Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares MSCI Emerging Markets / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Indexes have plunged since violating our "lines-in-the-sand" of 3875 on EURO STOXX 50, 14,815 on the DAX, $54 on ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US), $75.25 on EAFE (EFA-US), and $99 on ACWI(ACWI-US).</li>
<li>More recently, Japan’s TOPIX broke below the key 1840 level, as the number of countries breaking down increases.</li>
<li>We remain bearish at the index level as long as these indexes continue to make lower highs, and we expect that any bottoming process would take weeks/months to develop.</li>
</ul>


Indexes have plunged since violating our "lines-in-the-sand" of 3875 on EURO STOXX 50, 14,815 on the DAX, $54 on ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US), $75.25 on EAFE (EFA-US), and $99 on ACWI(ACWI-US).
More recently, Japan’s TOPIX broke below the key 1840 level, as the number of countries breaking down increases.
We remain bearish at the index level as long as these indexes continue to make lower highs, and we expect that any bottoming process would take weeks/months to develop.


Monitoring For A Bottom; Focus On Defensives

<ul>
<li>Our neutral outlook has come down to price supports holding on the broad global indexes, including $54 on MSCI ACWIex-US (ACWX-US), $76.50 on EAFE (EFA-US), and $99 on ACWI (ACWI-US).</li>
<li>These support levels are now breaking which tilts our stance to bearish at the index level as long as the aforementioned indexes remain below their previous support levels.</li>
<li>We still see the EURO STOXX 50 and TOPIX as holding above support, while the Hang Seng and Bovespa appear to be bottoming, none of which paint a bearish picture.</li>
</ul>


Our neutral outlook has come down to price supports holding on the broad global indexes, including $54 on MSCI ACWIex-US (ACWX-US), $76.50 on EAFE (EFA-US), and $99 on ACWI (ACWI-US).
These support levels are now breaking which tilts our stance to bearish at the index level as long as the aforementioned indexes remain below their previous support levels.
We still see the EURO STOXX 50 and TOPIX as holding above support, while the Hang Seng and Bovespa appear to be bottoming, none of which paint a bearish picture.


Broad Indexes Violate Support But Bright Spots Remain; Buying Energy, Staples, and Utilities

India Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic, Beat the Street

Sudarshan Bhandari

India Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic

Beat the Street

Beat The Street was founded by Nimish Maheshwari and Sudarshan Bhandari, both of whom are Chartered Accountants by Profession, known for their expert analysis in the fields of Business, Sectoral analysis, and Corporate governance.

With a strong social media presence of 45,000+ Subscribers across various platforms, they are considered trusted voices in the industry. Their insights and analysis have been featured in some of India’s most prominent publications, including the Economic Times, Dalal Street Investment Journal, The Morning Context, and The Ken.

Their analysis on Bankrupt & Insolvent companies has been instrumental in saving investors from significant losses. They have a keen eye for identifying red flags and has identified exclusive redflags earlier in Vedanta, Nykaa, Dhani Services, Adani and many more.

Read Business Not Stock Prices

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>KEC International regained Power Grid tender access on June 26, 2026, and soon after announced INR 1,754 crore of fresh orders, including its largest USA tower order.</li>
<li>The timing is important. PGCIL is expected to release nearly INR 6,000 crore of tenders, while KEC’s FY27 order intake has already crossed INR 4,000 crore.</li>
<li>The order pipeline has improved, but Q4 execution was weak. The next two quarters will show whether fresh access and order wins translate into margin recovery.</li>
</ul>


KEC International regained Power Grid tender access on June 26, 2026, and soon after announced INR 1,754 crore of fresh orders, including its largest USA tower order.
The timing is important. PGCIL is expected to release nearly INR 6,000 crore of tenders, while KEC’s FY27 order intake has already crossed INR 4,000 crore.
The order pipeline has improved, but Q4 execution was weak. The next two quarters will show whether fresh access and order wins translate into margin recovery.


KEC International: Power Grid Relief, US Order Win, and the FY27 Execution Test

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>GEM managers strengthen Indian exposure during the recent market turbulence.  Average weights now stand at 9.61%, up from a low of 8.69% at the end of March 2020.</li>
<li>Ownership levels have increased across Energy, Consumer Discretionary, Health Care and Tech sectors but decreased in Utilities, Real Estate, Materials and Financials.  </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/reliance-industries-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:198:1" rel="noopener">Reliance Industries (RIL IN)</a> makes leadership challenge, closing in on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hdfc-bank-ltd-4b6b7a92-9087-468d-9dbe-ab169e77f014" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:558:1" rel="noopener">HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN)</a> as India's most widely held stock.</li>
<li>Recent ownership increases have pushed <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/reliance-industries-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:198:1" rel="noopener">Reliance Industries (RIL IN)</a> to the 3rd most widely invested stock and the largest Indian holding on an average weight basis. </li>
</ul>Analysis taken from our Global Emerging Markets research, covering 243 EM active funds with combined AUM of $370bn.


