European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Offer Period: Both PPF and MFE offers expire August 13, 2025, allowing shareholders to weigh competing bids. The synchronized deadline heightens pressure on MFE to respond or risk losing influence.</li>
<li>Options Strategy: Buying the €7.10 call offers low-cost exposure to a potential bump. With breakeven at €7.26 and decent delta, it's a tactical way to play a revised MFE bid.</li>
<li>Spread Trade: A €7.10/€7.40 call spread caps risk at €0.10 and offers 3:1 reward potential. Attractive for investors expecting moderate upside without committing full premium or needing full stock exposure.</li>
</ul>


Offer Period: Both PPF and MFE offers expire August 13, 2025, allowing shareholders to weigh competing bids. The synchronized deadline heightens pressure on MFE to respond or risk losing influence.
Options Strategy: Buying the €7.10 call offers low-cost exposure to a potential bump. With breakeven at €7.26 and decent delta, it's a tactical way to play a revised MFE bid.
Spread Trade: A €7.10/€7.40 call spread caps risk at €0.10 and offers 3:1 reward potential. Attractive for investors expecting moderate upside without committing full premium or needing full stock exposure.


Event-Driven Optionality in ProSieben: Playing the Floor, Targeting the Upside

<ul>
<li>PPF launched a superior partial cash offer at €7.00 per share, positioning itself as a white knight against MFE’s lower-value bid and supporting ProSiebenSat.1’s current strategy.</li>
<li>MFE’s mixed cash-share offer, based on a €5.70 valuation, lacks a premium and aims for creeping control; it has published its offer prospectus but hasn’t raised the price.</li>
<li>Risk arbitrageurs may find an attractive setup in long ProSiebenSat.1, short MFE trades, though apportionment and offer risks require careful sizing and attention to German takeover rules.</li>
</ul>


PPF launched a superior partial cash offer at €7.00 per share, positioning itself as a white knight against MFE’s lower-value bid and supporting ProSiebenSat.1’s current strategy.
MFE’s mixed cash-share offer, based on a €5.70 valuation, lacks a premium and aims for creeping control; it has published its offer prospectus but hasn’t raised the price.
Risk arbitrageurs may find an attractive setup in long ProSiebenSat.1, short MFE trades, though apportionment and offer risks require careful sizing and attention to German takeover rules.


Broadcast Battles: PPF’s White Knight Bid Challenges MFE’s Media Ambition

<ul>
<li>MFE’s €5.70/share offer reflects strategic aims, not a traditional control premium, and values ProSieben near peer multiples amid industry disruption and weak organic growth prospects.</li>
<li>The deal structure and German takeover law enable MFE to carry out a creeping takeover strategy, allowing it to gradually increase its stake post-settlement without launching a new public offer.</li>
<li>Estimated net synergies of €1.00–1.39 per share, boosting the deal’s potential strategic return.Market skepticism is visible in the -10.2% gross spread.</li>
</ul>


MFE’s €5.70/share offer reflects strategic aims, not a traditional control premium, and values ProSieben near peer multiples amid industry disruption and weak organic growth prospects.
The deal structure and German takeover law enable MFE to carry out a creeping takeover strategy, allowing it to gradually increase its stake post-settlement without launching a new public offer.
Estimated net synergies of €1.00–1.39 per share, boosting the deal’s potential strategic return.Market skepticism is visible in the -10.2% gross spread.


MFE Tunes In to ProSieben for a Pan-European Broadcast Power Play

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>Glass Lewis has now joined ISS in recommending holders vote against the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tsuruha-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9536:1" rel="noopener">Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP)</a>/<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/welcia-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20895:1" rel="noopener">Welcia Holdings (3141 JP)</a> merger, presumably as it relates to the ratio.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mayne-pharma-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:757:1" rel="noopener">Mayne Pharma (MYX AU)</a>, ASIC AND Cosette have effectively signed off on the Scheme Booklet's veracity. That should be assuring to investors. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/canvest-environmental-protection-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:100:1" rel="noopener">Canvest Environmental Protection Group (1381 HK)</a>'s Scheme comfortable got up - despite a last minute hiccup - and poor governance - to adjourn the meeting.</li>
</ul>


Glass Lewis has now joined ISS in recommending holders vote against the Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP)/Welcia Holdings (3141 JP) merger, presumably as it relates to the ratio.

