European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos and DLC mainly tightened during June. Coverage of CF Alba is discontinued following delisting. Discounts (30 June): GBL, 36% (vs. 37.9% on 30 May); </li>
<li>Heineken Holding, 14% (vs. 12.5%); Industrivärden C, 10% (vs. 9.6%); Investor B, 12.1% (vs. 9.6%); Porsche Automobile Holding, 28% (vs. 29.5%); Rio DLC 20.9% (vs. 22.2%); Vivendi 44.9% (vs. 47.1%). </li>
<li>What seems interesting (unchanged views): Heineken Holding, vs. Heineken, Porsche SE vs. listed assets and Rio DLC (long RIO LN/short RIO AU).</li>
</ul>


Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos and DLC mainly tightened during June. Coverage of CF Alba is discontinued following delisting. Discounts (30 June): GBL, 36% (vs. 37.9% on 30 May); 
Heineken Holding, 14% (vs. 12.5%); Industrivärden C, 10% (vs. 9.6%); Investor B, 12.1% (vs. 9.6%); Porsche Automobile Holding, 28% (vs. 29.5%); Rio DLC 20.9% (vs. 22.2%); Vivendi 44.9% (vs. 47.1%). 
What seems interesting (unchanged views): Heineken Holding, vs. Heineken, Porsche SE vs. listed assets and Rio DLC (long RIO LN/short RIO AU).


Selected European HoldCos and DLC: June 2025 Report

<ul>
<li>Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos mainly widened during May. Coverage of CF Alba is discontinued following delisting. </li>
<li>Discounts (30 May): GBL, 37.9% (vs 35.3%, 2 May); Heineken Holding, 12.5% (vs. 12.3%); Industrivärden C, 9.6% (vs. 9.1%); Investor B, 9.6% (vs. 5.8%); Porsche Automobile Holding, 29.5% (vs. 29.2%); </li>
<li>Rio DLC 22.2% (vs. 25.8%); Vivendi 45% (vs. 46%).  What seems interesting: Heineken Holding, vs. Heineken, Porsche SE vs. listed assets and Rio DLC (long RIO LN/short RIO AU).</li>
</ul>


Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos mainly widened during May. Coverage of CF Alba is discontinued following delisting. 
Discounts (30 May): GBL, 37.9% (vs 35.3%, 2 May); Heineken Holding, 12.5% (vs. 12.3%); Industrivärden C, 9.6% (vs. 9.1%); Investor B, 9.6% (vs. 5.8%); Porsche Automobile Holding, 29.5% (vs. 29.2%); 
Rio DLC 22.2% (vs. 25.8%); Vivendi 45% (vs. 46%).  What seems interesting: Heineken Holding, vs. Heineken, Porsche SE vs. listed assets and Rio DLC (long RIO LN/short RIO AU).


Selected European HoldCos and DLC: May 2025 Report

Porsche Automobil Holding  / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
Dividend cut reflects strategic shift: Porsche SE cut its 2024 dividend due to reduced Volkswagen inflows and focus on deleveraging, limiting its near-term appeal as a dividend pass-through holding structure.</li>
<li>
Diversification stillsSuperficial: despite claims of expanding into defense and infrastructure, Porsche SE’s portfolio remains 99% tied to Volkswagen and Porsche AG, making its diversification strategy more rhetorical than real.</li>
<li>
Discount to NAV remains high: Porsche SE trades at a 33.4% NAV discount, reflecting legal overhangs and structural inefficiencies. Favorable rulings could trigger re-rating if legal risks prove overstated.</li>
</ul>



Dividend cut reflects strategic shift: Porsche SE cut its 2024 dividend due to reduced Volkswagen inflows and focus on deleveraging, limiting its near-term appeal as a dividend pass-through holding structure.

Diversification stillsSuperficial: despite claims of expanding into defense and infrastructure, Porsche SE’s portfolio remains 99% tied to Volkswagen and Porsche AG, making its diversification strategy more rhetorical than real.

Discount to NAV remains high: Porsche SE trades at a 33.4% NAV discount, reflecting legal overhangs and structural inefficiencies. Favorable rulings could trigger re-rating if legal risks prove overstated.


