New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>We upgrade Port of Tauranga (POT) to OUTPERFORM from NEUTRAL following its strong FY25 result and confidence in ongoing earnings momentum.</li><li>Underlying NPAT of NZ$126m (+23% against FY24) was above the top end of management’s guidance range, driven by pricing gains and robust cargo growth.</li><li>Strong earnings growth is likely to be sustained over the medium term as POT continues to close the gap on its 7% return on invested capital (ROIC) target—currently 5.3% on its operational assets.</li></ul>

We upgrade Port of Tauranga (POT) to OUTPERFORM from NEUTRAL following its strong FY25 result and confidence in ongoing earnings momentum.Underlying NPAT of NZ$126m (+23% against FY24) was above the top end of management’s guidance range, driven by pricing gains and robust cargo growth.Strong earnings growth is likely to be sustained over the medium term as POT continues to close the gap on its 7% return on invested capital (ROIC) target—currently 5.3% on its operational assets.

<ul><li>We expect Port of Tauranga (POT) to report a strong FY25 result on 29 August 2025, driven by a combination of container volume growth, pricing initiatives, and cost efficiencies, particularly for rail.</li><li>Our FY25 underlying NPAT forecast of NZ$124m (+22% on the prior year) is at the top end of management's NZ$115m–NZ$125m guidance range.</li><li>Pricing gains included a doubling of its container infrastructure levy and material increases in unit bulk charges.</li></ul>

We expect Port of Tauranga (POT) to report a strong FY25 result on 29 August 2025, driven by a combination of container volume growth, pricing initiatives, and cost efficiencies, particularly for rail.Our FY25 underlying NPAT forecast of NZ$124m (+22% on the prior year) is at the top end of management's NZ$115m–NZ$125m guidance range.Pricing gains included a doubling of its container infrastructure levy and material increases in unit bulk charges.

Port Of Tauranga FY25 Preview—Pricing Opportunity

<ul><li>Third-party data covering over 75% of Port of Tauranga’s (POT) cargo volume suggests POT enjoyed robust 4Q25 cargo volumes and will likely report FY25 volumes at or marginally ahead of guidance.</li><li>While the volume backdrop is supportive to near-term earnings, pricing will be the major driver of a strong FY25 result (due on 29 August 2025).</li><li>Moreover, we continue to see pricing as the key lever for POT to lift return on capital above current sub-WACC levels.</li></ul>

Third-party data covering over 75% of Port of Tauranga’s (POT) cargo volume suggests POT enjoyed robust 4Q25 cargo volumes and will likely report FY25 volumes at or marginally ahead of guidance.While the volume backdrop is supportive to near-term earnings, pricing will be the major driver of a strong FY25 result (due on 29 August 2025).Moreover, we continue to see pricing as the key lever for POT to lift return on capital above current sub-WACC levels.

<ul><li>The favourable pricing backdrop for Port of Tauranga (POT) continues, with the company set to materially increase its access pricing at MetroPort from 1 September 2025.</li><li>POT currently trades at ~19x one-year forward EV/EBITDA, which appears consistent with its post-COVID history on a bond rate-adjusted basis.</li><li>Our revised NPAT forecast for FY26 implies +19% growth on FY25, driven almost entirely by pricing initiatives.</li></ul>

The favourable pricing backdrop for Port of Tauranga (POT) continues, with the company set to materially increase its access pricing at MetroPort from 1 September 2025.POT currently trades at ~19x one-year forward EV/EBITDA, which appears consistent with its post-COVID history on a bond rate-adjusted basis.Our revised NPAT forecast for FY26 implies +19% growth on FY25, driven almost entirely by pricing initiatives.

<ul><li>Port of Tauranga's new tariff schedule for FY26 indicates continued pricing momentum with expected unit-container revenue to increase by ~8% in FY26.</li><li>The infrastructure levy will double, and a modest bulk truck-access charge will be introduced, supporting robust near-term earnings growth.</li><li>The firm is projected to achieve +20% NPAT growth in FY25 and +15% in FY26, with ROIC expected to exceed WACC by FY28.</li></ul>

Port of Tauranga's new tariff schedule for FY26 indicates continued pricing momentum with expected unit-container revenue to increase by ~8% in FY26.The infrastructure levy will double, and a modest bulk truck-access charge will be introduced, supporting robust near-term earnings growth.The firm is projected to achieve +20% NPAT growth in FY25 and +15% in FY26, with ROIC expected to exceed WACC by FY28.

New Zealand

Port of Tauranga Limited activities include the provision of wharf facilities, back up land for the storage and transit of import and export cargo, berthage, cranes, tug and pilotage services for exporters, importers and shipping companies and the leasing of land and buildings.  The Group also operates a container terminal and has bulk cargo marshalling operations.

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Port of Tauranga (POT NZ)

Port Of Tauranga - FY25—Pricing Play

We upgrade Port of Tauranga (POT) to OUTPERFORM from NEUTRAL following its strong FY25 result and confidence in ongoing earnings momentum.

Forsyth Barr

Port Of Tauranga FY25 Preview—Pricing Opportunity

We expect Port of Tauranga (POT) to report a strong FY25 result on 29 August 2025, driven by a combination of container volume growth, pricing...

Forsyth Barr

Port Of Tauranga - Appetising FIGS

While the volume backdrop is supportive to near-term earnings, pricing will be the major driver of a strong FY25 result (due on 29 August 2025).

Forsyth Barr

Port of Tauranga The Price Is Right

he favourable pricing backdrop for Port of Tauranga (POT) continues, with the company set to materially increase its access pricing at MetroPort...

Forsyth Barr

Port of Tauranga - Port Pricing in Vogue

Port of Tauranga's new tariff schedule for FY26 indicates continued pricing momentum with expected unit-container revenue to increase by ~8% in FY26.

Forsyth Barr

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