Private Markets, Angel and Secondary Investing, Sacra

Sacra

Private Markets, Angel and Secondary Investing

Bringing transparency to private markets so investors, founders, and employees can build on conviction. Sacra delivers deeply researched insights on the private companies shaping tomorrow's markets. By surfacing the data, context, and operator perspective that are missing from private markets today, we help secondary buyers and sellers price equity accurately and unlock liquidity for the people building these businesses.

Private Capital Markets

<ul><li>Polymarket acquired a CFTC-licensed exchange and launched in America in May 2026, with its trading mix shifting from politics to sports.</li><li>Sacra estimates Polymarket hit $375M in annualized revenue in May 2026, now in talks to raise at a $15B valuation for a 40x multiple.</li><li>Polymarket's monetization is still early, with its blended effective rate (~0.3% of volume) running roughly at one-quarter of Kalshi's (~1.2%) on $8.9B in May 2026 trading volume.</li></ul>

Polymarket acquired a CFTC-licensed exchange and launched in America in May 2026, with its trading mix shifting from politics to sports.Sacra estimates Polymarket hit $375M in annualized revenue in May 2026, now in talks to raise at a $15B valuation for a 40x multiple.Polymarket's monetization is still early, with its blended effective rate (~0.3% of volume) running roughly at one-quarter of Kalshi's (~1.2%) on $8.9B in May 2026 trading volume.

<ul><li>Sacra estimates that Polymarket hit $1B in annualized revenue in June 2026, up from $0 in revenue in 2025.</li><li>In October 2025, ICE announced a strategic investment in Polymarket structured as $1.0B of Series D Preferred stock.</li><li>Trading volume expanded from $73M in 2023 to approximately $9B in 2024, continuing its scaling trajectory through 2025 and into 2026.</li></ul>

Sacra estimates that Polymarket hit $1B in annualized revenue in June 2026, up from $0 in revenue in 2025.In October 2025, ICE announced a strategic investment in Polymarket structured as $1.0B of Series D Preferred stock.Trading volume expanded from $73M in 2023 to approximately $9B in 2024, continuing its scaling trajectory through 2025 and into 2026.

Institutional-Grade Analysis, In-depth Insights, Animoca Brands Research

Animoca Brands Research

Institutional-Grade Analysis, In-depth Insights

Animoca Brands Corporation Ltd. is a Hong Kong-based game software company and venture capital company

Crypto

<ul><li aria-level="1">Prediction markets utilize financial consequences to filter noise, transforming dispersed information into high-fidelity probabilistic signals. Unlike polls, they measure capital-weighted conviction, offering a "truth currency" that consistently outperforms individual experts and traditional surveys.</li><li aria-level="1">The market has split into two extremes: a numerically dominant retail cohort (70% of users) that contributes only 2% of volume and remains largely unprofitable , and a small group of institutional liquidity providers (e.g., Jump Trading, SIG) and algorithmic arbitrageurs who capture the vast majority of economic value.</li><li aria-level="1">Driven by landmark U.S. regulatory breakthroughs and a $2 billion strategic investment from Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), prediction markets are moving from niche betting sites to core financial infrastructure. Real-time probabilities are now distributed via Bloomberg and Google Finance, signaling their role as a macro analysis tool.</li></ul>

Prediction markets utilize financial consequences to filter noise, transforming dispersed information into high-fidelity probabilistic signals. Unlike polls, they measure capital-weighted conviction, offering a "truth currency" that consistently outperforms individual experts and traditional surveys.The market has split into two extremes: a numerically dominant retail cohort (70% of users) that contributes only 2% of volume and remains largely unprofitable , and a small group of institutional liquidity providers (e.g., Jump Trading, SIG) and algorithmic arbitrageurs who capture the vast majority of economic value.Driven by landmark U.S. regulatory breakthroughs and a $2 billion strategic investment from Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), prediction markets are moving from niche betting sites to core financial infrastructure. Real-time probabilities are now distributed via Bloomberg and Google Finance, signaling their role as a macro analysis tool.

