Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist, India Independent Insight

Pranav Bhavsar

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist

India Independent Insight

India Independent Insight (Iii), is a collaborative initiative by Nitin Mangal and Pranav Bhavsar. Nitin Mangal is a SEBI registered Independent Analyst (SEBI Reg. INH 000004723) and Pranav Bhavsar is a SEBI registered Investment Advisor (SEBI Reg. INA 000011510). With Iii our endeavor is to deliver Independent & Unbiased research on Indian Mid to large cap companies. Iii typically provides counter consensus views which cover forensic research along with on-ground primary research. Our research process is a combination of a deep dive on accounting, governance and channel checks.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>In this Insight, we review the recent performance of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/abb-india-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8703:1" rel="noopener">ABB India Ltd (ABB IN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/siemens-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6440:1" rel="noopener">Siemens Ltd (SIEM IN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/polycab-india-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27877:1" rel="noopener">Polycab India (POLYCAB IN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/havells-india-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9158:1" rel="noopener">Havells India (HAVL IN)</a> </li>
<li>Most companies have performed in line with our expectations, except for Polycab, which has exceeded our performance expectations.</li>
<li>We continue to favour ABB over Siemens (ABB/SIEM), Polycab over Havells (POLYCAB/HAVL)</li>
</ul>


In this Insight, we review the recent performance of ABB India Ltd (ABB IN), Siemens Ltd (SIEM IN), Polycab India (POLYCAB IN) and Havells India (HAVL IN) 
Most companies have performed in line with our expectations, except for Polycab, which has exceeded our performance expectations.
We continue to favour ABB over Siemens (ABB/SIEM), Polycab over Havells (POLYCAB/HAVL)


India Industrials | Quarterly Update - ABB India, Siemens, Polycab and Havells

Equity L/S Analyst | Forensic Accounting | India, Yellowstone Equity

Ankit Agrawal, CFA

Equity L/S Analyst | Forensic Accounting | India

Creating Wealth through Alpha and Compounding

Yellowstone Equity

Providing unbiased and independent research on Indian equities to global institutions and individual investors


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Regulatory Disclosure: 
Note that Ankit Agrawal (Proprietor of Yellowstone Equity) is a SEBI registered Research Analyst (Registration No.: INH000007216). Registration granted by SEBI and certification from NISM in no way guarantee performance of the intermediary or provide any assurance of returns to investors. Investment in securities market are subject to market risks. Read all the related documents carefully before investing.

Research Analyst Contact Details:
Address: A-412, Shilp Aaron, Sindhu Bhavan Road, Ahmedabad, Gujarat - 380059
Email: services@yellowstoneequity.com
Mobile: +91-7575817289

Compliance/Grievance Officer:
Name: Ankit Agrawal
Email: services@yellowstoneequity.com
Mobile: +91-7575817289
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<ul>
<li>We published on Polycab as our 2023 high conviction idea on Dec 25 2022. Since then, the stock has been up 75%+, exceeding our 65%+ upside FY26 target.</li>
<li>The steep rise was probably driven by strong earnings growth on the back of upbeat demand environment led by healthy domestic capex, rising exports and robust housing demand.</li>
<li>At the current valuation, Polycab is richly valued and we assign a "SELL" rating. Polycab's current market cap at INR 68700cr+ is well above our FY26 projection of INR 63500cr+.</li>
</ul>


We published on Polycab as our 2023 high conviction idea on Dec 25 2022. Since then, the stock has been up 75%+, exceeding our 65%+ upside FY26 target.
The steep rise was probably driven by strong earnings growth on the back of upbeat demand environment led by healthy domestic capex, rising exports and robust housing demand.
At the current valuation, Polycab is richly valued and we assign a "SELL" rating. Polycab's current market cap at INR 68700cr+ is well above our FY26 projection of INR 63500cr+.


