Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

MSCI Emerging Markets Index / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>In our February 6, 2023 EM Strategy, we discussed that we were buyers of the MSCI EM (EEM-US) on a pullback to the 50-day MA. </li>
<li>The pullback went a bit deeper but managed to hold at our $37.50 line-in-the-sand which we discussed in our recent ETF Pathfinder reports (Mar. 6 and Mar. 20, 2023).</li>
<li>The EEM-US displays a bullish 2-month downtrend reversal- add exposure. Signs continue to point to a topping DXY, and a declining DXY has historically resulted in EM outperformance (vs. EAFE).</li>
</ul>


In our February 6, 2023 EM Strategy, we discussed that we were buyers of the MSCI EM (EEM-US) on a pullback to the 50-day MA. 
The pullback went a bit deeper but managed to hold at our $37.50 line-in-the-sand which we discussed in our recent ETF Pathfinder reports (Mar. 6 and Mar. 20, 2023).
The EEM-US displays a bullish 2-month downtrend reversal- add exposure. Signs continue to point to a topping DXY, and a declining DXY has historically resulted in EM outperformance (vs. EAFE).


MSCI EM $EEM 2-Month Downtrend Reversal at Support -- Add Exposure. Upgrading Taiwan to Overweight

Chief Executive Officer, Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Chief Executive Officer

Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Emmer Capital Partners is an Asia Pacific focused financial advisory firm engaging in strategic financial asset allocation advice, bespoke thematic research and advising early-stage companies and connecting them to investors. Emmer Capital provides macro-economic and multi-asset investment strategy inputs to institutions, family offices, private wealth managers, private equity, and corporate boards directly and through independent research platforms. Emmer Capital also advises a wide range of startup companies on fund raising and business strategy. Emmer Capital's active engagement with the print and electronic media reaches a broad spectrum of investors across the globe.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Since the last reshuffle (July 9), our Model Portfolio has appreciated 1.46%. MSCI Asia ex Japan index (MXASJ) has dropped 1.77%. AI infrastructure stocks primarily contributed to the portfolio drawdown.</li>
<li>Focus on AI "picks and shovels" providers, industrials, defense, industrial metals and banks remain. We also like Indian automobiles. We replace Hyundai Engineering and Construction with HD Hyundai Heavy Industries.</li>
<li>We are overweight on HK/China, Korea and India. We are underweight Taiwan but overweight Taiwan technology. We are Neutral ASEAN.</li>
</ul>


Since the last reshuffle (July 9), our Model Portfolio has appreciated 1.46%. MSCI Asia ex Japan index (MXASJ) has dropped 1.77%. AI infrastructure stocks primarily contributed to the portfolio drawdown.
Focus on AI "picks and shovels" providers, industrials, defense, industrial metals and banks remain. We also like Indian automobiles. We replace Hyundai Engineering and Construction with HD Hyundai Heavy Industries.
We are overweight on HK/China, Korea and India. We are underweight Taiwan but overweight Taiwan technology. We are Neutral ASEAN.


Asian Equities: Model Portfolio Outperformed; Minor Changes to the Industrials Sleeve

<ul>
<li>The MSCI EM vs.EAFE ratio (local currency) shows EM has outperformed relative to EAFE since the DXY peaked in November 2022, and also shows signs of reversing the 2-year downtrend.</li>
<li>As long as the DXY remains below $103.50-$106, we expect outperformance from EM to continue.</li>
<li>China/Hong Kong, Greece, South Africa, and Mexico stand out as attractive countries. Our top actionable Sectors include Communications, Consumer Discretionary, and Technology. We highlight 76 attractive EM stocks.</li>
</ul>


The MSCI EM vs.EAFE ratio (local currency) shows EM has outperformed relative to EAFE since the DXY peaked in November 2022, and also shows signs of reversing the 2-year downtrend.
As long as the DXY remains below $103.50-$106, we expect outperformance from EM to continue.
China/Hong Kong, Greece, South Africa, and Mexico stand out as attractive countries. Our top actionable Sectors include Communications, Consumer Discretionary, and Technology. We highlight 76 attractive EM stocks.


