Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Douglas Research Advisory

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>There are some major surprises (both inclusions and exclusions) in the Korea Value Up index. </li>
<li>In particular, the telecom sector (SK Telecom and KT) and large cap holding companies (Samsung C&amp;T and LG Corp) are surprising exclusions in the index.</li>
<li>There are many surprising inclusions in the Korea Value Up Index. We provide 30 companies are surprising inclusions in the Korea Value Up Index (19 KOSDAQ and 11 KOSPI listed).</li>
</ul>


There are some major surprises (both inclusions and exclusions) in the Korea Value Up index. 
In particular, the telecom sector (SK Telecom and KT) and large cap holding companies (Samsung C&amp;T and LG Corp) are surprising exclusions in the index.
There are many surprising inclusions in the Korea Value Up Index. We provide 30 companies are surprising inclusions in the Korea Value Up Index (19 KOSDAQ and 11 KOSPI listed).


Korea Value Up Index - Surprising Inclusions and Exclusions

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Following the short sell ban announced on the weekend, the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/korea-stock-exchange-kospi-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26021:1" rel="noopener">KOSPI 200</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kosdaq-150-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31077:1" rel="noopener">KOSDAQ 150</a> opened higher on Monday and rallied through the day.</li>
<li>A lot of the intraday gains on Monday have been given up over the next two trading days. Surprisingly, KRX data indicates that not a lot of shorts have covered.</li>
<li>Foreigners have been net cash buyers since Monday (could indicate covering of offshore borrow) while retail were big sellers on Monday.</li>
</ul>


Following the short sell ban announced on the weekend, the KOSPI 200 and KOSDAQ 150 opened higher on Monday and rallied through the day.
A lot of the intraday gains on Monday have been given up over the next two trading days. Surprisingly, KRX data indicates that not a lot of shorts have covered.
Foreigners have been net cash buyers since Monday (could indicate covering of offshore borrow) while retail were big sellers on Monday.


Korea Short Sell Ban: Not a Lot Covered on Monday; Shorts Holding On?

Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Korea banned all short selling in March 2020 and resumed short selling only on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/korea-stock-exchange-kospi-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26021:1" rel="noopener">KOSPI 200</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kosdaq-150-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31077:1" rel="noopener">KOSDAQ 150</a> index constituents in May 2021.</li>
<li>News reports indicate that there could be another short sell ban as soon as the coming week. Indications are that the ban could last 6 months.</li>
<li>There are many implications of a total short sell ban including futures backwardation, market manipulation, and no emerging to developed market promotion.</li>
</ul>


Korea banned all short selling in March 2020 and resumed short selling only on KOSPI 200 and KOSDAQ 150 index constituents in May 2021.
News reports indicate that there could be another short sell ban as soon as the coming week. Indications are that the ban could last 6 months.
There are many implications of a total short sell ban including futures backwardation, market manipulation, and no emerging to developed market promotion.


Korea Short Sell Ban: Background, Manipulation, Holdings, Flows, Short Interest, Implications

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There could be 2 changes for the FnGuide Top 10 Index and 1 change for the FnGuide Top 10 Equal Weight Index in June.</li>
<li>There will be capping inflows for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/samsung-electronics-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:191:1" rel="noopener">Samsung Electronics (005930 KS)</a>, capping outflows for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sk-hynix-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16955:1" rel="noopener">SK Hynix (000660 KS)</a> and funding outflows for the other index constituents.</li>
<li>A long adds/ short deletes trade has performed well historically for the FnGuide Top 10 Index with positive performance till implementation followed by reversion post implementation in most cases.</li>
</ul>


There could be 2 changes for the FnGuide Top 10 Index and 1 change for the FnGuide Top 10 Equal Weight Index in June.
There will be capping inflows for Samsung Electronics (005930 KS), capping outflows for SK Hynix (000660 KS) and funding outflows for the other index constituents.
A long adds/ short deletes trade has performed well historically for the FnGuide Top 10 Index with positive performance till implementation followed by reversion post implementation in most cases.


FnGuide Top 10 & Equal Weight Index Rebalance Preview: Outperformance Continues

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Clepsydra Capital

Investigate special situations, pairs, and index rebalancing trades in Korea.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>The pricing’s standard—20% discount, 14.82% dilution. First-round price on June 12, final on July 16. The 20% discount could offer a bigger arb window than Samsung SDI or Hanwha Aero.</li>
<li>Posco Holdings confirmed full participation, taking half of the offering (500B+ KRW). With the ESOP in play, only 40% (400B KRW) remains, limiting potential trading upside despite the 20% discount.</li>
<li>Future M’s down 8% in after-hours, Holdings 3.5%. The sharp drop follows no deal leaks and sector concerns, suggesting more downside tomorrow, with the price gap key for day-night trading.</li>
</ul>


The pricing’s standard—20% discount, 14.82% dilution. First-round price on June 12, final on July 16. The 20% discount could offer a bigger arb window than Samsung SDI or Hanwha Aero.
Posco Holdings confirmed full participation, taking half of the offering (500B+ KRW). With the ESOP in play, only 40% (400B KRW) remains, limiting potential trading upside despite the 20% discount.
Future M’s down 8% in after-hours, Holdings 3.5%. The sharp drop follows no deal leaks and sector concerns, suggesting more downside tomorrow, with the price gap key for day-night trading.


Unpacking Posco Future M's Rights Offering Disclosed After Market Close Today

South Korea

POSCO Holdings Inc. manufactures and distributes steel products. The Company produces crude steel, hot rolled steel, cold rolled steel, stainless steel, steel plates, wire rods, galvanized steel, electrical steel, and other related products. POSCO Holdings markets its products worldwide.

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POSCO Holdings (005490 KS)

Korea Value Up Index - Surprising Inclusions and Exclusions

There are many surprising inclusions and exclusions in the Korea Value Up Index. We provide 30 companies that are surprising inclusions and 10...

Douglas Kim

Korea Short Sell Ban: Not a Lot Covered on Monday; Shorts Holding On?

Not a lot of shorts were covered on Monday. There could be more covering in the near term as the market drifts lower. KOSPI200 underperformed...

Brian Freitas

Korea Short Sell Ban: Background, Manipulation, Holdings, Flows, Short Interest, Implications

Media reports indicate that there could be a temporary short sell ban in Korea. This could lead to futures backwardation, market manipulation and a...

Brian Freitas

FnGuide Top 10 & Equal Weight Index Rebalance Preview: Outperformance Continues

There could be 2 changes for the FnGuide Top 10 Index and 1 change for the FnGuide Top 10 Equal Weight Index in June. The forecast adds have...

Brian Freitas

Unpacking Posco Future M's Rights Offering Disclosed After Market Close Today

This post provides a detailed analysis of Posco Future M's rights offering, disclosed after market close today, examining the key terms, structure,...

Sanghyun Park

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