Index Rebal Trades & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal Trades & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at a group of names with reasonably high likelihood of being involved in index changes for the Hang Seng Index in September 2023.</li>
<li>The index changes for the December 2023 rebalance will be announced in mid-November (17 Nov) and implemented in early-December (with effect from 4 Dec).</li>
<li>Although the Hang Seng index has a highly subjective constituent selection process and index changes are somewhat unpredictable, we will continue sharing our thoughts for each quarterly review.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we take a look at a group of names with reasonably high likelihood of being involved in index changes for the Hang Seng Index in September 2023.
The index changes for the December 2023 rebalance will be announced in mid-November (17 Nov) and implemented in early-December (with effect from 4 Dec).
Although the Hang Seng index has a highly subjective constituent selection process and index changes are somewhat unpredictable, we will continue sharing our thoughts for each quarterly review.


Quiddity Leaderboard for Hang Seng Index Dec 23: High Conviction Names Have Decent Momentum Vs HSI

Fintech & EM-focused Analyst, KT Capital Group

Alec Tseung

Fintech & EM-focused Analyst

KT Capital Group

Principal investments and advisory firm that focuses on connecting the CIS countries with East Asia.

Principal investments and advisory firm

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>PICC P&amp;C's thesis has materialized and played out well this year, with the stock being HK's best-performing Chinese insurer.</li>
<li>Samsung Life's share price recovered slightly since our last update as LT Korean government bond yields further increased.</li>
<li>Prudential's thesis is slowly being played out, with its P/BV discount to AIA having narrowed; but still a long way to go. </li>
</ul>


PICC P&amp;C's thesis has materialized and played out well this year, with the stock being HK's best-performing Chinese insurer.
Samsung Life's share price recovered slightly since our last update as LT Korean government bond yields further increased.
Prudential's thesis is slowly being played out, with its P/BV discount to AIA having narrowed; but still a long way to go. 


APAC Insurers Series (#3): Initial Theses At Different Stages of Being Played Out

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

<ul><li>This is our first report on Prudential, a major provider of life and health insurance.</li><li>Prudential had a very strong quarter with 19% sales growth.</li><li>Despite slower revenue recognition in the life insurance market, the company has been witnessing strong cash flows and returned over $800 million to shareholders in the latest quarter.</li></ul>

This is our first report on Prudential, a major provider of life and health insurance.Prudential had a very strong quarter with 19% sales growth.Despite slower revenue recognition in the life insurance market, the company has been witnessing strong cash flows and returned over $800 million to shareholders in the latest quarter.

Prudential PLC: Initiation of Coverage – Expansion In Emerging Markets & Other Drivers

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Last evening, the CSRC and the SFC agreed to further deepen mutual stock market access between the Mainland and Hong Kong and promote the development of both capital markets.</li>
<li>For Southbound Stock Connect, eligible foreign companies primary-listed in Hong Kong will become eligible. That could mean 5 additions to Stock Connect.</li>
<li>Additionally, Southbound access via Shanghai Stock Connect will be expanded to being it in alignment with Shenzhen Stock Connect. That could see 131 stocks added to Shanghai Stock Connect.</li>
</ul>


Last evening, the CSRC and the SFC agreed to further deepen mutual stock market access between the Mainland and Hong Kong and promote the development of both capital markets.
For Southbound Stock Connect, eligible foreign companies primary-listed in Hong Kong will become eligible. That could mean 5 additions to Stock Connect.
Additionally, Southbound access via Shanghai Stock Connect will be expanded to being it in alignment with Shenzhen Stock Connect. That could see 131 stocks added to Shanghai Stock Connect.


Southbound Stock Connect Expansion: Potential Adds in 2023

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

Sunshine Insurance Group  Lt / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sunshine-insurance-group-company-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36464:1" rel="noopener">Sunshine Insurance (6963 HK)</a> priced its IPO at HK$5.83 per share to raise net proceeds of HK$6.4 billion (US$824 million). The shares will start trading tomorrow.</li>
<li>We previously discussed the IPO in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/sunshine-insurance-group-ipo-the-bull-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:85205" rel="noopener">Sunshine Insurance Group IPO: The Bull Case</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/sunshine-insurance-group-ipo-the-bear-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:85253" rel="noopener">Sunshine Insurance Group IPO: The Bear Case</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/sunshine-insurance-group-ipo-valuation-insights" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:85356" rel="noopener">Sunshine Insurance Group IPO: Valuation Insights</a>. </li>
<li>Peers have modestly re-rated and the IPO price continues to imply a premium to the median peer CY2022 P/EV and P/B multiples. Therefore, the IPO price remains unattractive.</li>
</ul>



Sunshine Insurance (6963 HK) priced its IPO at HK$5.83 per share to raise net proceeds of HK$6.4 billion (US$824 million). The shares will start trading tomorrow.
We previously discussed the IPO in Sunshine Insurance Group IPO: The Bull Case, Sunshine Insurance Group IPO: The Bear Case and Sunshine Insurance Group IPO: Valuation Insights. 
Peers have modestly re-rated and the IPO price continues to imply a premium to the median peer CY2022 P/EV and P/B multiples. Therefore, the IPO price remains unattractive.


Sunshine Insurance Group IPO: Trading Debut

Hong Kong

Prudential Public Limited Company provides long term savings and protection products. The Company offers life and health insurance for long term business including asset management services. Prudential serves customers in Asia and Africa.

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Prudential (2378 HK)

Quiddity Leaderboard for Hang Seng Index Dec 23: High Conviction Names Have Decent Momentum Vs HSI

The Hang Seng Index changes for Dec 23 will be published after the close on Friday 17th November 2023. In this insight, you can see Quiddity's...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

APAC Insurers Series (#3): Initial Theses At Different Stages of Being Played Out

Theses for the three insurers we highlighted are at different stages of being played out: PICC P&C's has most materialized while Pru's still has a...

Alec Tseung

Prudential PLC: Initiation of Coverage – Expansion In Emerging Markets & Other Drivers

This is our first report on Prudential, a major provider of life and health insurance. Prudential had a very strong quarter with 19% sales...

Baptista Research

Southbound Stock Connect Expansion: Potential Adds in 2023

Expansion to Southbound Stock Connect will include foreign stocks and eligibility will be aligned for Shanghai & Shenzhen. Preparation will take...

Brian Freitas

Sunshine Insurance Group IPO: Trading Debut

Peers have modestly re-rated and the IPO price continues to imply a premium to the median peer CY2022 P/EV and P/B multiples. Therefore, the IPO...

Arun George

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