Global Materials | Industrials | Commodities

Rahul Jain

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>POSCO is shifting from cyclical steel to sustainable, high-margin materials and hydrogen technologies.</li>
<li>Earnings recovery and RBM scale-up underpin a 15–35% re-rating potential by FY27.</li>
<li>Strong asset base, improving margins, and carbon-neutral roadmap limit downside risk.</li>
</ul>


POSCO is shifting from cyclical steel to sustainable, high-margin materials and hydrogen technologies.
Earnings recovery and RBM scale-up underpin a 15–35% re-rating potential by FY27.
Strong asset base, improving margins, and carbon-neutral roadmap limit downside risk.


POSCO Holdings — From Steel Giant to Green Materials Powerhouse

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Douglas Research Advisory

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>POSCO has signed a strategic partnership with Cleveland-Cliffs. POSCO is likely to invest more than 1 trillion won to purchase at least a 10% stake in Cleveland-Cliffs by early 2026.</li>
<li>Local media have mentioned that POSCO is likely to invest more than 1 trillion won (US700 million) to purchase at least a 10% stake in Cleveland-Cliffs by 2026.</li>
<li>Overall, we believe that a potential US$700 million investment in Cleveland-Cliffs for about 10% stake in the company could have a positive impact on POSCO.</li>
</ul>


POSCO has signed a strategic partnership with Cleveland-Cliffs. POSCO is likely to invest more than 1 trillion won to purchase at least a 10% stake in Cleveland-Cliffs by early 2026.
Local media have mentioned that POSCO is likely to invest more than 1 trillion won (US700 million) to purchase at least a 10% stake in Cleveland-Cliffs by 2026.
Overall, we believe that a potential US$700 million investment in Cleveland-Cliffs for about 10% stake in the company could have a positive impact on POSCO.


POSCO: Signs a Strategic Partnership with Cleveland-Cliffs

<ul>
<li>The biggest potential M&amp;A event right now in Korea is the potential acquisition of HMM Co., Ltd. (011200 KS) by POSCO Holdings (005490 KS).</li>
<li>Overall, we believe there is a higher probability of POSCO backing out of this potential acquisition of HMM, rather than POSCO completing this M&amp;A deal.</li>
<li>Although POSCO claims that it spends about 3 trillion won annually on logistics, the actual synergies among these three businesses (steel, rechargeable battery, and logistics) remain murky.</li>
</ul>


The biggest potential M&amp;A event right now in Korea is the potential acquisition of HMM Co., Ltd. (011200 KS) by POSCO Holdings (005490 KS).
Overall, we believe there is a higher probability of POSCO backing out of this potential acquisition of HMM, rather than POSCO completing this M&amp;A deal.
Although POSCO claims that it spends about 3 trillion won annually on logistics, the actual synergies among these three businesses (steel, rechargeable battery, and logistics) remain murky.


<ul>
<li>After peaking in 2021, POSCO’s performance has steadily weakened, with revenue and margins declining due to softer steel prices and macro headwinds.</li>
<li>The group is gradually pivoting toward battery materials and EV supply chains via POSCO Future M, backed by large investments in lithium, cathodes, and green hydrogen.</li>
<li>Despite near-term profitability pressure, the stock trades at just 0.5× book and ~4.7× EV/EBITDA, offering compelling value if its transition strategy plays out.</li>
</ul>


After peaking in 2021, POSCO’s performance has steadily weakened, with revenue and margins declining due to softer steel prices and macro headwinds.
The group is gradually pivoting toward battery materials and EV supply chains via POSCO Future M, backed by large investments in lithium, cathodes, and green hydrogen.
Despite near-term profitability pressure, the stock trades at just 0.5× book and ~4.7× EV/EBITDA, offering compelling value if its transition strategy plays out.


POSCO Holdings (KRX: 005490.KQ | NYSE: PKX): Steel Giant in Transition with Deep-Value Appeal

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Since short selling was banned in November 2023, short interest has plunged in Korea as shorts were covered. Markets have not done much over the last 16 months though. </li>
<li>Foreign investor holdings have dropped from 32.05% in July to 28.57%. The top 25 stocks bought by foreign investors outperformed the top 25 stocks sold by 128% in 16 months.</li>
<li>There will be trade opportunities across indices, pref/ords, index migrations and deletions, potential market upgrades and overvalued stocks being sold.</li>
</ul>


Since short selling was banned in November 2023, short interest has plunged in Korea as shorts were covered. Markets have not done much over the last 16 months though. 
Foreign investor holdings have dropped from 32.05% in July to 28.57%. The top 25 stocks bought by foreign investors outperformed the top 25 stocks sold by 128% in 16 months.
There will be trade opportunities across indices, pref/ords, index migrations and deletions, potential market upgrades and overvalued stocks being sold.


Korea: Short Selling Is Back in March; Trade Ideas

South Korea

POSCO Holdings Inc. manufactures and distributes steel products. The Company produces crude steel, hot rolled steel, cold rolled steel, stainless steel, steel plates, wire rods, galvanized steel, electrical steel, and other related products. POSCO Holdings markets its products worldwide.

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POSCO Holdings (005490 KS)

POSCO Holdings — From Steel Giant to Green Materials Powerhouse

POSCO transitions to sustainable materials and hydrogen tech, with potential for significant re-rating and limited downside risk by FY27.

Rahul Jain

POSCO: Signs a Strategic Partnership with Cleveland-Cliffs

POSCO has signed a strategic partnership with Cleveland-Cliffs. POSCO is likely to invest more than 1 trillion won to purchase at least a 10% stake...

Douglas Kim

POSCO: Reviewing a Potential M&A of HMM

The biggest potential M&A event right now in Korea is the potential acquisition of HMM Co., Ltd. (011200 KS) by POSCO Holdings (005490 KS).

Douglas Kim

POSCO Holdings (KRX: 005490.KQ | NYSE: PKX): Steel Giant in Transition with Deep-Value Appeal

POSCO's shift towards battery materials and EV supply chains is driving investments despite recent revenue and margin declines, presenting...

Rahul Jain

Korea: Short Selling Is Back in March; Trade Ideas

Short selling in Korea commences from Monday. There will be a lot of interest in shorting stocks/sectors depending on how they have performed since...

Brian Freitas

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

POSCO Holdings — From Steel Giant to Green Materials Powerhouse

​POSCO transitions to sustainable materials and hydrogen tech, with potential for significant re-rating and limited downside risk by FY27.

Rahul Jain

POSCO: Signs a Strategic Partnership with Cleveland-Cliffs

POSCO has signed a strategic partnership with Cleveland-Cliffs. POSCO is likely to invest more than 1 trillion won to purchase at least a 10% stake...

Douglas Kim

POSCO: Reviewing a Potential M&A of HMM

The biggest potential M&A event right now in Korea is the potential acquisition of HMM Co., Ltd. (011200 KS) by POSCO Holdings (005490 KS).

Douglas Kim

POSCO Holdings (KRX: 005490.KQ | NYSE: PKX): Steel Giant in Transition with Deep-Value Appeal

​POSCO's shift towards battery materials and EV supply chains is driving investments despite recent revenue and margin declines, presenting...

Rahul Jain

Korea: Short Selling Is Back in March; Trade Ideas

Short selling in Korea commences from Monday. There will be a lot of interest in shorting stocks/sectors depending on how they have performed since...

Brian Freitas

POSCO transitions to sustainable materials and hydrogen tech, with potential for significant re-rating and limited downside risk by FY27.

POSCO's shift towards battery materials and EV supply chains is driving investments despite recent revenue and margin declines, presenting...