IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/predictive-discovery-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15374:1" rel="noopener">Predictive Discovery (PDI AU)</a> has disclosed a competing all-scrip scheme offer from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/perseus-mining-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15306:1" rel="noopener">Perseus Mining (PRU AU)</a> at 0.136 Perseus shares per PDI share.</li>
<li>The Perseus offer is attractive compared to peer resource multiples and historical trading ranges. The Board had deemed the proposal superior to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/robex-resources-inc-5fcb5aec-772d-4972-be7e-30cad5c02e26" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45881:1" rel="noopener">Robex Resources (RBX CN)</a> merger transaction.</li>
<li>Robex has five business days to exercise matching rights. Robex will struggle to match due to the large gap in the offer values. </li>
</ul>



Predictive Discovery (PDI AU) has disclosed a competing all-scrip scheme offer from Perseus Mining (PRU AU) at 0.136 Perseus shares per PDI share.
The Perseus offer is attractive compared to peer resource multiples and historical trading ranges. The Board had deemed the proposal superior to the Robex Resources (RBX CN) merger transaction.
Robex has five business days to exercise matching rights. Robex will struggle to match due to the large gap in the offer values. 


Predictive Discovery (PDI AU): Perseus (PRU AU) Trumps Robex with a Competing Offer

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>On the 6th October, West African mid-tier gold play <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/predictive-discovery-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15374:1" rel="noopener">Predictive Discovery (PDI AU)</a> announced scrip-merger with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/robex-resources-inc-5fcb5aec-772d-4972-be7e-30cad5c02e26" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45881:1" rel="noopener">Robex Resources (RBX CN/RBX AU)</a>. Upon completion, PDI would hold 51% of shares out.</li>
<li>Immediately, rumours circled in local media that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/perseus-mining-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15306:1" rel="noopener">Perseus Mining (PRU AU)</a>, PDI's largest shareholder (17.8%), was poised to launch its own offer. That has now unfolded. </li>
<li>Perseus is offering 0.1360 new Perseus share for every PDI share, or an indicative consideration of A$0.778/share. PDI deemed terms superior. Robex has matching rights under its definitive agreement.</li>
</ul>


On the 6th October, West African mid-tier gold play Predictive Discovery (PDI AU) announced scrip-merger with Robex Resources (RBX CN/RBX AU). Upon completion, PDI would hold 51% of shares out.
Immediately, rumours circled in local media that Perseus Mining (PRU AU), PDI's largest shareholder (17.8%), was poised to launch its own offer. That has now unfolded. 
Perseus is offering 0.1360 new Perseus share for every PDI share, or an indicative consideration of A$0.778/share. PDI deemed terms superior. Robex has matching rights under its definitive agreement.


Predictive: Perseus Pitches Preferred Proposal

<ul>
<li>The gold rush continues as<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/predictive-discovery-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15374:1" rel="noopener"> Predictive (PDI AU)</a> and Robex (TSX-V: RBX, ASX: RXR) announce a scrip merger to form a West African mid-tier gold play.</li>
<li>Via a "definitive plan of arrangement", Robex shareholders will receive 8.667 PDI shares for every Robex share.  Upon completion, PDI will hold 51% of shares out, and Robex the remainder.</li>
<li>The Cohen Group and Eglington Mining (collectively holding 25.2% of Robex) are supportive. The key condition is Robex's shareholder vote, sometime in December, with a two-thirds threshold.</li>
</ul>


The gold rush continues as Predictive (PDI AU) and Robex (TSX-V: RBX, ASX: RXR) announce a scrip merger to form a West African mid-tier gold play.
Via a "definitive plan of arrangement", Robex shareholders will receive 8.667 PDI shares for every Robex share.  Upon completion, PDI will hold 51% of shares out, and Robex the remainder.
The Cohen Group and Eglington Mining (collectively holding 25.2% of Robex) are supportive. The key condition is Robex's shareholder vote, sometime in December, with a two-thirds threshold.


Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Nov 28th (reported today). The aggregated short interest was USD27.2bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in Lynas Rare Earths, James Hardie Industries, Transurban, CAR, Macquarie.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Nov 28th (reported today). The aggregated short interest was USD27.2bn.
We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Lynas Rare Earths, James Hardie Industries, Transurban, CAR, Macquarie.


ASX Short Interest Weekly (Nov 28th): Lynas Rare Earths, James Hardie Industries, Transurban, CAR

<ul>
<li>On the 26th September, precision parts manufacturer <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/spindex-industries-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17868:1" rel="noopener">Spindex Industries (SPE SP)</a> announced an Offer, by way of a Scheme, from the Tan Family, Spindex's controlling shareholder, with 74.95%.</li>
<li>The Tan's offered S$1.43/share, an okay 27.7% premium to undisturbed; but a decade-high price. A A$0.02/share was also bolted on (&amp; now paid). No competing Offer will emerge.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://links.sgx.com/FileOpen/Spindex_Scheme%20Document.ashx?App=Announcement&amp;FileID=868915" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Scheme Booklet is now out,</a> with a Scheme Meeting on the 18th December, and expected payment on the 11th Feb 2026. The IFA (Evolve Capital) says "fair &amp; reasonable".</li>
</ul>


On the 26th September, precision parts manufacturer Spindex Industries (SPE SP) announced an Offer, by way of a Scheme, from the Tan Family, Spindex's controlling shareholder, with 74.95%.
The Tan's offered S$1.43/share, an okay 27.7% premium to undisturbed; but a decade-high price. A A$0.02/share was also bolted on (&amp; now paid). No competing Offer will emerge.

The Scheme Booklet is now out, with a Scheme Meeting on the 18th December, and expected payment on the 11th Feb 2026. The IFA (Evolve Capital) says "fair &amp; reasonable".


Spindex Inds (SPE SP): 18th Dec Vote On MBO

Australia

Predictive Discovery Ltd. explores for gold in Burkina Faso in Africa, and uranium in Australia.  The Company operates in the Fada N'Gourma and Manga-Sebba greenstone belts in Burkina Faso; and in Northern Territory, Australia.

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Predictive Discovery (PDI AU)