Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There could be 2 changes for the FnGuide Top 10 Index and 1 change for the FnGuide Top 10 Equal Weight Index in June.</li>
<li>There will be capping inflows for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/samsung-electronics-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:191:1" rel="noopener">Samsung Electronics (005930 KS)</a>, capping outflows for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sk-hynix-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16955:1" rel="noopener">SK Hynix (000660 KS)</a> and funding outflows for the other index constituents.</li>
<li>A long adds/ short deletes trade has performed well historically for the FnGuide Top 10 Index with positive performance till implementation followed by reversion post implementation in most cases.</li>
</ul>


There could be 2 changes for the FnGuide Top 10 Index and 1 change for the FnGuide Top 10 Equal Weight Index in June.
There will be capping inflows for Samsung Electronics (005930 KS), capping outflows for SK Hynix (000660 KS) and funding outflows for the other index constituents.
A long adds/ short deletes trade has performed well historically for the FnGuide Top 10 Index with positive performance till implementation followed by reversion post implementation in most cases.


FnGuide Top 10 & Equal Weight Index Rebalance Preview: Outperformance Continues

Korea / Special Situations, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Situations

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Clepsydra Capital

Investigate special situations, pairs, and index rebalancing trades in Korea.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>The pricing’s standard—20% discount, 14.82% dilution. First-round price on June 12, final on July 16. The 20% discount could offer a bigger arb window than Samsung SDI or Hanwha Aero.</li>
<li>Posco Holdings confirmed full participation, taking half of the offering (500B+ KRW). With the ESOP in play, only 40% (400B KRW) remains, limiting potential trading upside despite the 20% discount.</li>
<li>Future M’s down 8% in after-hours, Holdings 3.5%. The sharp drop follows no deal leaks and sector concerns, suggesting more downside tomorrow, with the price gap key for day-night trading.</li>
</ul>


The pricing’s standard—20% discount, 14.82% dilution. First-round price on June 12, final on July 16. The 20% discount could offer a bigger arb window than Samsung SDI or Hanwha Aero.
Posco Holdings confirmed full participation, taking half of the offering (500B+ KRW). With the ESOP in play, only 40% (400B KRW) remains, limiting potential trading upside despite the 20% discount.
Future M’s down 8% in after-hours, Holdings 3.5%. The sharp drop follows no deal leaks and sector concerns, suggesting more downside tomorrow, with the price gap key for day-night trading.


Unpacking Posco Future M's Rights Offering Disclosed After Market Close Today

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Douglas Research Advisory

<ul>
<li>Posco Future M (003670 KS) announced today that it plans to complete a rights offering capital raise of 1.1 trillion won. </li>
<li>The capital raise will involve 11.483 million new shares, representing 14.8% of current outstanding shares. The expected rights offering price is 95,800 won, which is 15.8% lower than current price. </li>
<li>We have a Negative view on POSCO Future M and this capital raise, which is likely to have a negative impact on its shares due to the dilution risk.</li>
</ul>


Posco Future M (003670 KS) announced today that it plans to complete a rights offering capital raise of 1.1 trillion won. 
The capital raise will involve 11.483 million new shares, representing 14.8% of current outstanding shares. The expected rights offering price is 95,800 won, which is 15.8% lower than current price. 
We have a Negative view on POSCO Future M and this capital raise, which is likely to have a negative impact on its shares due to the dilution risk.


POSCO Future M: A Rights Offering Capital Raise of 1.1 Trillion Won

<ul>
<li>All three local CRAs are pushing hard — an equity raise isn’t optional, it’s the only shot at keeping the AA- rating intact. Street says it’s not if, it’s when.</li>
<li>Late April to mid-May looks like the key window. And start keeping tabs on the flow real tight.</li>
<li>Leak channels are still active. FSC’s pointed at IB sales and law firm staff. If we see outsized sell prints—especially from local hedge funds, that's our cue to act.</li>
</ul>


All three local CRAs are pushing hard — an equity raise isn’t optional, it’s the only shot at keeping the AA- rating intact. Street says it’s not if, it’s when.
Late April to mid-May looks like the key window. And start keeping tabs on the flow real tight.
Leak channels are still active. FSC’s pointed at IB sales and law firm staff. If we see outsized sell prints—especially from local hedge funds, that's our cue to act.


Timing the Announcement of POSCO Future M's Rights Issue

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mirae-asset-tiger-top-10-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36042:1" rel="noopener">Mirae Asset Tiger Top 10 ETF (292150 KS)</a> tracks the FnGuide Top 10 Index and has an AUM of around US$660m.</li>
<li>We currently forecast two potential changes at the next rebalance in June - both are high probability changes.</li>
<li>The trade has performed well historically with positive performance till implementation followed by reversion post implementation in most cases.</li>
</ul>


The Mirae Asset Tiger Top 10 ETF (292150 KS) tracks the FnGuide Top 10 Index and has an AUM of around US$660m.
We currently forecast two potential changes at the next rebalance in June - both are high probability changes.
The trade has performed well historically with positive performance till implementation followed by reversion post implementation in most cases.


FnGuide Top10 Index Rebalance Preview: Big Flow in Large Cap Stocks

South Korea

POSCO manufactures various types of steel products.  The Company produces hot rolled steel, cold rolled steel, stainless steel, and other forms of steel. The products are mainly used for automobile, construction, and shipbuilding industries.

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Posco ADR (PKX US)

FnGuide Top 10 & Equal Weight Index Rebalance Preview: Outperformance Continues

There could be 2 changes for the FnGuide Top 10 Index and 1 change for the FnGuide Top 10 Equal Weight Index in June. The forecast adds have...

Brian Freitas

Unpacking Posco Future M's Rights Offering Disclosed After Market Close Today

This post provides a detailed analysis of Posco Future M's rights offering, disclosed after market close today, examining the key terms, structure,...

Sanghyun Park

POSCO Future M: A Rights Offering Capital Raise of 1.1 Trillion Won

Posco Future M (003670 KS) announced today that it plans to complete a rights offering capital raise of 1.1 trillion won. We have a Negative view...

Douglas Kim

Timing the Announcement of POSCO Future M's Rights Issue

Posco Future M is launching a rights offering for 11.48M shares (~12% dilution). Tentative price is KRW 95,800 with a 20% discount; final pricing...

Sanghyun Park

FnGuide Top10 Index Rebalance Preview: Big Flow in Large Cap Stocks

There could be two changes for the FnGuide Top 10 Index in June. The forecast adds have outperformed the forecast deletes and history indicates...

Brian Freitas

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