Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Douglas Research Advisory

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>On 19 March, POSCO Holdings (005490 KS) announced that it is selling its stake in Nippon Steel Corporation (5401 JP) worth nearly 468 billion won (US$320 million).</li>
<li>POSCO Holdings' sale of nearly US$320 million worth of Nippon Steel would be about 1.3% of its market cap. </li>
<li>POSCO Holdings' sale of its stake in Nippon Steel is a positive move for POSCO Holdings as the company is continuing to execute its strategy of selling off non-core assets.</li>
</ul>


On 19 March, POSCO Holdings (005490 KS) announced that it is selling its stake in Nippon Steel Corporation (5401 JP) worth nearly 468 billion won (US$320 million).
POSCO Holdings' sale of nearly US$320 million worth of Nippon Steel would be about 1.3% of its market cap. 
POSCO Holdings' sale of its stake in Nippon Steel is a positive move for POSCO Holdings as the company is continuing to execute its strategy of selling off non-core assets.


POSCO Holdings Is Selling Nippon Steel Shares Worth 468 Billion Won

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Clepsydra Capital

Investigate special situations, pairs, and index rebalancing trades in Korea.

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>POSCO Holdings and Samsung SDI stand out for shorting, as both were hit hard by the EV battery chasm. With June rebal looming, they’re likely getting the boot.</li>
<li>Samsung Biologics and Hanwha Aerospace could replace them, with a large float cap gap and strong price momentum, making it unlikely for the gap to flip by May.</li>
<li>As June rebalancing nears, volume could drop, increasing passive impact. With shorting back, passive flow intensity may rise, leading to significant price action.</li>
</ul>


POSCO Holdings and Samsung SDI stand out for shorting, as both were hit hard by the EV battery chasm. With June rebal looming, they’re likely getting the boot.
Samsung Biologics and Hanwha Aerospace could replace them, with a large float cap gap and strong price momentum, making it unlikely for the gap to flip by May.
As June rebalancing nears, volume could drop, increasing passive impact. With shorting back, passive flow intensity may rise, leading to significant price action.


Post-Ban Short Play Idea: TIGER Top 10 ETF Rebal in June

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Since short selling was banned in November 2023, short interest has plunged in Korea as shorts were covered. Markets have not done much over the last 16 months though. </li>
<li>Foreign investor holdings have dropped from 32.05% in July to 28.57%. The top 25 stocks bought by foreign investors outperformed the top 25 stocks sold by 128% in 16 months.</li>
<li>There will be trade opportunities across indices, pref/ords, index migrations and deletions, potential market upgrades and overvalued stocks being sold.</li>
</ul>


Since short selling was banned in November 2023, short interest has plunged in Korea as shorts were covered. Markets have not done much over the last 16 months though. 
Foreign investor holdings have dropped from 32.05% in July to 28.57%. The top 25 stocks bought by foreign investors outperformed the top 25 stocks sold by 128% in 16 months.
There will be trade opportunities across indices, pref/ords, index migrations and deletions, potential market upgrades and overvalued stocks being sold.


Korea: Short Selling Is Back in March; Trade Ideas

<ul>
<li>Despite feedback from ETF managers, KRX is moving forward with the simultaneous listing of 12 ETFs tracking the Value-Up Index on November 4th.</li>
<li>Government-Backed organizations are launching a 200 billion KRW Value-Up Fund for the Value-Up Index stocks, targeting an AUM boost to over 1 trillion KRW by year-end.</li>
<li>For new additions in the December rebalancing, the safest bets are POSCO Holdings, JB Financial Group, and HK inno.N.</li>
</ul>


Despite feedback from ETF managers, KRX is moving forward with the simultaneous listing of 12 ETFs tracking the Value-Up Index on November 4th.
Government-Backed organizations are launching a 200 billion KRW Value-Up Fund for the Value-Up Index stocks, targeting an AUM boost to over 1 trillion KRW by year-end.
For new additions in the December rebalancing, the safest bets are POSCO Holdings, JB Financial Group, and HK inno.N.


KRX's Final Call on Value-Up ETF Launch & December Rebalancing Preview

<ul>
<li>Key watchpoints: Will POSCO cancel the 3.4% treasury shares in Q4 and how will they replenish cash reserves after paying ₩1.5 trillion? Their moves could set trends.</li>
<li>POSCO might cancel these shares to boost their value-up index weight. This could drive up the stock price, giving them an opening to improve their cash position through equity financing.</li>
<li>Expect a short-term stock pivot with value-up index and ETFs driving inflows and price pops. After this, equity financing may signal stock peaks, with POSCO and others leading the trend.</li>
</ul>


Key watchpoints: Will POSCO cancel the 3.4% treasury shares in Q4 and how will they replenish cash reserves after paying ₩1.5 trillion? Their moves could set trends.
POSCO might cancel these shares to boost their value-up index weight. This could drive up the stock price, giving them an opening to improve their cash position through equity financing.
Expect a short-term stock pivot with value-up index and ETFs driving inflows and price pops. After this, equity financing may signal stock peaks, with POSCO and others leading the trend.


POSCO’s Early EB Payoff and Post-Value-Up Pivot Trading Angles

South Korea

POSCO Holdings Inc. manufactures and distributes steel products. The Company produces crude steel, hot rolled steel, cold rolled steel, stainless steel, steel plates, wire rods, galvanized steel, electrical steel, and other related products. POSCO Holdings markets its products worldwide.

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POSCO Holdings (005490 KS)

POSCO Holdings Is Selling Nippon Steel Shares Worth 468 Billion Won

On 19 March, POSCO Holdings (005490 KS) announced that it is selling its stake in Nippon Steel Corporation (5401 JP) worth nearly 468 billion won...

Douglas Kim

Post-Ban Short Play Idea: TIGER Top 10 ETF Rebal in June

This post presents a trading idea targeting the resumption of short selling that's largely off the radar: TIGER Top 10 ETF rebalancing in June.

Sanghyun Park

Korea: Short Selling Is Back in March; Trade Ideas

Since the Insight was published, the KOSPI200 is +0.95% while the KOSDAQ150 is -5.13%. Among the high forward PE stocks, Taesung (323280) is ...

Brian Freitas

KRX's Final Call on Value-Up ETF Launch & December Rebalancing Preview

KRX made the final call on the Korea Value-Up ETF launch date, which is November 4th. This post also offers a sneak peek at the December...

Sanghyun Park

POSCO’s Early EB Payoff and Post-Value-Up Pivot Trading Angles

This post updates POSCO Holdings' early repayment of ₩1.5T EBs and explores potential pivot trading opportunities following the value-up wave.

Sanghyun Park

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