New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>We upgrade Port of Tauranga (POT) to OUTPERFORM from NEUTRAL following its strong FY25 result and confidence in ongoing earnings momentum.</li><li>Underlying NPAT of NZ$126m (+23% against FY24) was above the top end of management’s guidance range, driven by pricing gains and robust cargo growth.</li><li>Strong earnings growth is likely to be sustained over the medium term as POT continues to close the gap on its 7% return on invested capital (ROIC) target—currently 5.3% on its operational assets.</li></ul>

We upgrade Port of Tauranga (POT) to OUTPERFORM from NEUTRAL following its strong FY25 result and confidence in ongoing earnings momentum.Underlying NPAT of NZ$126m (+23% against FY24) was above the top end of management’s guidance range, driven by pricing gains and robust cargo growth.Strong earnings growth is likely to be sustained over the medium term as POT continues to close the gap on its 7% return on invested capital (ROIC) target—currently 5.3% on its operational assets.

<ul><li>We expect Port of Tauranga (POT) to report a strong FY25 result on 29 August 2025, driven by a combination of container volume growth, pricing initiatives, and cost efficiencies, particularly for rail.</li><li>Our FY25 underlying NPAT forecast of NZ$124m (+22% on the prior year) is at the top end of management's NZ$115m–NZ$125m guidance range.</li><li>Pricing gains included a doubling of its container infrastructure levy and material increases in unit bulk charges.</li></ul>

We expect Port of Tauranga (POT) to report a strong FY25 result on 29 August 2025, driven by a combination of container volume growth, pricing initiatives, and cost efficiencies, particularly for rail.Our FY25 underlying NPAT forecast of NZ$124m (+22% on the prior year) is at the top end of management's NZ$115m–NZ$125m guidance range.Pricing gains included a doubling of its container infrastructure levy and material increases in unit bulk charges.

Port Of Tauranga FY25 Preview—Pricing Opportunity

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst, Investics Research

Sameer Taneja

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst

Investics Research

It is important to note that the information provided by Investics Research is based on publicly available data and own knowledge, which has been gathered and analyzed from a variety of sources. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the information provided, it is not guaranteed to be free from errors or omissions. All forecasts and estimates are based on information that has been obtained from public sources that are considered to be reliable. The sources include but are not limited to, company announcements, exchange filings, presentations, etc. Investics does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the forecasts, estimates, and/or other information.

Equity Bottom-up Research

<ul>
<li>
<a target="_blank">The initiation of A Container Port Terminal Product</a> introduced our rationale for covering companies that possess monopolistic/oligopolistic characteristics, as evidenced by their historic pricing/volume growth.</li>
<li>We initiated coverage on four such companies and have one in the pipeline on our screener, which we will initiate soon. </li>
<li>We like <a target="_blank">ICTSI (ICT PM)</a> for its global growth and <a target="_blank">Asian Terminals (ATI PM)</a> for its valuation, as well as pricing power, margins, ROCE, and other metrics. </li>
</ul>



The initiation of A Container Port Terminal Product introduced our rationale for covering companies that possess monopolistic/oligopolistic characteristics, as evidenced by their historic pricing/volume growth.
We initiated coverage on four such companies and have one in the pipeline on our screener, which we will initiate soon. 
We like ICTSI (ICT PM) for its global growth and Asian Terminals (ATI PM) for its valuation, as well as pricing power, margins, ROCE, and other metrics. 


Container Port Terminal Screener December 2025: Top Picks For FY26

<ul><li>Third-party data covering over 75% of Port of Tauranga’s (POT) cargo volume suggests POT enjoyed robust 4Q25 cargo volumes and will likely report FY25 volumes at or marginally ahead of guidance.</li><li>While the volume backdrop is supportive to near-term earnings, pricing will be the major driver of a strong FY25 result (due on 29 August 2025).</li><li>Moreover, we continue to see pricing as the key lever for POT to lift return on capital above current sub-WACC levels.</li></ul>

Third-party data covering over 75% of Port of Tauranga’s (POT) cargo volume suggests POT enjoyed robust 4Q25 cargo volumes and will likely report FY25 volumes at or marginally ahead of guidance.While the volume backdrop is supportive to near-term earnings, pricing will be the major driver of a strong FY25 result (due on 29 August 2025).Moreover, we continue to see pricing as the key lever for POT to lift return on capital above current sub-WACC levels.

<ul>
<li>We follow our initiations on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/westports-holdings-bhd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3954:1" rel="noopener">Westports Holdings (WPRTS MK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/asian-terminals-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22959:1" rel="noopener">Asian Terminals (ATI PM)</a> with the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/port-of-tauranga-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3739:1" rel="noopener">Port of Tauranga (POT NZ)</a> .</li>
<li>The company has shown strong pricing power, significantly raising its access charges at MetroPort starting September 1, 2025, to over NZ$130/transaction.</li>
<li>Despite this, based on our numbers, the stock trades at 26.6x/22x FY25/26 PE (ex-freehold land value). We believe this is expensive and would be neutral on the name. </li>
</ul>


We follow our initiations on Westports Holdings (WPRTS MK) and Asian Terminals (ATI PM) with the Port of Tauranga (POT NZ) .
The company has shown strong pricing power, significantly raising its access charges at MetroPort starting September 1, 2025, to over NZ$130/transaction.
Despite this, based on our numbers, the stock trades at 26.6x/22x FY25/26 PE (ex-freehold land value). We believe this is expensive and would be neutral on the name. 


Port of Tauranga (POT NZ): High Quality But Fairly Valued

New Zealand

Port of Tauranga Limited activities include the provision of wharf facilities, back up land for the storage and transit of import and export cargo, berthage, cranes, tug and pilotage services for exporters, importers and shipping companies and the leasing of land and buildings.  The Group also operates a container terminal and has bulk cargo marshalling operations.

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Port of Tauranga (POT NZ)

Port Of Tauranga - FY25—Pricing Play

We upgrade Port of Tauranga (POT) to OUTPERFORM from NEUTRAL following its strong FY25 result and confidence in ongoing earnings momentum.

Forsyth Barr

Port Of Tauranga FY25 Preview—Pricing Opportunity

We expect Port of Tauranga (POT) to report a strong FY25 result on 29 August 2025, driven by a combination of container volume growth, pricing...

Forsyth Barr

Container Port Terminal Screener December 2025: Top Picks For FY26

Within container port terminal operators, we favor ICTSI (PM) and ATI (PM). With ROCE >20% and solid structural growth, we view both as high...

Sameer Taneja

Port Of Tauranga - Appetising FIGS

While the volume backdrop is supportive to near-term earnings, pricing will be the major driver of a strong FY25 result (due on 29 August 2025).

Forsyth Barr

Port of Tauranga (POT NZ): High Quality But Fairly Valued

We follow up on our initiatives with Asian Terminals and Westports at the Port of Tauranga. We aim to build comprehensive/detailed coverage of all...

Sameer Taneja

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