IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

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<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fwd-group-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34332:1" rel="noopener">FWD Group Holdings (FWD HK)</a> is a pan-Asia insurer that has filed its PHIP to raise around US$500 million. </li>
<li>FWD initially aimed for an NYSE IPO in 2021 to raise US$2-3 billion at a US$13-15 billion valuation. An HKEx listing in 2022 was shelved due to market conditions. </li>
<li>This note outlines the investment case. My analysis suggests that the fundamentals are mixed as FWD is rapidly growing its new business, but at the expense of its margin. </li>
</ul>



FWD Group Holdings (FWD HK) is a pan-Asia insurer that has filed its PHIP to raise around US$500 million. 
FWD initially aimed for an NYSE IPO in 2021 to raise US$2-3 billion at a US$13-15 billion valuation. An HKEx listing in 2022 was shelved due to market conditions. 
This note outlines the investment case. My analysis suggests that the fundamentals are mixed as FWD is rapidly growing its new business, but at the expense of its margin. 


Insurance & Central Asia-focused Analyst, KT Capital Group

Alec Tseung

Insurance & Central Asia-focused Analyst

KT Capital Group

Principal investments and advisory firm that focuses on connecting the CIS countries with East Asia.

Principal investments and advisory firm

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<li>While FWD has achieved strong growth in certain key markets, its overall new business growth rate didn't differ significantly from the peers, AIA and Prudential.</li>
<li>Compared to the peers, it offers more exposure to Thailand/Cambodia, in terms of APE and VNB mix. But, the peers still have better scale in these markets.</li>
<li>We struggle to develop the thesis unless FWD's valuation is really attractive. It's also not expecting to pay any dividends in the near future while both peers do.</li>
</ul>


While FWD has achieved strong growth in certain key markets, its overall new business growth rate didn't differ significantly from the peers, AIA and Prudential.
Compared to the peers, it offers more exposure to Thailand/Cambodia, in terms of APE and VNB mix. But, the peers still have better scale in these markets.
We struggle to develop the thesis unless FWD's valuation is really attractive. It's also not expecting to pay any dividends in the near future while both peers do.


Private Capital Markets

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<li>The saga of CK Hutchison's Panama Canal Ports sale might also impact FWD due to tensions between China and the Li family.</li>
<li>Despite minimal mainland China presence, FWD faces exposure through its significant HK and Macau operations; HK and Macau contributed 40% - 50% of the group's VNB and operating profits.</li>
<li>After FWD's failed IPO attempts, PCG might consider a strategic sale for liquidity; FWD might offer a good strategic fit to Korean insurers looking to expand to Southeast Asia. </li>
</ul>


The saga of CK Hutchison's Panama Canal Ports sale might also impact FWD due to tensions between China and the Li family.
Despite minimal mainland China presence, FWD faces exposure through its significant HK and Macau operations; HK and Macau contributed 40% - 50% of the group's VNB and operating profits.
After FWD's failed IPO attempts, PCG might consider a strategic sale for liquidity; FWD might offer a good strategic fit to Korean insurers looking to expand to Southeast Asia. 


FWD: An Ideal Acquisition Target for Korean Insurers?

APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Clarence Chu

APAC IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Seoul Guarantee Insurance / Equity Capital Markets

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<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seoul-guarantee-insurance-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40123:1" rel="noopener">Seoul Guarantee Insurance (031210 KS)</a> is looking to raise around US$155m in its Korean IPO. </li>
<li>Seoul Guarantee Insurance (SGI) is a guarantee insurance firm operating predominantly in Korea.</li>
<li>In this note, we discuss its recent financials, and share our updated thoughts on valuation.</li>
</ul>



Seoul Guarantee Insurance (031210 KS) is looking to raise around US$155m in its Korean IPO. 
Seoul Guarantee Insurance (SGI) is a guarantee insurance firm operating predominantly in Korea.
In this note, we discuss its recent financials, and share our updated thoughts on valuation.


Seoul Guarantee Insurance Pre-IPO Updated Thoughts on Valuation - Weaker Performance than Expected

Event-Driven

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<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/great-eastern-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13993:1" rel="noopener">Great Eastern Holdings (GE SP)</a> IFA opines that the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oversea-chinese-banking-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:114:1" rel="noopener">OCBC (OCBC SP)</a> S$25.60 offer is NOT fair but reasonable as it is below the valuation range of S$28.87-S$36.19 per share.</li>
<li>In response, OCBC declared the price final, and the final closing date is 12 July. Great Eastern will likely breach free float requirements and be suspended when the offer closes.</li>
<li>The offer will likely follow the Boustead Projects/Boustead Singapore blueprint, where SGX RegCo eventually (took seven months) enabled dissenters to receive a fair offer with a 24% uplift. </li>
</ul>



Great Eastern Holdings (GE SP) IFA opines that the OCBC (OCBC SP) S$25.60 offer is NOT fair but reasonable as it is below the valuation range of S$28.87-S$36.19 per share.
In response, OCBC declared the price final, and the final closing date is 12 July. Great Eastern will likely breach free float requirements and be suspended when the offer closes.
The offer will likely follow the Boustead Projects/Boustead Singapore blueprint, where SGX RegCo eventually (took seven months) enabled dissenters to receive a fair offer with a 24% uplift. 


Great Eastern Holdings (GE SP): Playbook as OCBC Offer Declared Final, IFA Opines NOT Fair

Hong Kong

Prudential is a British multinational insurance and asset management company focused on providing life and health insurance and long-term savings products. It primarily serves customers in Asia and Africa, with its asset management business, Eastspring Investments, operating across Asia. The company was founded in London in May 1848 and is headquartered in London, England and Hong Kong.

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Prudential (PRU LN)

FWD Group IPO: The Investment Case

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Arun George

FWD IPO: What Are We Buying?

As FWD's scale still lags behind both AIA and Prudential and its growth rate was also merely in line with them, we struggle to develop the...

Alec Tseung

FWD: An Ideal Acquisition Target for Korean Insurers?

FWD decided to make another IPO application in Hong Kong on Monday (19th), given the recent share price rebound in the market. This is the 3rd...

Alec Tseung

Seoul Guarantee Insurance Pre-IPO Updated Thoughts on Valuation - Weaker Performance than Expected

Seoul Guarantee Insurance (031210 KS) is looking to raise around US$155m in its Korean IPO. In this note, we discuss its recent financials, and...

Clarence Chu

Great Eastern Holdings (GE SP): Playbook as OCBC Offer Declared Final, IFA Opines NOT Fair

Shares will likely breach float requirements and be suspended at offer close. While trading through terms, recent precedent suggests that investors...

Arun George

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