Mayne Pharma (MYX AU), ASIC AND Cosette have effectively signed off on the Scheme Booklet's veracity. That should be assuring to investors. 

Canvest Environmental Protection Group (1381 HK)'s Scheme comfortable got up - despite a last minute hiccup - and poor governance - to adjourn the meeting.


Last Week in Event SPACE: Tsuruha/Welcia Merger, Mayne Pharma, Canvst, Insignia Financial

<ul>
<li>At a zero net debt zero net cash (securities liquidated) Adjusted Price/Earnings Ratio of 11.3x expected Net Income, the multiple offered <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/makino-milling-machine-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5200:1" rel="noopener">Makino Milling Machine (6135 JP)</a> is not a knock-out.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/enn-energy-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:316:1" rel="noopener">ENN Energy (2688 HK)</a> investors hoping for a clean (er) exit, or where the back-end terms were clearly defined, will be disappointed. And minorities are active in this name. Avoid</li>
<li>New Trump Tariffs are not based on any actual tariffs, or non-tariff measures. The simple/explicit assumption is that if you run a trade surplus with the US, you are cheating.</li>
</ul>


At a zero net debt zero net cash (securities liquidated) Adjusted Price/Earnings Ratio of 11.3x expected Net Income, the multiple offered Makino Milling Machine (6135 JP) is not a knock-out.

ENN Energy (2688 HK) investors hoping for a clean (er) exit, or where the back-end terms were clearly defined, will be disappointed. And minorities are active in this name. Avoid
New Trump Tariffs are not based on any actual tariffs, or non-tariff measures. The simple/explicit assumption is that if you run a trade surplus with the US, you are cheating.


Last Week in Event SPACE: Makino, ENN Energy, Trump Tariffs, HKBN

Germany

ProSiebenSat.1 Media SE provides FTA and pay TV broadcasting services in Germany, Austria, and the German-speaking part of Switzerland. The Group operates digital entertainment activities such as advertising and subscription based VOD streaming services, a global multi-channel network, and online games. It also invests in digital commerce companies and produces TV programming.

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ProSiebenSat.1 Media SE (PSM GR)

Event-Driven Optionality in ProSieben: Playing the Floor, Targeting the Upside

PPF sets a €7.00 floor in ProSieben; market eyes MFE’s response. Optionality via calls or call spreads offers cheap upside exposure ahead of the...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Broadcast Battles: PPF’s White Knight Bid Challenges MFE’s Media Ambition

PPF launches a superior partial offer for ProSieben, challenging MFE's control bid. A pivotal contest in European media with clear risk-arb angles,...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

MFE Tunes In to ProSieben for a Pan-European Broadcast Power Play

MFE's offer for ProSieben reflects strategic aims, not a control premium, amid industry disruption and weak growth prospects. Market skepticism...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Last Week in Event SPACE: Tsuruha/Welcia Merger, Mayne Pharma, Canvst, Insignia Financial

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

Last Week in Event SPACE: Makino, ENN Energy, Trump Tariffs, HKBN

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Event-Driven Optionality in ProSieben: Playing the Floor, Targeting the Upside

PPF sets a €7.00 floor in ProSieben; market eyes MFE’s response. Optionality via calls or call spreads offers cheap upside exposure ahead of the...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Broadcast Battles: PPF’s White Knight Bid Challenges MFE’s Media Ambition

PPF launches a superior partial offer for ProSieben, challenging MFE's control bid. A pivotal contest in European media with clear risk-arb angles,...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

MFE Tunes In to ProSieben for a Pan-European Broadcast Power Play

​MFE's offer for ProSieben reflects strategic aims, not a control premium, amid industry disruption and weak growth prospects. Market skepticism...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Last Week in Event SPACE: Tsuruha/Welcia Merger, Mayne Pharma, Canvst, Insignia Financial

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

Last Week in Event SPACE: Makino, ENN Energy, Trump Tariffs, HKBN

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

MFE's offer for ProSieben reflects strategic aims, not a control premium, amid industry disruption and weak growth prospects. Market skepticism...