GEM managers strengthen Indian exposure during the recent market turbulence.  Average weights now stand at 9.61%, up from a low of 8.69% at the end of March 2020.
Ownership levels have increased across Energy, Consumer Discretionary, Health Care and Tech sectors but decreased in Utilities, Real Estate, Materials and Financials.  

Reliance Industries (RIL IN) makes leadership challenge, closing in on HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN) as India's most widely held stock.
Recent ownership increases have pushed Reliance Industries (RIL IN) to the 3rd most widely invested stock and the largest Indian holding on an average weight basis. 
Analysis taken from our Global Emerging Markets research, covering 243 EM active funds with combined AUM of $370bn.

India:  Confidence Returns Among EM Active Managers

APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Akshat Shah

APAC IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aequs-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45903:1" rel="noopener">Aequs Ltd (1009206D IN)</a> raised about US$104m in its India IPO in Dec 2025. The lockup on its promoters and pre-IPO investors is set to expire soon.</li>
<li>Aequs is an Indian aerospace precision component manufacturer providing vertically integrated product solutions for the aerospace and consumer industries, serving global OEMs and Tier-1 suppliers.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics and possible placement.</li>
</ul>



Aequs Ltd (1009206D IN) raised about US$104m in its India IPO in Dec 2025. The lockup on its promoters and pre-IPO investors is set to expire soon.
Aequs is an Indian aerospace precision component manufacturer providing vertically integrated product solutions for the aerospace and consumer industries, serving global OEMs and Tier-1 suppliers.
In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics and possible placement.


Aequitas: Aequs Ltd IPO Lockup Expiry - US$933m Lockup Release

India

Power Grid Corporation of India Limited is a central public sector undertaking primarily engaged in the transmission of bulk electric power across different states of India through its extensive network of transmission lines and substations. It also offers consultancy services and operates in the telecom sector through its brand POWERTEL. The company is headquartered in Gurugram, Haryana, India, and was founded on October 23, 1989.

Power Grid Corporation of India (PWGR IN)

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Power Grid Corporation of India (PWGR IN)

Monitoring For A Bottom; Focus On Defensives

Defensive Sectors including Consumer Staples, Health Care, and Utilities are emerging as leadership -- add exposure. Today we are focusing on...

Vermilion Research

Broad Indexes Violate Support But Bright Spots Remain; Buying Energy, Staples, and Utilities

We are highlighting Energy again because it is easily our favorite Sector. Additionally, defensive Sectors including Staples and Utilities display...

Vermilion Research

KEC International: Power Grid Relief, US Order Win, and the FY27 Execution Test

KEC International regains Power Grid tender access, secures INR 1,754 crore orders, but Q4 execution weak. Margin recovery hinges on upcoming...

Sudarshan Bhandari

India: Confidence Returns Among EM Active Managers

Global EM managers strengthen India exposure during the recent market turbulence. Ownership increases across Energy and Consumer Discretionary,...

Steven Holden

Aequitas: Aequs Ltd IPO Lockup Expiry - US$933m Lockup Release

Aequs Ltd raised about US$104m in its India IPO in Dec 2025. The lockup on its promoters and pre-IPO investors is set to expire soon.

Akshat Shah

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Monitoring For A Bottom; Focus On Defensives

Defensive Sectors including Consumer Staples, Health Care, and Utilities are emerging as leadership -- add exposure. Today we are focusing on...

Vermilion Research

Broad Indexes Violate Support But Bright Spots Remain; Buying Energy, Staples, and Utilities

We are highlighting Energy again because it is easily our favorite Sector. Additionally, defensive Sectors including Staples and Utilities display...

Vermilion Research

KEC International: Power Grid Relief, US Order Win, and the FY27 Execution Test

​KEC International regains Power Grid tender access, secures INR 1,754 crore orders, but Q4 execution weak. Margin recovery hinges on upcoming...

Sudarshan Bhandari

India: Confidence Returns Among EM Active Managers

Global EM managers strengthen India exposure during the recent market turbulence. Ownership increases across Energy and Consumer Discretionary,...

Steven Holden

Aequitas: Aequs Ltd IPO Lockup Expiry - US$933m Lockup Release

Aequs Ltd raised about US$104m in its India IPO in Dec 2025. The lockup on its promoters and pre-IPO investors is set to expire soon.

Akshat Shah

KEC International regains Power Grid tender access, secures INR 1,754 crore orders, but Q4 execution weak. Margin recovery hinges on upcoming...