Prediction Market Overview: Turning Uncertainty into Alpha

<ul><li>Prediction markets have emerged as a new way for millions of Americans to bet on sports &amp; elections, exploiting a legal loophole where CFTC-approved “event contracts” sidestep state gambling laws entirely, allowing Kalshi to launch across all 50 states in 2021 (even those where online sports gambling is illegal).</li><li>The 2024 U.S. presidential election was the breakout moment for prediction markets, with crypto-native prediction market Polymarket&#39;s trading volume exploding from $73M in 2023 to $9B in 2024 (over $3.3B wagered on the Trump vs. Harris race alone) but sports has become the engine sustaining growth post-election with Kalshi&#39;s monthly volume hitting $4B+ in October and November with 90% of that from sports.</li><li>While their consumer apps have driven public awareness of prediction markets, Kalshi &amp; Polymarket are now jockeying to be the infrastructure &amp; liquidity layer of events contracts as sportsbooks (DraftKings, FanDuel), crypto exchanges (Coinbase, Kraken), social media platforms (X) and investing apps (Robinhood) all partner with them to offer prediction markets on their own platforms.</li></ul>

Prediction markets have emerged as a new way for millions of Americans to bet on sports &amp; elections, exploiting a legal loophole where CFTC-approved “event contracts” sidestep state gambling laws entirely, allowing Kalshi to launch across all 50 states in 2021 (even those where online sports gambling is illegal).The 2024 U.S. presidential election was the breakout moment for prediction markets, with crypto-native prediction market Polymarket&#39;s trading volume exploding from $73M in 2023 to $9B in 2024 (over $3.3B wagered on the Trump vs. Harris race alone) but sports has become the engine sustaining growth post-election with Kalshi&#39;s monthly volume hitting $4B+ in October and November with 90% of that from sports.While their consumer apps have driven public awareness of prediction markets, Kalshi &amp; Polymarket are now jockeying to be the infrastructure &amp; liquidity layer of events contracts as sportsbooks (DraftKings, FanDuel), crypto exchanges (Coinbase, Kraken), social media platforms (X) and investing apps (Robinhood) all partner with them to offer prediction markets on their own platforms.

<ul><li>After the launch of Ethereum in 2015, prediction markets became one of the most popular use cases for dApps (decentralized apps), with early projects like Augur (founded 2014) and Gnosis (2015) built for developers &amp; requiring users to run their own Ethereum nodes—creating the opportunity for Polymarket (2020) to launch with consumer grade UX, curated markets, and instant order fills via USDC.</li><li>Trading volume on Polymarket exploded from $73M in 2023 to ~$9B in 2024, driven by the U.S. presidential election (over $3.3B wagered on Trump vs. Harris alone) and its subsequent expansion into sports betting, with monthly volume hitting $3.02B in October 2025, up from ~$1B in August.</li><li>To maximize liquidity, Polymarket has opted for zero trading fees, but that will change with the company’s plan to relaunch in the U.S. with sports (aiming November 2025) after acquiring a CFTC-licensed exchange—though at 0.01%, Polymarket will be priced 100x lower than Kalshi which monetizes at a ~1% effective take rate for a Sacra-estimated $24M in 2024 revenue, up 1,221% YoY.</li></ul>

After the launch of Ethereum in 2015, prediction markets became one of the most popular use cases for dApps (decentralized apps), with early projects like Augur (founded 2014) and Gnosis (2015) built for developers &amp; requiring users to run their own Ethereum nodes—creating the opportunity for Polymarket (2020) to launch with consumer grade UX, curated markets, and instant order fills via USDC.Trading volume on Polymarket exploded from $73M in 2023 to ~$9B in 2024, driven by the U.S. presidential election (over $3.3B wagered on Trump vs. Harris alone) and its subsequent expansion into sports betting, with monthly volume hitting $3.02B in October 2025, up from ~$1B in August.To maximize liquidity, Polymarket has opted for zero trading fees, but that will change with the company’s plan to relaunch in the U.S. with sports (aiming November 2025) after acquiring a CFTC-licensed exchange—though at 0.01%, Polymarket will be priced 100x lower than Kalshi which monetizes at a ~1% effective take rate for a Sacra-estimated $24M in 2024 revenue, up 1,221% YoY.

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Polymarket (POLYMARKET CURNCY)

Polymarket At $375M/year

TL;DR: After becoming the largest prediction market globally while operating outside the US, Polymarket acquired a CFTC-licensed exchange and...

Sacra

Primer: Polymarket - 28 Jun 2026

Decentralized prediction market platform for users to bet on real-world events using cryptocurrency

Sacra

Prediction Market Overview: Turning Uncertainty into Alpha

Prediction markets utilize financial consequences to filter noise, transforming dispersed information into high-fidelity probabilistic signals.

Animoca Brands Research

Gen Z Degen Economy

TL;DR: As regulatory barriers fall and federal CFTC oversight preempts state gambling laws, prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket are...

Sacra

Polymarket Vs Kalshi

TL;DR: Crypto-native prediction market Polymarket grew to ~$9B in trading volume in 2024, dominating bets on politics while going neck-and-neck...

Sacra

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