New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Port of Tauranga's (POT) FY23 result highlighted deteriorating cago volumes and intense cost pressures but strong pricing gains.</li><li>These three themes are likely to remain through FY24; we still expect earnings growth but at a more subdued pace.</li><li>Softer cargo trends reflect weaker cyclical conditions, with container imports most impacted. </li></ul>

Port of Tauranga's (POT) FY23 result highlighted deteriorating cago volumes and intense cost pressures but strong pricing gains.These three themes are likely to remain through FY24; we still expect earnings growth but at a more subdued pace.Softer cargo trends reflect weaker cyclical conditions, with container imports most impacted. 

Port of Tauranga - FY23 — Pricing to the Rescue

<ul><li>Recent third party cargo volume data for Port of Tauranga (POT) is supportive to FY23 earnings growth but highlights some mix shifts over the past six months.</li><li>Log export growth has returned as a result of Cyclone Gabrielle forcing the harvesting of storm damaged trees in Central North Island forests.</li><li>In contrast, import container volumes have softened due to a more competitive Ports of Auckland (POAL) and a weakening consumer backdrop with likely de-stocking across the New Zealand supply chain.  </li></ul>

Recent third party cargo volume data for Port of Tauranga (POT) is supportive to FY23 earnings growth but highlights some mix shifts over the past six months.Log export growth has returned as a result of Cyclone Gabrielle forcing the harvesting of storm damaged trees in Central North Island forests.In contrast, import container volumes have softened due to a more competitive Ports of Auckland (POAL) and a weakening consumer backdrop with likely de-stocking across the New Zealand supply chain.  

Port of Tauranga - Logging Up Fewer Containers

<ul><li>Volumes mixed: During the 2010s POT was largely reliant on volume growth to drive profits</li><li>Material pricing gains: POT's pricing moves in early FY23 have continued the progress made in FY22</li><li>Terminal development: POT finally gets to make its case in the Environment Court for its berth expansion at Sulphur Point</li></ul>

Volumes mixed: During the 2010s POT was largely reliant on volume growth to drive profitsMaterial pricing gains: POT's pricing moves in early FY23 have continued the progress made in FY22Terminal development: POT finally gets to make its case in the Environment Court for its berth expansion at Sulphur Point

Port of Tauranga: 1H23 — Being Tugged Both Ways

<ul><li>Port of Tauranga (POT) has reported a strong 1H23 result with underlying NPAT of NZ$63m, up +11%, marginally above our expectations.</li><li>With modest volume headwinds (total trade -2.5% against the prior year), the result was driven by pricing gains</li><li>Management has lifted its full year NPAT guidance range from NZ$115m-NZ$120m to NZ$117m-NZ$124m (FB: NZ$122m).</li></ul>

Port of Tauranga (POT) has reported a strong 1H23 result with underlying NPAT of NZ$63m, up +11%, marginally above our expectations.With modest volume headwinds (total trade -2.5% against the prior year), the result was driven by pricing gainsManagement has lifted its full year NPAT guidance range from NZ$115m-NZ$120m to NZ$117m-NZ$124m (FB: NZ$122m).

Port of Tauranga (POT): 1H23 Result Initial Thoughts

<ul><li>Weaker first quarter volumes: Trade volumes are back to 1Q21 levels, with a higher container weighting given softness across several key bulk cargos</li><li>Earnings guidance: The mid-point of POT's new FY23 NPAT guidance implies ~+5% growth year on year</li><li>Pricing more than offsetting cost inflation</li></ul>

Weaker first quarter volumes: Trade volumes are back to 1Q21 levels, with a higher container weighting given softness across several key bulk cargosEarnings guidance: The mid-point of POT's new FY23 NPAT guidance implies ~+5% growth year on yearPricing more than offsetting cost inflation

Port of Tauranga: Profit Growth Congested by Lower Volumes

New Zealand

Port of Tauranga Limited activities include the provision of wharf facilities, back up land for the storage and transit of import and export cargo, berthage, cranes, tug and pilotage services for exporters, importers and shipping companies and the leasing of land and buildings.  The Group also operates a container terminal and has bulk cargo marshalling operations.

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Port of Tauranga (POT NZ)

Port of Tauranga - FY23 — Pricing to the Rescue

Port of Tauranga's (POT) FY23 result highlighted deteriorating cago volumes and intense cost pressures but strong pricing gains.

Forsyth Barr

Port of Tauranga - Logging Up Fewer Containers

Recent third party cargo volume data for Port of Tauranga (POT) is supportive to FY23 earnings growth but highlights some mix shifts over the past...

Forsyth Barr

Port of Tauranga: 1H23 — Being Tugged Both Ways

Port of Tauranga's (POT) strong first half result demonstrated the benefit of an active pricing strategy; Management's strategic tilt to pricing,...

Forsyth Barr

Port of Tauranga (POT): 1H23 Result Initial Thoughts

Port of Tauranga (POT) has reported a strong 1H23 result with underlying NPAT of NZ$63m, up +11%, marginally above our expectations; With modest...

Forsyth Barr

Port of Tauranga: Profit Growth Congested by Lower Volumes

Port of Tauranga (POT) has started FY23 slowly with trade volumes down -7% during its first quarter, though notably cycles a strong 1Q22; First...

Forsyth Barr

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