading to a round-trip trade of CNY...

Brian Freitas

China Housing: "Stabilize It"

In this note, we summarize where things stand with China housing as of Nov 19, 20204 - looking at home sales, prices, inventory, land, major...

Robert Ciemniak

CX Daily: In China, Hydrogen’s Star Rises

Hydrogen / In Depth: In China, hydrogen’s star rises In the quest for cleaner energy sources, hydrogen’s star is rising. China is just one of a...

Caixin Global

Investment in Chinese Real Estate Dropped 9.1% in First Three Quarters

Investment in Chinese real estate contracted 9.1% in the first nine months of 2023 from a year earlier, official data showed Wednesday, a bigger...

Caixin Global