Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Progressive Corporation’s recent investor presentation emphasized its strong position and growth prospects within the U.S. personal auto and property insurance markets, underpinned by its strategic focus on servicing diverse customer segments.</li><li>The company highlighted its achievement as the largest U.S. personal auto writer by direct premiums and its successful penetration of lower-tier segments (Sams, Dianes, Wrights), noting that its market share in the higher-value Robinsons segment—customers bundling both auto and home insurance—is significantly lower, indicating a substantial growth opportunity.</li><li>Progressive’s auto insurance franchise benefits from its data-driven segmentation and underwriting discipline, allowing it to grow roughly twice as fast as the market over the past decade while maintaining a combined ratio seven points better than industry averages.</li></ul>

Progressive Corporation’s recent investor presentation emphasized its strong position and growth prospects within the U.S. personal auto and property insurance markets, underpinned by its strategic focus on servicing diverse customer segments.The company highlighted its achievement as the largest U.S. personal auto writer by direct premiums and its successful penetration of lower-tier segments (Sams, Dianes, Wrights), noting that its market share in the higher-value Robinsons segment—customers bundling both auto and home insurance—is significantly lower, indicating a substantial growth opportunity.Progressive’s auto insurance franchise benefits from its data-driven segmentation and underwriting discipline, allowing it to grow roughly twice as fast as the market over the past decade while maintaining a combined ratio seven points better than industry averages.

Progressive’s 82% Property Reach — Can Bundled Households Unlock The Next Growth Wave?

<ul><li>Progressive Corporation reported first quarter results that continue to demonstrate strong profitability and above-industry-average growth, particularly in the Personal Auto segment.</li><li>The company gained 1.9 points of market share in Personal Auto during 2025, reaching an 18.6% share, marking two consecutive years of significant share gains unmatched by other top competitors since at least 1996.</li><li>This growth was achieved alongside combined ratios below 90 in nine of the last ten quarters in Personal Auto, signaling profitable expansion.</li></ul>

Progressive Corporation reported first quarter results that continue to demonstrate strong profitability and above-industry-average growth, particularly in the Personal Auto segment.The company gained 1.9 points of market share in Personal Auto during 2025, reaching an 18.6% share, marking two consecutive years of significant share gains unmatched by other top competitors since at least 1996.This growth was achieved alongside combined ratios below 90 in nine of the last ten quarters in Personal Auto, signaling profitable expansion.

Progressive’s Sub-90 Combined Ratio Streak Shows Underwriting Power!

<ul><li>The Progressive Corporation reported significant growth and strong profitability for the full year 2025, following a year of substantial expansion in 2024.</li><li>The company added nearly $9 billion in net premiums written and approximately 3.7 million new policies, increasing its private passenger auto market share by around two percentage points to approximately 18.5%.</li><li>The portfolio of policies in force grew across its business lines, with personal vehicles leading at 12% growth, adding almost 3.5 million policies.</li></ul>

The Progressive Corporation reported significant growth and strong profitability for the full year 2025, following a year of substantial expansion in 2024.The company added nearly $9 billion in net premiums written and approximately 3.7 million new policies, increasing its private passenger auto market share by around two percentage points to approximately 18.5%.The portfolio of policies in force grew across its business lines, with personal vehicles leading at 12% growth, adding almost 3.5 million policies.

Progressive: Expanding Beyond Auto Insurance With Strategic Bets on Life and Pet Coverage!

<ul><li>Progressive Corporation's third-quarter 2025 results demonstrate a mixed performance with both positive and challenging elements.</li><li>Focusing on key metrics, the company reported an impressive combined ratio of 89.5% and a premium growth rate of 10%.</li><li>Additionally, the policies in force saw a 12% increase compared to the previous year, equating to 4.2 million more policyholders or nearly 7 million more vehicles in force.</li></ul>

Progressive Corporation's third-quarter 2025 results demonstrate a mixed performance with both positive and challenging elements.Focusing on key metrics, the company reported an impressive combined ratio of 89.5% and a premium growth rate of 10%.Additionally, the policies in force saw a 12% increase compared to the previous year, equating to 4.2 million more policyholders or nearly 7 million more vehicles in force.

The Progressive Corporation: A Data-First Roadmap to Staying Relevant as Accident Frequency Trends Lower Over Time!

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain bullish (as of our 4/21/26 Compass) on the S&amp;P 500 (SPX), Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM). </li>
<li>Both the SPX and QQQ are testing their 50-day MAs, and we are buyers on this pullback as we expect 50-day MA supports to hold.</li>
<li>We are upgrading Financials (XLF) and Utilities (XLU) to market weight with RS making bullish inflections. Buys: HOOD DAVE AFRM UPST SEZL KLAR TLN GEV</li>
</ul>


We remain bullish (as of our 4/21/26 Compass) on the S&amp;P 500 (SPX), Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM). 
Both the SPX and QQQ are testing their 50-day MAs, and we are buyers on this pullback as we expect 50-day MA supports to hold.
We are upgrading Financials (XLF) and Utilities (XLU) to market weight with RS making bullish inflections. Buys: HOOD DAVE AFRM UPST SEZL KLAR TLN GEV


Upgrading Financials and Utilities to Market Weight; Risk-On Signals Remain Dominant. HOOD DAVE AFRM

United States

The Progressive Corporation is an insurance holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provide personal and commercial automobile insurance and other specialty property-casualty insurance and related services throughout the United States.

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Progressive Corp (PGR US)

Progressive’s 82% Property Reach — Can Bundled Households Unlock The Next Growth Wave?

Progressive Corporation’s recent investor presentation emphasized its strong position and growth prospects within the U.S. personal auto and...

Baptista Research

Progressive’s Sub-90 Combined Ratio Streak Shows Underwriting Power!

Progressive Corporation reported first quarter results that continue to demonstrate strong profitability and above-industry-average growth,...

Baptista Research

Progressive: Expanding Beyond Auto Insurance With Strategic Bets on Life and Pet Coverage!

The Progressive Corporation reported significant growth and strong profitability for the full year 2025, following a year of substantial expansion...

Baptista Research

The Progressive Corporation: A Data-First Roadmap to Staying Relevant as Accident Frequency Trends Lower Over Time!

Progressive Corporation's third-quarter 2025 results demonstrate a mixed performance with both positive and challenging elements. Focusing on key...

Baptista Research

Upgrading Financials and Utilities to Market Weight; Risk-On Signals Remain Dominant. HOOD DAVE AFRM

Upgrading Financials and Utilities to Market Weight; Risk-On Signals Remain Dominant. Charts Highlighted: XLF, XLU, HOOD, DAVE, SEZL, AFRM, UPST,...

Vermilion Research

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