Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/premier-anti-aging-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34292:1" rel="noopener">Premier Anti-Aging (4934 JP)</a> shares rose 6.1% today following a massive earnings miss and a substantial downgrade to FY23 guidance.</li>
<li>This is perhaps due to low liquidity and depressed prices as the share price dropped more than 85% since July last year.</li>
<li>We think there’s more downside to the stock, especially with DUO about to hit the bottom of the barrel and CANADEL and Clayence struggling to maintain growth momentum.</li>
</ul>



Premier Anti-Aging (4934 JP) shares rose 6.1% today following a massive earnings miss and a substantial downgrade to FY23 guidance.
This is perhaps due to low liquidity and depressed prices as the share price dropped more than 85% since July last year.
We think there’s more downside to the stock, especially with DUO about to hit the bottom of the barrel and CANADEL and Clayence struggling to maintain growth momentum.


Premier Anti-Aging Company: DUO Is Going Down

<ul>
<li>Japan’s number one skin cleansing balm, DUO seems to be in big trouble with monthly sales volume falling by almost 40% over the last 12 months.</li>
<li>However, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/premier-anti-aging-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34292:1" rel="noopener">Premier Anti-Aging (4934 JP)</a> is making progress with the development of other brands to reduce its dependence on DUO.</li>
<li>Despite the depressed margins in the near-term, we are quite positive about Premier Anti-Aging’s medium-long term outlook with new brands like CANADEL and clayance showing promising signs for the future.</li>
</ul>


Japan’s number one skin cleansing balm, DUO seems to be in big trouble with monthly sales volume falling by almost 40% over the last 12 months.
However, Premier Anti-Aging (4934 JP) is making progress with the development of other brands to reduce its dependence on DUO.
Despite the depressed margins in the near-term, we are quite positive about Premier Anti-Aging’s medium-long term outlook with new brands like CANADEL and clayance showing promising signs for the future.


Premier Anti-Aging: DUO’s Time Is Done, But CANADEL & Clayence Is Taking the Company Forward

<ul>
<li>We last wrote on this relatively small Japanese cosmetics company in September 2021 suggesting that it could be worth keeping an eye on given its cheaper valuation compared to peers.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/premier-anti-aging-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34292:1" rel="noopener">Premier Anti-Aging (4934 JP)</a> shares are down 80% from the peak, mostly because it was sold-off alongside the low quality names in Mothers.</li>
<li>It seems early to turn outright bullish on Premier Anti-Aging yet. However, if you are short other unprofitable names in Mothers, we think Premier Anti-Aging is a sensible long hedge.</li>
</ul>


We last wrote on this relatively small Japanese cosmetics company in September 2021 suggesting that it could be worth keeping an eye on given its cheaper valuation compared to peers.

Premier Anti-Aging (4934 JP) shares are down 80% from the peak, mostly because it was sold-off alongside the low quality names in Mothers.
It seems early to turn outright bullish on Premier Anti-Aging yet. However, if you are short other unprofitable names in Mothers, we think Premier Anti-Aging is a sensible long hedge.


Premier Anti-Aging Company:  Getting to an Interesting Level

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/premier-anti-aging-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34292:1" rel="noopener">Premier Anti-Aging (4934 JP)</a> is a relatively small Japanese cosmetics company with a limited number of brands focusing on the skin cleansing segment. The company’s shares rose more than 350% from the IPO price during its first year on the mothers section of the Tokyo Stock Exchange. However, valuation multiples remain towards the low side compared to peer multiples.</li>
<li>We think Premier Anti-Aging could re-rate towards the peer average multiples over the medium term. The downside risk is rather low for Premier Anti-Ageing but the share price momentum currently remains unsupportive. Thus, we would wait till a shift in the price momentum before considering a long position.</li>
</ul>



Premier Anti-Aging (4934 JP) is a relatively small Japanese cosmetics company with a limited number of brands focusing on the skin cleansing segment. The company’s shares rose more than 350% from the IPO price during its first year on the mothers section of the Tokyo Stock Exchange. However, valuation multiples remain towards the low side compared to peer multiples.
We think Premier Anti-Aging could re-rate towards the peer average multiples over the medium term. The downside risk is rather low for Premier Anti-Ageing but the share price momentum currently remains unsupportive. Thus, we would wait till a shift in the price momentum before considering a long position.


Premier Anti-Aging: Up More than 300%, But Remains Undervalued on Fundamentals

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/premier-anti-aging-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34292:1" rel="noopener">Premier Anti-Aging (4934 JP)</a> is a relatively small Japanese cosmetics company with a limited number of brands focusing on the skin cleansing segment. The company’s shares rose more than 350% from the IPO price during its first year on the mothers section of the Tokyo Stock Exchange. This was mainly driven by the excellent performance of Premier Anti-Aging’s main brand “Duo”, whose average monthly sales doubled from the pre-COVID level.</p><p>Having previously analysed the growth prospects of the “Duo” brand; <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/premier-anti-aging-company-s-duo-black-taking-the-market-by-storm" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Premier Anti-Aging Company’s Duo Black Taking the Market by Storm</a>, this insight takes a look at Premier Anti-Aging’s three supporting brands, which together generated around 15% of the company total revenue in 4QFY21.</p>

Premier Anti-Aging (4934 JP) is a relatively small Japanese cosmetics company with a limited number of brands focusing on the skin cleansing segment. The company’s shares rose more than 350% from the IPO price during its first year on the mothers section of the Tokyo Stock Exchange. This was mainly driven by the excellent performance of Premier Anti-Aging’s main brand “Duo”, whose average monthly sales doubled from the pre-COVID level.Having previously analysed the growth prospects of the “Duo” brand; Premier Anti-Aging Company’s Duo Black Taking the Market by Storm, this insight takes a look at Premier Anti-Aging’s three supporting brands, which together generated around 15% of the company total revenue in 4QFY21.

Premier Anti-Aging Company: Sitrana & Canadel Can Become Strong Second-Tier Brands

Japan

Premier Anti-Aging Co.,Ltd. manufactures and distributes cosmetics. The Company produces anti-aging, beauty, and health products and offers related consulting services. Premier Anti-Aging also operates beauty clinics and provides marketing research and information collection and analysis services.

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Premier Anti-Aging (4934 JP)

Premier Anti-Aging Company: DUO Is Going Down

We think there’s more downside to the Premier Anti Ageing, especially with DUO about to hit the bottom of the barrel and CANADEL and Clayence...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Premier Anti-Aging: DUO’s Time Is Done, But CANADEL & Clayence Is Taking the Company Forward

Despite the depressed margins in the near-term, we are quite positive about Premier Anti-Aging’s medium-long term outlook with new brands like...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Premier Anti-Aging Company: Getting to an Interesting Level

Premier Anti-Aging’s current multiple is around 27% below the sector’s cyclical low multiple suggesting that there could be significant upside...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Premier Anti-Aging: Up More than 300%, But Remains Undervalued on Fundamentals

Despite its smaller size, we think Premier Anti-Ageing deserves to trade in line with its peers due to its superior growth prospects.

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Premier Anti-Aging Company: Sitrana & Canadel Can Become Strong Second-Tier Brands

We think Premier Anti-Aging’s Duo brand is there or thereabout being as successful as Kose's DECORTE and Pola Orbis' POLA brands. The company’s...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

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