Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There are 17 changes a side for the NIFTY Midcap 150 Index at the March rebalance. There are many stocks with flows from passive trackers of other indices.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 9.2% resulting in a round-trip trade of INR 15.9bn (US$184m). With over US$40bn tracking the index actively, the impact on the stocks will be much larger.</li>
<li>There are many stocks with opposing flows from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nse-nifty-next-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36053:1" rel="noopener">NSE Nifty Next 50 Index</a> trackers. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ola-electric-mobility-pvt-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40618:1" rel="noopener">Ola Electric (OLAELEC IN)</a> will have inflows from multiple index trackers over the next month.</li>
</ul>


There are 17 changes a side for the NIFTY Midcap 150 Index at the March rebalance. There are many stocks with flows from passive trackers of other indices.
Estimated one-way turnover is 9.2% resulting in a round-trip trade of INR 15.9bn (US$184m). With over US$40bn tracking the index actively, the impact on the stocks will be much larger.
There are many stocks with opposing flows from NSE Nifty Next 50 Index trackers. Ola Electric (OLAELEC IN) will have inflows from multiple index trackers over the next month.


NIFTY MIDCAP150 Index Rebalance: 17 Changes a Side; Lots of Overlap with Other Index Flow

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The Index Maintenance Sub-Committee of NSE Indices will meet on 21 February to conduct a semi-annual and quarterly review of stocks in various Nifty equity indices.</li>
<li>The changes will be announced after market close tomorrow and will be implemented at the close of trading on 28 March.</li>
<li>Based on the forecast index changes and capping changes for a few indices, the round-trip trade will be over US$2.5bn and many stocks will have over 0.5x ADV to trade.</li>
</ul>


The Index Maintenance Sub-Committee of NSE Indices will meet on 21 February to conduct a semi-annual and quarterly review of stocks in various Nifty equity indices.
The changes will be announced after market close tomorrow and will be implemented at the close of trading on 28 March.
Based on the forecast index changes and capping changes for a few indices, the round-trip trade will be over US$2.5bn and many stocks will have over 0.5x ADV to trade.


India: March Rebalance Announcement Tomorrow; Round-Trip Trade Over US$2.5bn

<ul>
<li>With the review period now complete, there could be 15 changes for the NIFTY Midcap 150 Index at the March rebalance.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 8.3% resulting in a one-way trade of INR 7.65bn (US$88m). With over US$40bn tracking the index actively, the impact on the stocks will be much larger.</li>
<li>The outright adds have outperformed the forecast deletes over the last 6 months, but there has been underperformance this calendar year.</li>
</ul>


With the review period now complete, there could be 15 changes for the NIFTY Midcap 150 Index at the March rebalance.
Estimated one-way turnover is 8.3% resulting in a one-way trade of INR 7.65bn (US$88m). With over US$40bn tracking the index actively, the impact on the stocks will be much larger.
The outright adds have outperformed the forecast deletes over the last 6 months, but there has been underperformance this calendar year.


NIFTY MIDCAP150 Index Rebalance Preview: 15 Potential Changes in March

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited

Motilal Oswal

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited

Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited is an Indian diversified financial services firm offering a range of financial products and services. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Poonawalla Fincorp’s (PFL) 3QFY25 PAT declined ~93% YoY to ~INR187m (vs. MOFSLe: INR1.52b). NII grew ~25% YoY to ~INR6.1b (in line), while PPoP grew ~7% YoY to ~INR3.7b (in line).</li><li>Other income declined ~2% YoY and ~32% QoQ to ~INR581m, due to no assignment income or write-backs in 3Q.</li><li>Opex in 3QFY25 rose 50% YoY to INR3b, with C/I ratio declining to ~45% (PQ: 57%).</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Poonawalla Fincorp’s (PFL) 3QFY25 PAT declined ~93% YoY to ~INR187m (vs. MOFSLe: INR1.52b). NII grew ~25% YoY to ~INR6.1b (in line), while PPoP grew ~7% YoY to ~INR3.7b (in line).Other income declined ~2% YoY and ~32% QoQ to ~INR581m, due to no assignment income or write-backs in 3Q.Opex in 3QFY25 rose 50% YoY to INR3b, with C/I ratio declining to ~45% (PQ: 57%).Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Poonawalla Fincorp - Legacy Book Stress Keeps Credit Costs Elevated

CG Power and Industrial Solutions / Event-Driven

CG Power and Industrial Solutions (CGPOWER IN)

<ul>
<li>We see 7 stocks moving from MidCap to LargeCap, 11 stocks moving from LargeCap to MidCap, 4 stocks from SmallCap to MidCap, and 11 stocks from MidCap to SmallCap.</li>
<li>From the new listings, 4 stocks are expected to be added to Large Cap, 3 stocks to Mid Cap, and multiple stocks to Small Cap.</li>
<li>There are multiple stocks among the AMFI changes that will be changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nse-nifty-next-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36053:1" rel="noopener">NSE Nifty Next 50 Index (NIFTYJR INDEX)</a> and/or Nifty Midcap 150 Index in March.</li>
</ul>


We see 7 stocks moving from MidCap to LargeCap, 11 stocks moving from LargeCap to MidCap, 4 stocks from SmallCap to MidCap, and 11 stocks from MidCap to SmallCap.
From the new listings, 4 stocks are expected to be added to Large Cap, 3 stocks to Mid Cap, and multiple stocks to Small Cap.
There are multiple stocks among the AMFI changes that will be changes for the NSE Nifty Next 50 Index (NIFTYJR INDEX) and/or Nifty Midcap 150 Index in March.


AMFI Stock Reclassification Preview (Dec 2024): Recent Large IPOs Lead to Big Downward Shift

India

Poonawalla Fincorp Limited is a non-banking finance company that provides consumer and MSME financing services in India. The company offers a diversified product suite including personal, business, and asset-backed loans, along with supply chain financing and insurance products. It was incorporated in 1978 and is headquartered in Pune, India.

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Poonawalla Fincorp (POONAWAL IN)

NIFTY MIDCAP150 Index Rebalance: 17 Changes a Side; Lots of Overlap with Other Index Flow

There are 17 changes for the index in March. Estimated one-way turnover is 9.2% resulting in a one-way trade of INR15.9bn. There are many stocks...

Brian Freitas

India: March Rebalance Announcement Tomorrow; Round-Trip Trade Over US$2.5bn

The March changes for the Nifty indices will be announced tomorrow. There are changes forecast for most indices with large AUM. Round-trip trade...

Brian Freitas

NIFTY MIDCAP150 Index Rebalance Preview: 15 Potential Changes in March

There could be 15 changes in March. Estimated one-way turnover is 8.3% and one-way trade is INR 7.65bn. With over US$40bn tracking the index...

Brian Freitas

Poonawalla Fincorp - Legacy Book Stress Keeps Credit Costs Elevated

Poonawalla Fincorp’s (PFL) 3QFY25 PAT declined ~93% YoY to ~INR187m (vs. MOFSLe: INR1.52b). NII grew ~25% YoY to ~INR6.1b (in line), while PPoP...

Motilal Oswal

AMFI Stock Reclassification Preview (Dec 2024): Recent Large IPOs Lead to Big Downward Shift

There could be 33 migrations in January, 4 new listings in LargeCap, 3 in MidCap and multiple in SmallCap. Some of the AMFI changes will have...

Brian Freitas

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