Quality-first, Business-perspective, Long-term, Urbem (HK) Limited

Urbem Capital

Quality-first, Business-perspective, Long-term

Quality-first, Business-perspective Strategy

Urbem (HK) Limited

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Eighteen S&amp;P 500 giants earned 20%-plus ROE through the 1990s; fourteen then trailed the index into 2026, the median by about 2.7 points a year.</li>
<li>Rich starting multiples, maturing runways, eroding moats and costly deals did the damage, while leverage and buybacks had flattered some of the returns on capital.</li>
<li>Microsoft renewed its runway and Altria started cheap; today's high-return screens should ask whether returns are still rising and whether the price still allows low-teens returns.</li>
</ul>


Eighteen S&amp;P 500 giants earned 20%-plus ROE through the 1990s; fourteen then trailed the index into 2026, the median by about 2.7 points a year.
Rich starting multiples, maturing runways, eroding moats and costly deals did the damage, while leverage and buybacks had flattered some of the returns on capital.
Microsoft renewed its runway and Altria started cheap; today's high-return screens should ask whether returns are still rising and whether the price still allows low-teens returns.


After They Were Giants: Why 2000's High-Return Stocks Mostly Lagged for 25 Years

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The amount of deposits in the US banking system are substantial in absolute terms and compared with recent periods and older periods</li>
<li>Of the USD17.4tr in deposits in the US banking system, 86% is liquid, available to access</li>
<li>Alongside concerns about the S&amp;P 500 Index or the broad US stock market, we believe it is worthwhile to keep in mind the amount of depositor liquidity</li>
</ul>


The amount of deposits in the US banking system are substantial in absolute terms and compared with recent periods and older periods
Of the USD17.4tr in deposits in the US banking system, 86% is liquid, available to access
Alongside concerns about the S&amp;P 500 Index or the broad US stock market, we believe it is worthwhile to keep in mind the amount of depositor liquidity


US Stock Market - US Banks Have Total Deposits of USD17.4tr, Which Was USD3-4tr ~30 Yrs Ago

Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Hong Kong dollar is strengthening as demand picks up and the carry trade unwinds quickly.  Put/Call Skew declines for HSTech Index as traders sentiment reverses.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hengan-international-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29:1" rel="noopener">Hengan International Group (1044 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/galaxy-entertainment-group-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:806:1" rel="noopener">Galaxy Entertainment Group (27 HK)</a> had breakouts from declining wedge patterns and have now formed new uptrends.
</li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wuxi-apptec" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23679:1" rel="noopener">Wuxi Biologics (2269 HK)</a> had a breakout reversal from a U-shaped pattern indicating more upside.  The stock's 200 DMA may provide little resistance to further re-rating.</li>
</ul>


Hong Kong dollar is strengthening as demand picks up and the carry trade unwinds quickly.  Put/Call Skew declines for HSTech Index as traders sentiment reverses.

Hengan International Group (1044 HK) and Galaxy Entertainment Group (27 HK) had breakouts from declining wedge patterns and have now formed new uptrends.

Wuxi Biologics (2269 HK) had a breakout reversal from a U-shaped pattern indicating more upside.  The stock's 200 DMA may provide little resistance to further re-rating.


Technically Speaking, Breakouts and Breakdowns: HONG KONG (SEPTEMBER 30)

Equity Long-Short Analyst

Pyari Menon

<ul>
<li>The three companies we write about this week are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/raytheon-technologies-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6453:1" rel="noopener">Raytheon Technologies (RTX US)</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/beiersdorf-ag" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21588:1" rel="noopener">Beiersdorf AG (BEI GR)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/king-slide-works-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7130:1" rel="noopener">King Slide Works (2059 TT)</a> 
</li>
<li>For the twenty-six weeks since inception ended 19 May the combined innovation portfolio was +2.5%, versus DJIA-0.9%, S&amp;P500+5.7%, Nasdaq+13.6%, Russell2000 -4.1%, MSCI-ACWI-ETF+6.9%, S&amp;P midcap 400 -2.2%, all in US$ terms</li>
<li>Small-Cap (+4.1%) versus Russell2000 (-4.1%) and midcap (+1.9%) versus S&amp;P400 (-2.2%) continues to outperform benchmarks, but the omission of mega-tech names has hurt large-cap portfolio (+2.6%) versus S&amp;P500 (+5.7%) . </li>
</ul>


