European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The EC’s conditional clearance removes the final regulatory risk for Prosus’s €20.30/share JET acquisition, leaving only procedural steps. Current 0.69% spread reflects a near-99% implied probability of deal completion.</li>
<li>Structural remedies (Delivery Hero stake cut, governance exit, voting restrictions) ensure JET and Delivery Hero remain independent competitors. An independent trustee will oversee compliance under the European Commission’s binding commitments.</li>
<li>Early entrants capture ~9.6% annualized return; late entrants ~4.0%. Post-clearance, the market shows minimal mispricing, making the trade appealing only for short-term, low-volatility capital deployment strategies.</li>
</ul>


The EC’s conditional clearance removes the final regulatory risk for Prosus’s €20.30/share JET acquisition, leaving only procedural steps. Current 0.69% spread reflects a near-99% implied probability of deal completion.
Structural remedies (Delivery Hero stake cut, governance exit, voting restrictions) ensure JET and Delivery Hero remain independent competitors. An independent trustee will oversee compliance under the European Commission’s binding commitments.
Early entrants capture ~9.6% annualized return; late entrants ~4.0%. Post-clearance, the market shows minimal mispricing, making the trade appealing only for short-term, low-volatility capital deployment strategies.


Prosus–JET Arbitrage: EC Clearance Granted, Minimal Spread Remains

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>As per news reports, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/prosus-nv" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28104:1" rel="noopener">Prosus NV (PRX NA)</a> could look to sell some/all of its <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meituan" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26970:1" rel="noopener">Meituan (3690 HK)</a> stake, worth around US$4bn</li>
<li>Prosus has held its stake for a few years, owing to the dividend payout by Tencent, but Meituan appears to be planning to take on one of its subsidiaries.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the possible selldown and other deal dynamics.</li>
</ul>


As per news reports, Prosus NV (PRX NA) could look to sell some/all of its Meituan (3690 HK) stake, worth around US$4bn
Prosus has held its stake for a few years, owing to the dividend payout by Tencent, but Meituan appears to be planning to take on one of its subsidiaries.
In this note, we will talk about the possible selldown and other deal dynamics.


Meituan Possible US$4bn Selldown - Will End up Being Well-Flagged but Sentiment Isn’t Great

<ul>
<li>Prosus's €20.30/share offer for JET trades at a 1.1% gross spread with EU clearance due 11 August; implied success probability stands at ~97% based on current market pricing.</li>
<li>Offer extended to 1 October to align with EC timeline. Prosus proposes structural remedies—stake cut and board exit from Delivery Hero—to resolve competition overlap in five EU countries.</li>
<li>Estimated settlement by mid-October. New entrants see 5.5% annualized return; early investors could realize 9.6%. Downside risk to €12.43 implies a 38% loss if deal breaks unexpectedly.</li>
</ul>


Prosus's €20.30/share offer for JET trades at a 1.1% gross spread with EU clearance due 11 August; implied success probability stands at ~97% based on current market pricing.
Offer extended to 1 October to align with EC timeline. Prosus proposes structural remedies—stake cut and board exit from Delivery Hero—to resolve competition overlap in five EU countries.
Estimated settlement by mid-October. New entrants see 5.5% annualized return; early investors could realize 9.6%. Downside risk to €12.43 implies a 38% loss if deal breaks unexpectedly.


Prosus–JET Arbitrage: Tight Spread, High Certainty Ahead of EC Decision

Quantitative Equity Analyst, DMA

Charlotte van Tiddens, CFA

Quantitative Equity Analyst

Technology-First Company

DMA is a technology-first company that provides an end-to-end SaaS solution to institutional investors. DMA enables regulated entities like asset managers, wealth managers, investment managers and financial advisors to connect their front and back office, break silos and reduce headcount.

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>Following Ibex’s disposal of its 28% stake in Pepcor earlier this week, Pepcor (PPH) will be upweighted in the closing auction today.</li>
<li>PPH’s free float will increase to 99.82% from 71.61%. Passive funds and hedgers will need to increase their exposure by between 37 and 47bps.</li>
<li>In addition, active managers looking to maintain their active positioning would need to buy PPH, failure to do so would result in an underweight of 39bps (assuming a Capped ALSI benchmark and an active weight of 0%).</li>
</ul>


Following Ibex’s disposal of its 28% stake in Pepcor earlier this week, Pepcor (PPH) will be upweighted in the closing auction today.
PPH’s free float will increase to 99.82% from 71.61%. Passive funds and hedgers will need to increase their exposure by between 37 and 47bps.
In addition, active managers looking to maintain their active positioning would need to buy PPH, failure to do so would result in an underweight of 39bps (assuming a Capped ALSI benchmark and an active weight of 0%).


JSE Indexation Research: PPH to Be Upweighted in Closing Auction Today, PPH Rebalance Yesterday

Northam Platinum Holdings  / Index Rebalance

<ul><li>JSE indices are due for rebalancing in the closing auction tomorrow.                              </li><li>NPH will enter the Top 40, with GLN falling out. </li><li>GLN will also fall out of the RESI 10, with NPH entering.</li></ul>

JSE indices are due for rebalancing in the closing auction tomorrow.                              NPH will enter the Top 40, with GLN falling out. GLN will also fall out of the RESI 10, with NPH entering.

FTSE/JSE June 2025 Rebalance: GLN to Fall Out of Top 40, NPH to Enter

China

Prosus N.V. provides internet based services. The Company focuses on investments in internet, digital media, e-commerce retailing, and consumer internet companies. Prosus serves customers worldwide.

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Prosus NV (PRX SJ)

Prosus–JET Arbitrage: EC Clearance Granted, Minimal Spread Remains

EC clears Prosus’s €4.1bn takeover of Just Eat Takeaway with conditions, removing final regulatory hurdle and paving the way for completion by...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Meituan Possible US$4bn Selldown - Will End up Being Well-Flagged but Sentiment Isn’t Great

As per recent media reports, Prosus has begun selling some of its stake in Meituan. Although for now it appears to be selling on market instead of...

Sumeet Singh

Prosus–JET Arbitrage: Tight Spread, High Certainty Ahead of EC Decision

Prosus’s JET offer nears regulatory decision with a tight 1.1% spread. High probability of success offers 5.5% annualized return; downside risk...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

JSE Indexation Research: PPH to Be Upweighted in Closing Auction Today, PPH Rebalance Yesterday

Following Ibex’s disposal of its 28% stake in Pepcor earlier this week, Pepcor (PPH) will be upweighted in the closing auction today.

DMA

FTSE/JSE June 2025 Rebalance: GLN to Fall Out of Top 40, NPH to Enter

NPN & PRX top sells as shares in issue fall. BTI, CFR & AGL scrip moves offshore. JSE indices are due for rebalancing in the closing auction tomorrow.

DMA

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