New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Napier Port (NPH) reported a robust 3Q25 result, with strong earnings growth driven by pricing gains, effective cost management, and operating leverage.</li><li>Management continues to expect FY25 EBITDA to be at the top of its full-year guidance range of NZ$59m–NZ$63m, implying a flat 4Q25 versus the prior year.</li><li>NPH continues to trade at a wide discount to POT on both a one year forward EV/EBITDA and PE basis, the quantum of which we believe is unjustified.</li></ul>

Napier Port (NPH) reported a robust 3Q25 result, with strong earnings growth driven by pricing gains, effective cost management, and operating leverage.Management continues to expect FY25 EBITDA to be at the top of its full-year guidance range of NZ$59m–NZ$63m, implying a flat 4Q25 versus the prior year.NPH continues to trade at a wide discount to POT on both a one year forward EV/EBITDA and PE basis, the quantum of which we believe is unjustified.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Uncertainty and volatility have resurfaced following the Liberation Day tariffs, impacting transport markets with varied responses.</li><li>Napier Port (NPH) and Port of Tauranga (POT) are preferred sector exposures due to improving port performance and pricing initiatives.</li><li>Air freight rates remain stable, while air passenger travel shows moderated declines, particularly for European inbound visitors.</li></ul>

Uncertainty and volatility have resurfaced following the Liberation Day tariffs, impacting transport markets with varied responses.Napier Port (NPH) and Port of Tauranga (POT) are preferred sector exposures due to improving port performance and pricing initiatives.Air freight rates remain stable, while air passenger travel shows moderated declines, particularly for European inbound visitors.

Transport Trends Not Feeling Much Liberation

<ul><li>Transport, like many sectors, is currently in a state of flux.</li><li>The anticipated cyclical recovery in demand from declining interest rates is being tested by President Trump led tariffs and unfolding trade wars.</li><li>Freight transport is inevitably getting caught up in the crossfire, while passenger transport, particularly air, could be harmed by falling consumer sentiment, especially in North America. </li></ul>

Transport, like many sectors, is currently in a state of flux.The anticipated cyclical recovery in demand from declining interest rates is being tested by President Trump led tariffs and unfolding trade wars.Freight transport is inevitably getting caught up in the crossfire, while passenger transport, particularly air, could be harmed by falling consumer sentiment, especially in North America. 

Transport Trends - Transport to Be Trumped by Tariffs?

<div id="m_-6258969701339594437iubdj"><ul><li>Return on capital across New Zealand's port companies has been under pressure for the past 10+ years; Port of Tauranga (POT) and Napier Port (NPH) included.</li><li>The sector as a whole is not earning anywhere near its cost of capital.</li><li>The returns diminution is exacerbated by asset revaluations for some ports, but even excluding revaluations, industry returns have declined on average. </li></ul></div>

Return on capital across New Zealand's port companies has been under pressure for the past 10+ years; Port of Tauranga (POT) and Napier Port (NPH) included.The sector as a whole is not earning anywhere near its cost of capital.The returns diminution is exacerbated by asset revaluations for some ports, but even excluding revaluations, industry returns have declined on average. 

Transport Sector  - Ports - High Tide Raises Most Ships

<ul><li>Listed transport infrastructure players are favoured over transport operators.</li><li>While the former are reliant on the latter for volumes (which are challenged across many modes currently), they have a distinct pricing power advantage.</li><li>Port pricing is supported by: (1) captive markets, and (2) a need to lift industry returns, which are currently below cost of capital across most listed and non-listed ports. </li></ul>

Listed transport infrastructure players are favoured over transport operators.While the former are reliant on the latter for volumes (which are challenged across many modes currently), they have a distinct pricing power advantage.Port pricing is supported by: (1) captive markets, and (2) a need to lift industry returns, which are currently below cost of capital across most listed and non-listed ports. 

Transport Trends -  The Haves and Have Nots

New Zealand

Port of Tauranga Limited activities include the provision of wharf facilities, back up land for the storage and transit of import and export cargo, berthage, cranes, tug and pilotage services for exporters, importers and shipping companies and the leasing of land and buildings.  The Group also operates a container terminal and has bulk cargo marshalling operations.

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Port of Tauranga (POT NZ)

Napier Port Running a Tight Ship

Napier Port (NPH) reported a robust 3Q25 result, with strong earnings growth driven by pricing gains, effective cost management, and operating...

Forsyth Barr

Transport Trends Not Feeling Much Liberation

Uncertainty and volatility have resurfaced following the Liberation Day tariffs, impacting transport markets with varied responses.

Forsyth Barr

Transport Trends - Transport to Be Trumped by Tariffs?

The anticipated cyclical recovery in demand from declining interest rates is being tested by President Trump led tariffs and unfolding trade wars.

Forsyth Barr

Transport Sector - Ports - High Tide Raises Most Ships

Return on capital across New Zealand's port companies has been under pressure for the past 10+ years; Port of Tauranga (POT) and Napier Port (NPH)...

Forsyth Barr

Transport Trends - The Haves and Have Nots

Port pricing is supported by: (1) captive markets, and (2) a need to lift industry returns, which are currently below cost of capital across most...

Forsyth Barr

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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