New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Transport, like many sectors, is currently in a state of flux.</li><li>The anticipated cyclical recovery in demand from declining interest rates is being tested by President Trump led tariffs and unfolding trade wars.</li><li>Freight transport is inevitably getting caught up in the crossfire, while passenger transport, particularly air, could be harmed by falling consumer sentiment, especially in North America. </li></ul>

Transport, like many sectors, is currently in a state of flux.The anticipated cyclical recovery in demand from declining interest rates is being tested by President Trump led tariffs and unfolding trade wars.Freight transport is inevitably getting caught up in the crossfire, while passenger transport, particularly air, could be harmed by falling consumer sentiment, especially in North America. 

Transport Trends - Transport to Be Trumped by Tariffs?

<div id="m_-6258969701339594437iubdj"><ul><li>Return on capital across New Zealand's port companies has been under pressure for the past 10+ years; Port of Tauranga (POT) and Napier Port (NPH) included.</li><li>The sector as a whole is not earning anywhere near its cost of capital.</li><li>The returns diminution is exacerbated by asset revaluations for some ports, but even excluding revaluations, industry returns have declined on average. </li></ul></div>

Return on capital across New Zealand's port companies has been under pressure for the past 10+ years; Port of Tauranga (POT) and Napier Port (NPH) included.The sector as a whole is not earning anywhere near its cost of capital.The returns diminution is exacerbated by asset revaluations for some ports, but even excluding revaluations, industry returns have declined on average. 

Transport Sector  - Ports - High Tide Raises Most Ships

<ul><li>Listed transport infrastructure players are favoured over transport operators.</li><li>While the former are reliant on the latter for volumes (which are challenged across many modes currently), they have a distinct pricing power advantage.</li><li>Port pricing is supported by: (1) captive markets, and (2) a need to lift industry returns, which are currently below cost of capital across most listed and non-listed ports. </li></ul>

Listed transport infrastructure players are favoured over transport operators.While the former are reliant on the latter for volumes (which are challenged across many modes currently), they have a distinct pricing power advantage.Port pricing is supported by: (1) captive markets, and (2) a need to lift industry returns, which are currently below cost of capital across most listed and non-listed ports. 

Transport Trends -  The Haves and Have Nots

<ul><li>Domestic transport, be it freight or passenger, is currently feeling pretty sorry for itself.</li><li>The depressed economic backdrop at home and stalled recovery of inbound air travel is weighing on the sector’s psyche and financial performance.</li><li>At this stage of the cycle, we tender to look for anything vaguely resembling a green shoot. </li></ul>

Domestic transport, be it freight or passenger, is currently feeling pretty sorry for itself.The depressed economic backdrop at home and stalled recovery of inbound air travel is weighing on the sector’s psyche and financial performance.At this stage of the cycle, we tender to look for anything vaguely resembling a green shoot. 

Transport Trends - Green Shoots Yet to Germinate

<ul><li>Mega trends have been dictating transport sector performance over the last few years.</li><li>The pandemic saw international travel halt overnight, congested supply chains, and ripples sent across the broader freight sector.</li><li>Just as these trends began to normalise, global economic conditions started to deteriorate, leading to supply chain destocking, and weaker passenger and freight end demand. </li></ul>

Mega trends have been dictating transport sector performance over the last few years.The pandemic saw international travel halt overnight, congested supply chains, and ripples sent across the broader freight sector.Just as these trends began to normalise, global economic conditions started to deteriorate, leading to supply chain destocking, and weaker passenger and freight end demand. 

New Zealand

Port of Tauranga Limited activities include the provision of wharf facilities, back up land for the storage and transit of import and export cargo, berthage, cranes, tug and pilotage services for exporters, importers and shipping companies and the leasing of land and buildings.  The Group also operates a container terminal and has bulk cargo marshalling operations.

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Port of Tauranga (POT NZ)

Transport Trends - Transport to Be Trumped by Tariffs?

The anticipated cyclical recovery in demand from declining interest rates is being tested by President Trump led tariffs and unfolding trade wars.

Forsyth Barr

Transport Sector - Ports - High Tide Raises Most Ships

Return on capital across New Zealand's port companies has been under pressure for the past 10+ years; Port of Tauranga (POT) and Napier Port (NPH)...

Forsyth Barr

Transport Trends - The Haves and Have Nots

Port pricing is supported by: (1) captive markets, and (2) a need to lift industry returns, which are currently below cost of capital across most...

Forsyth Barr

Transport Trends - Green Shoots Yet to Germinate

The depressed economic backdrop at home and stalled recovery of inbound air travel is weighing on the sector’s psyche and financial performance.

Forsyth Barr

Transport Trends - A Second Wave

Mega trends have been dictating transport sector performance over the last few years. The pandemic saw international travel halt overnight,...

Forsyth Barr

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