Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

Equity Bottom-Up

Industrial Bank Co Ltd A / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>In this China banks screener; we focus on the potential for increased credit quality headwinds going forward, given the weak GDP growth outlook</li>
<li>China bank shares have been poor performers and still we see selective buy opportunities, with better credit quality metrics</li>
<li>We favour Industrial Bank and CCB both of which have attractive valuations; Minsheng, on the other hand, remains exposed to a worsening of the credit quality cycle</li>
</ul>


In this China banks screener; we focus on the potential for increased credit quality headwinds going forward, given the weak GDP growth outlook
China bank shares have been poor performers and still we see selective buy opportunities, with better credit quality metrics
We favour Industrial Bank and CCB both of which have attractive valuations; Minsheng, on the other hand, remains exposed to a worsening of the credit quality cycle


China Banks Screen; Focus on the Credit Quality Risks

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of May 12th.</li>
<li>We estimate the weekly inflows to be US$1,581.0 million, led by financials, industrials, communication services sectors, and offset by consumer staples, information technology.</li>
<li>We highlight flows for Contemporary Amperex Technology, China Construction Bank, Kweichow Moutai, Luxshare Precision Industry, Han's Laser Technology Industry.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of May 12th.
We estimate the weekly inflows to be US$1,581.0 million, led by financials, industrials, communication services sectors, and offset by consumer staples, information technology.
We highlight flows for Contemporary Amperex Technology, China Construction Bank, Kweichow Moutai, Luxshare Precision Industry, Han's Laser Technology Industry.


Northbound Flows (May 12th): CATL, CCB, Moutai, Luxshare Precision, Han's Laser

<ul>
<li>We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 143 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 111.3% as of Apr 28th.</li>
<li>The average A-H premium changed by 0.8ppt week on week, led by consumer staples, consumer discretionary, health care and offset by information technology, energy, real estate.</li>
<li>We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for Postal Savings, BankComm, CCB, Sinopec, China Shenhua, CRRC, Tigermed, GWM.</li>
</ul>


We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 143 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 111.3% as of Apr 28th.
The average A-H premium changed by 0.8ppt week on week, led by consumer staples, consumer discretionary, health care and offset by information technology, energy, real estate.
We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for Postal Savings, BankComm, CCB, Sinopec, China Shenhua, CRRC, Tigermed, GWM.


A-H Premium Weekly (Apr 28th): Sinopec, China Shenhua, CRRC, Tigermed, GWM

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

Beijing Kingsoft Office Softwa / Index Rebalance

Beijing Kingsoft Office Softwa (688111 CH)

<ul>
<li>With 2 trading days left in the review period, we see 7 potential adds/5 potential deletes in June. However, there can be a maximum of 5 changes at a rebalance.</li>
<li>We estimate one-way turnover of 5.58% at the June rebalance leading to a one-way trade of CNY 4.22bn. Index arb balances could increase the impact on the stocks.</li>
<li>The potential adds have outperformed the potential deletes over the last couple of months and have underperformed over the last week.</li>
</ul>


With 2 trading days left in the review period, we see 7 potential adds/5 potential deletes in June. However, there can be a maximum of 5 changes at a rebalance.
We estimate one-way turnover of 5.58% at the June rebalance leading to a one-way trade of CNY 4.22bn. Index arb balances could increase the impact on the stocks.
The potential adds have outperformed the potential deletes over the last couple of months and have underperformed over the last week.


SSE50 Index Rebalance Preview: Five Changes Coming Up in June

<ul>
<li>We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 143 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 110.7% as of Apr 21st.</li>
<li>The average A-H premium changed by -1.8ppt week on week, led by communication services, real estate, information technology.</li>
<li>We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for Postal Savings Bank, China Rail, CRRC, China Coal, GWM, Everbright Sec, CSC Financial.</li>
</ul>


We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 143 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 110.7% as of Apr 21st.
The average A-H premium changed by -1.8ppt week on week, led by communication services, real estate, information technology.
We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for Postal Savings Bank, China Rail, CRRC, China Coal, GWM, Everbright Sec, CSC Financial.


A-H Premium Weekly (Apr 21st): Postal Savings Bank, China Rail, CRRC, China Coal, GWM

China

Postal Savings Bank of China Co., Ltd. provides banking services. The Company offers deposits, loans, fund settlement, and other services. Postal Savings Bank of China provides its services to individuals, enterprises, and other clients.

Postal Savings Bank of China C (601658 CH)

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Postal Savings Bank of China C (601658 CH)

China Banks Screen; Focus on the Credit Quality Risks

There is potential for worsening China banks credit quality going forward, but low valuations and our balance sheet reviews lead us to recommend...

Victor Galliano

Northbound Flows (May 12th): CATL, CCB, Moutai, Luxshare Precision, Han's Laser

We analyzed northbound Shanghai/Shenzhen connect flows in the past week and highlight flows for CATL, CCB, Moutai, Luxshare Precision, Han's Laser.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

A-H Premium Weekly (Apr 28th): Sinopec, China Shenhua, CRRC, Tigermed, GWM

We analyzed A-H premium changes in the past week and highlight A-H premium changes for Postal Savings, BankComm, CCB, Sinopec, China Shenhua, CRRC,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

SSE50 Index Rebalance Preview: Five Changes Coming Up in June

There will be 5 changes in June. Estimated 1-way turnover is 5.58% leading to a 1-way trade of CNY 4.22bn. The adds have outperformed the deletes...

Brian Freitas

A-H Premium Weekly (Apr 21st): Postal Savings Bank, China Rail, CRRC, China Coal, GWM

We analyzed A-H premium changes in the past week and highlight A-H premium changes for Postal Savings Bank, China Rail, CRRC, China Coal, GWM,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)