EM Outperformance to Continue (Vs. EAFE) -- Add on a Pullback; DXY Needs to Hold Below $106

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

<ul>
<li>KRX plans to launch KRX/S&amp;P ESG High Dividends Index on 4 October. This index will be composed of stocks in KOSPI 200 which have high dividend yields and ESG scores.</li>
<li>We provided a list of 20 stocks in KOSPI with high dividend yields with at least 500 billion won in market cap and those that have higher ESG scores.</li>
<li>Amid a major downturn in the global stock markets, there is a greater emphasis on the preservation of capital and increasing capital allocation to higher dividend yielding stocks.</li>
</ul>


KRX plans to launch KRX/S&amp;P ESG High Dividends Index on 4 October. This index will be composed of stocks in KOSPI 200 which have high dividend yields and ESG scores.
We provided a list of 20 stocks in KOSPI with high dividend yields with at least 500 billion won in market cap and those that have higher ESG scores.
Amid a major downturn in the global stock markets, there is a greater emphasis on the preservation of capital and increasing capital allocation to higher dividend yielding stocks.


Launch of KRX/S&P ESG High Dividends Index

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we discuss the recent buying and selling by the Korea National Pension Service (NPS) of Korean stocks.</li>
<li>Of the 176 Korean stocks in which NPS reported changes in ownerships in 2Q 2022, NPS increased its stakes in 115 companies and reduced stakes in 61 companies.</li>
<li>NPS mostly increased stakes in aerospace, defense, construction equipment, and energy sectors while reducing stakes in telecom and tourism related stocks.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we discuss the recent buying and selling by the Korea National Pension Service (NPS) of Korean stocks.
Of the 176 Korean stocks in which NPS reported changes in ownerships in 2Q 2022, NPS increased its stakes in 115 companies and reduced stakes in 61 companies.
NPS mostly increased stakes in aerospace, defense, construction equipment, and energy sectors while reducing stakes in telecom and tourism related stocks.


NPS Sells SK Bioscience, Naver, & LG Electronics and Buys Kakao Bank, Lotte Corp, & Samyang Foods

South Korea

POSCO manufactures various types of steel products.  The Company produces hot rolled steel, cold rolled steel, stainless steel, and other forms of steel. The products are mainly used for automobile, construction, and shipbuilding industries.

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Posco ADR (PKX US)

MSCI EM $EEM 2-Month Downtrend Reversal at Support -- Add Exposure. Upgrading Taiwan to Overweight

Signs continue to point to a topping $DXY, and a declining DXY has historically resulted in EM outperformance (vs. $EAFE). Many ideas in China/Hong...

Vermilion Research

Asian Equities: Model Portfolio Outperformed; Minor Changes to the Industrials Sleeve

Model Portfolio outperformed MXASJ. Drivers: base metals, industrials, select consumers. Focus stays on AI "picks & shovels", industrial, defense,...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

EM Outperformance to Continue (Vs. EAFE) -- Add on a Pullback; DXY Needs to Hold Below $106

EM vs. EAFE ratio (local currency) shows EM has outperformed relative to EAFE since the $DXY peaked in November 2022. If the DXY remains below...

Vermilion Research

Launch of KRX/S&P ESG High Dividends Index

KRX plans to launch KRX/S&P ESG High Dividends Index on 4 October. This index will be composed of stocks in KOSPI 200 which have high dividend...

Douglas Kim

NPS Sells SK Bioscience, Naver, & LG Electronics and Buys Kakao Bank, Lotte Corp, & Samyang Foods

NPS moves the Korean stock market more than any other investor. In this insight, we discuss the recent buying and selling by the Korea National...

Douglas Kim

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

MSCI EM $EEM 2-Month Downtrend Reversal at Support -- Add Exposure. Upgrading Taiwan to Overweight

Signs continue to point to a topping $DXY, and a declining DXY has historically resulted in EM outperformance (vs. $EAFE). Many ideas in China/Hong...

Vermilion Research

Asian Equities: Model Portfolio Outperformed; Minor Changes to the Industrials Sleeve

​Model Portfolio outperformed MXASJ. Drivers: base metals, industrials, select consumers. Focus stays on AI "picks & shovels", industrial, defense,...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

EM Outperformance to Continue (Vs. EAFE) -- Add on a Pullback; DXY Needs to Hold Below $106

EM vs. EAFE ratio (local currency) shows EM has outperformed relative to EAFE since the $DXY peaked in November 2022. If the DXY remains below...

Vermilion Research

Launch of KRX/S&P ESG High Dividends Index

KRX plans to launch KRX/S&P ESG High Dividends Index on 4 October. This index will be composed of stocks in KOSPI 200 which have high dividend...

Douglas Kim

NPS Sells SK Bioscience, Naver, & LG Electronics and Buys Kakao Bank, Lotte Corp, & Samyang Foods

NPS moves the Korean stock market more than any other investor. In this insight, we discuss the recent buying and selling by the Korea National...

Douglas Kim

Model Portfolio outperformed MXASJ. Drivers: base metals, industrials, select consumers. Focus stays on AI "picks & shovels", industrial, defense,...