The three companies we write about this week are Raytheon Technologies (RTX US)Beiersdorf AG (BEI GR) and King Slide Works (2059 TT) 

For the twenty-six weeks since inception ended 19 May the combined innovation portfolio was +2.5%, versus DJIA-0.9%, S&amp;P500+5.7%, Nasdaq+13.6%, Russell2000 -4.1%, MSCI-ACWI-ETF+6.9%, S&amp;P midcap 400 -2.2%, all in US$ terms
Small-Cap (+4.1%) versus Russell2000 (-4.1%) and midcap (+1.9%) versus S&amp;P400 (-2.2%) continues to outperform benchmarks, but the omission of mega-tech names has hurt large-cap portfolio (+2.6%) versus S&amp;P500 (+5.7%) . 


The Innovations Portfolios - Week Twenty Six

<ul>
<li>The three companies we write about this week are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/international-business-machines-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1064:1" rel="noopener">International Business Machines (IBM US)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/marvell-technology-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15837:1" rel="noopener">Marvell Technology (MRVL US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jtekt-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12197:1" rel="noopener">JTEKT Corp (6473 JP)</a>   </li>
<li>For the twenty-three weeks since inception ended 28 April the combined innovation portfolio was +3.3%, versus DJIA+1.0%, S&amp;P500+5.1%, Nasdaq+9.7%, Russell2000 -4.4%, MSCI-ACWI-ETF+6.5%, S&amp;P midcap 400 -0.8%, all in US$ terms</li>
<li>The innovation small-cap and midcap portfolios continue to outperform relative benchmarks, However, the willful omission of the mega cap tech names has been a drag on the large cap portfolio. </li>
</ul>


The three companies we write about this week are International Business Machines (IBM US) , Marvell Technology (MRVL US) and JTEKT Corp (6473 JP)   
For the twenty-three weeks since inception ended 28 April the combined innovation portfolio was +3.3%, versus DJIA+1.0%, S&amp;P500+5.1%, Nasdaq+9.7%, Russell2000 -4.4%, MSCI-ACWI-ETF+6.5%, S&amp;P midcap 400 -0.8%, all in US$ terms
The innovation small-cap and midcap portfolios continue to outperform relative benchmarks, However, the willful omission of the mega cap tech names has been a drag on the large cap portfolio. 


The Innovations Portfolios - Week Twenty Three

United States

The Procter & Gamble Company manufactures and markets consumer products in countries throughout the world. The Company provides products in the laundry and cleaning, paper, beauty care, food and beverage, and health care segments. Procter & Gamble products are sold primarily through mass merchandisers, grocery stores, membership club stores, drug stores, and neighborhood stores.

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Procter & Gamble Co (PG US)

After They Were Giants: Why 2000's High-Return Stocks Mostly Lagged for 25 Years

In 2000, America's highest-return giants looked like the safest quality stocks. Most then lagged the market for 25 years. Several warning signs...

Urbem Capital

US Stock Market - US Banks Have Total Deposits of USD17.4tr, Which Was USD3-4tr ~30 Yrs Ago

Total deposits now USD18.5 trillion at 26 November. This is up ~USD663 billion during this year alone. There remains plenty of liquidity in low...

Daniel Tabbush

Technically Speaking, Breakouts and Breakdowns: HONG KONG (SEPTEMBER 30)

Hong Kong dollar strengthens to the strong end of the band. Hengan and Galaxy share prices have both broken out of Falling Wedge patterns. Wuxi...

David Mudd

The Innovations Portfolios - Week Twenty Six

The small-Cap (+4.1%) and midcap (+1.9%) portfolios continues to outperform respective benchmarks, but the willful omission of mega-tech names has...

Pyari Menon

The Innovations Portfolios - Week Twenty Three

The innovation small-cap +5.6% versus Russell2000 -4.4% and innovation midcap portfolio +4.1% versus S&P 400 midcap -0.8% continue to outperform.

Pyari Menon

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