Porsche Automobile Holding: Q1 2025, Discount to NAV

<ul>
<li>Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos mainly widened during April. CF Alba was delisted following conclusion of the takeover acceptance period. Discounts: GBL, 35.3% as of 2 May (vs. 37.6%);</li>
<li>Heineken Holding, 12.3% (vs. 11.2%); Industrivärden C, 9.1% (vs. 2.9%); Investor B, 5.8% (vs. 4.2%); Porsche Automobile Holding, 29.2% (vs. 31.9%); Rio DLC 25.8% (vs. 21.7%); Vivendi 40% (vs. 40.1%). </li>
<li>What seems interesting (unchanged views): Porsche SE vs. listed assets and the Rio DLC (long RIO LN/short RIO AU).</li>
</ul>


Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos mainly widened during April. CF Alba was delisted following conclusion of the takeover acceptance period. Discounts: GBL, 35.3% as of 2 May (vs. 37.6%);
Heineken Holding, 12.3% (vs. 11.2%); Industrivärden C, 9.1% (vs. 2.9%); Investor B, 5.8% (vs. 4.2%); Porsche Automobile Holding, 29.2% (vs. 31.9%); Rio DLC 25.8% (vs. 21.7%); Vivendi 40% (vs. 40.1%). 
What seems interesting (unchanged views): Porsche SE vs. listed assets and the Rio DLC (long RIO LN/short RIO AU).


Selected European HoldCos and DLC: April 2025 Report

<ul>
<li>Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos didn't show a clear trend during March. Discounts: C.F.Alba, 14.9% as of 31 March (vs 14.1% as of 28 February); GBL, 37.6% (vs. 38.7%);</li>
<li>Heineken Holding, 11.2% (vs. 13%); Industrivärden C, 2.9% (vs. 5.1%); Investor B, 4.2% (vs. 2.3%); Porsche Automobile Holding, 31.9% (vs. 38.1%); Rio DLC 21.7% (vs. 17%). Vivendi 40.1% (vs. 38.7%). </li>
<li>What seems interesting (unchanged views): Porsche SE vs. listed assets and the Rio DLC (long RIO LN/short RIO AU).</li>
</ul>


Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos didn't show a clear trend during March. Discounts: C.F.Alba, 14.9% as of 31 March (vs 14.1% as of 28 February); GBL, 37.6% (vs. 38.7%);
Heineken Holding, 11.2% (vs. 13%); Industrivärden C, 2.9% (vs. 5.1%); Investor B, 4.2% (vs. 2.3%); Porsche Automobile Holding, 31.9% (vs. 38.1%); Rio DLC 21.7% (vs. 17%). Vivendi 40.1% (vs. 38.7%). 
What seems interesting (unchanged views): Porsche SE vs. listed assets and the Rio DLC (long RIO LN/short RIO AU).


Selected European HoldCos and DLC: March 2025 Report, Adding Vivendi

Germany

Porsche Automobil Holding SE is a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, offers development, production, and sale of automobiles along with financial services. Porsche operates worldwide.

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Porsche Automobil Holding (PAH3 GR)

Selected European HoldCos and DLC: June 2025 Report

Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos and DLC mainly tightened during June. What seems interesting (unchanged views): Heineken Holding, Porsche SE...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Selected European HoldCos and DLC: May 2025 Report

Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos mainly widened during May. Coverage of CF Alba is discontinued following delisting. What seems interesting:...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Porsche Automobile Holding: Q1 2025, Discount to NAV

Porsche SE trades at a 33.4% NAV discount, reflecting legal and structural overhangs. Dividend cuts and weak diversification weigh, but court wins...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Selected European HoldCos and DLC: April 2025 Report

Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos mainly widened during April. CF Alba was delisted following conclusion of the takeover acceptance period.

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Selected European HoldCos and DLC: March 2025 Report, Adding Vivendi

March discounts to NAV of covered holdcos showed no clear trend. Interesting points include Porsche SE vs. listed assets and Rio DLC (long RIO LN...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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Selected European HoldCos and DLC: June 2025 Report

Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos and DLC mainly tightened during June. What seems interesting (unchanged views): Heineken Holding, Porsche SE...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Selected European HoldCos and DLC: May 2025 Report

Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos mainly widened during May. Coverage of CF Alba is discontinued following delisting. What seems interesting:...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Porsche Automobile Holding: Q1 2025, Discount to NAV

Porsche SE trades at a 33.4% NAV discount, reflecting legal and structural overhangs. Dividend cuts and weak diversification weigh, but court wins...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Selected European HoldCos and DLC: April 2025 Report

Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos mainly widened during April. CF Alba was delisted following conclusion of the takeover acceptance period.

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Selected European HoldCos and DLC: March 2025 Report, Adding Vivendi

​March discounts to NAV of covered holdcos showed no clear trend. Interesting points include Porsche SE vs. listed assets and Rio DLC (long RIO LN...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

March discounts to NAV of covered holdcos showed no clear trend. Interesting points include Porsche SE vs. listed assets and Rio DLC (long RIO LN...