2023 High Conviction Update | Polycab: Played Out As Anticipated, Now Time to Exit

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Axis Direct

Axis Direct

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Axis Direct is the flagship brand under Axis Securities Limited, a subsidiary of Axis Bank in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>Strong growth in C&amp;W while FMEG witnessed muted growth: Polycab India reported revenues of Rs 3,889 Cr, up 42% YoY, far exceeding our expectations of Rs 3,125 Cr.</li><li>Revenues growth was driven by healthy volume growth in the Cables &amp; Wires segment supported by strong traction in international business.</li><li>Cables &amp; Wires revenue for the quarter grew by 46% YoY to Rs 3,534 Cr, while the FMEG segment grew 3% QoQ during the quarter.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Strong growth in C&amp;W while FMEG witnessed muted growth: Polycab India reported revenues of Rs 3,889 Cr, up 42% YoY, far exceeding our expectations of Rs 3,125 Cr.Revenues growth was driven by healthy volume growth in the Cables &amp; Wires segment supported by strong traction in international business.Cables &amp; Wires revenue for the quarter grew by 46% YoY to Rs 3,534 Cr, while the FMEG segment grew 3% QoQ during the quarter.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Polycab India - Robust Growth Led by Strong Demand Environment

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/Events/Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/Events/Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>NSE Indices have started a market consultation on dropping stocks that are not a part of the Futures &amp; Options segment from the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-next-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36053:1" rel="noopener">Nifty Next 50 Index (NIFTYJR INDEX)</a>. </li>
<li>This will be done in two phases with a weight reduction for non-F&amp;O stocks in June and deletion from the index in September.</li>
<li>That will result in 11 inclusions to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-next-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36053:1" rel="noopener">Nifty Next 50 Index (NIFTYJR INDEX)</a> in September and bring in a lot of flow to the stocks.</li>
</ul>


NSE Indices have started a market consultation on dropping stocks that are not a part of the Futures &amp; Options segment from the Nifty Next 50 Index (NIFTYJR INDEX). 
This will be done in two phases with a weight reduction for non-F&amp;O stocks in June and deletion from the index in September.
That will result in 11 inclusions to the Nifty Next 50 Index (NIFTYJR INDEX) in September and bring in a lot of flow to the stocks.


NIFTY NEXT 50 Index Market Consultation: Non-F&O Stocks Could Be Dropped

<ul><li>Polycab India reported revenues of Rs 4,324 Cr up 8.9% YoY better than our expectations of Rs 4,184 Cr.</li><li>Growth in revenues during the quarter was driven by healthy volume growth in the Cables &amp; Wires segment supported by strong traction in international business.</li><li>Cables &amp; Wires revenue for the quarter grew by 12% YoY to Rs 4,078 Cr . FMEG segment de- grew 11% QoQ during the quarter.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Polycab India reported revenues of Rs 4,324 Cr up 8.9% YoY better than our expectations of Rs 4,184 Cr.Growth in revenues during the quarter was driven by healthy volume growth in the Cables &amp; Wires segment supported by strong traction in international business.Cables &amp; Wires revenue for the quarter grew by 12% YoY to Rs 4,078 Cr . FMEG segment de- grew 11% QoQ during the quarter.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Polycab India - Strong Performance by Cable & Wire Continues

India

Polycab India Limited produces and distributes electronic equipment. The Company offers cables, wires, fans, switches, lighting, junction boxes, circular lids, and pumps. Polycab India serves customers in India.   

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Polycab India (POLYCAB IN)

India Industrials | Quarterly Update - ABB India, Siemens, Polycab and Havells

In this analysis, we assess ABB IN, SIEM IN, POLYCAB IN, and HAVL IN. Most are on par with expectations, except Polycab, which exceeded them. Our...

Pranav Bhavsar

2023 High Conviction Update | Polycab: Played Out As Anticipated, Now Time to Exit

Polycab is up 75%+ in seven months, since our report on Dec 25 2022 as 2023 High Conviction Idea. At current valuation, it appears to be richly...

Ankit Agrawal, CFA

Polycab India - Robust Growth Led by Strong Demand Environment

Strong growth in C&W while FMEG witnessed muted growth: Polycab India reported revenues of Rs 3,889 Cr, up 42% YoY, far exceeding our expectations...

Axis Direct

NIFTY NEXT 50 Index Market Consultation: Non-F&O Stocks Could Be Dropped

A market consultation could lead to the deletion of non-F&O stocks from the NIFTY NEXT50 index in September. That means 11 new index members and...

Brian Freitas

Polycab India - Strong Performance by Cable & Wire Continues

Growth in revenues during the quarter was driven by healthy volume growth in the Cables & Wires segment supported by strong traction in...

Axis Direct

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