Senior Credit Analyst, Lucror Analytics

Leonard Law, CFA

Senior Credit Analyst

High Yield Experts

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics is a leading credit and ESG research specialist and a provider of technology solutions for differentiated fixed income strategies. Our roots are in bottom-up fundamental credit analysis with a specialization in high yield corporate credits from Europe, Asia and Latin America. We are one of few research specialists integrating ESG considerations with fundamental credit research through a dedicated ESG platform. Our ESG assessment covers five key criteria: Disclosure, E,S, & G Pillars, Controversies, ESG Impact on Credit and ESG Momentum.

Recognizing the importance and value-add of Factor Investing in fixed income, Lucror developed the Smart Quant Navigator (SQN), an intuitive platform that helps clients devise and implement factor-based strategies ranging from pure quant to active fundamental, with integrated ESG.

Our company has been at the forefront of developments in the fixed income markets, identifying opportunities and consistently delivering new products and value-adding solutions to clients. Lucror has close relationships with the largest and most reputable asset managers, family offices, hedge funds, investment and wealth managers globally.

Credit

In this report, we analyse the impact of the Ukraine-Russia conflict on the various sectors and companies in our European coverage universe. We also include a list of bonds for which we see good value. The direct impact from the actions taken to stop the war (including sanctions) should be insignificant or moderate for most companies under our coverage, but these names could be severely affected: Air Baltic, Consolis, Kem One, KME, Lecta, Naviera Armas, Nobian, Nordex, Norican, Oriflame, Pro-Gest, Profine, Raffinerie Heide, Stada and Vedanta Resources.

  In this report, we analyse the impact of the Ukraine-Russia conflict on the various sectors and companies in our European coverage universe. We also include a list of bonds for which we see good value. The direct impact from the actions taken to stop the war (including sanctions) should be insignificant or moderate for most companies under our coverage, but these names could be severely affected: Air Baltic, Consolis, Kem One, KME, Lecta, Naviera Armas, Nobian, Nordex, Norican, Oriflame, Pro-Gest, Profine, Raffinerie Heide, Stada and Vedanta Resources. 

Impact Of Ukraine Conflict On Lucror’S European Coverage Universe - Lucror Analytics

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

EURO STOXX 50 Price EUR / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We continue to view the latest pullback as healthy and normal within the ongoing bull market on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) and the EURO STOXX 50, as discussed April 18</li>
<li>Discussed last Thursday(4/18/24) how further downside may be limited with these indexes 4-5% off their highs, combined with ACWI-US testing gap support ($105) and the EURO STOXX50 testing 6-month uptrend. </li>
<li>So far, these supports have held strong, and Japan's TOPIX has also held strong above 2615 support -- with all producing strong bounces far this week.</li>
</ul>


We continue to view the latest pullback as healthy and normal within the ongoing bull market on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) and the EURO STOXX 50, as discussed April 18
Discussed last Thursday(4/18/24) how further downside may be limited with these indexes 4-5% off their highs, combined with ACWI-US testing gap support ($105) and the EURO STOXX50 testing 6-month uptrend. 
So far, these supports have held strong, and Japan's TOPIX has also held strong above 2615 support -- with all producing strong bounces far this week.


Upgrading Europe to Overweight; Supports Holding on MSCI ACWI, ACWI Ex-US, EAFE, and EM

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pasona-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15778:1" rel="noopener">Pasona (2168 JP)</a>will pay out 10-20% of the extraordinary gain from the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/benefit-one-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14502:1" rel="noopener">Benefit One (2412 JP)</a> sale. It will take its sweet time doing so. For no apparent reason.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-lung-properties-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:49:1" rel="noopener">Hang Lung Properties (101 HK)</a>'s first-ever scrip dividend provides the means for the Chan Family to indirectly chip away at minorities. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hollysys-automation-technologies" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26078:1" rel="noopener">Hollysys Automation Technologies (HOLI US)</a> accountant resignation announcement is a nothing burger. An  update on PRC regulatory approvals would be welcome about now though. </li>
</ul>



Pasona (2168 JP)will pay out 10-20% of the extraordinary gain from the Benefit One (2412 JP) sale. It will take its sweet time doing so. For no apparent reason.

Hang Lung Properties (101 HK)'s first-ever scrip dividend provides the means for the Chan Family to indirectly chip away at minorities. 

Hollysys Automation Technologies (HOLI US) accountant resignation announcement is a nothing burger. An  update on PRC regulatory approvals would be welcome about now though. 


Last Week in Event SPACE: Pasona/Benefit One, Hang Lung Properties, Hollysys, Azure Minerals

European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/prysmian-spa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21213:1" rel="noopener">Prysmian SpA (PRY IM)</a> agreed to acquire <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/encore-wire-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1863:1" rel="noopener">Encore Wire (WIRE US)</a> for $290/share in cash, 29% premium to 90-day VWAP, implied EV of €4,264 million, 11x EV/NTM EBITDA and 16.9x Fwd P/E.</li>
<li>Encore wire has traded at an average 6.4x EV/EBITDA and 10.6x P/E over the last 5 years. I set my TP at $290. Synergies could be valued at $51/share.</li>
<li>The shares are trading slightly above the offer price. Gross spread is +0.2%. The volume traded since announcement has been very strong. There is room for some sweetening. Long.</li>
</ul>



Prysmian SpA (PRY IM) agreed to acquire Encore Wire (WIRE US) for $290/share in cash, 29% premium to 90-day VWAP, implied EV of €4,264 million, 11x EV/NTM EBITDA and 16.9x Fwd P/E.
Encore wire has traded at an average 6.4x EV/EBITDA and 10.6x P/E over the last 5 years. I set my TP at $290. Synergies could be valued at $51/share.
The shares are trading slightly above the offer price. Gross spread is +0.2%. The volume traded since announcement has been very strong. There is room for some sweetening. Long.


<ul>
<li>Since early November 2023 we have been expecting global equities (MSCI ACWI) to stage a year-end rally that would continue into the early part of 2024.</li>
<li>As we progress through the “early part” of 2024, more global indexes and Sectors are breaking out and starting to participate in the upside. This is classic bull market behavior.</li>
<li>Our outlook remains bullish; continue to ride this trend higher, and treat pullbacks as buying opportunities. Actionable Themes: Hong Kong/China, Consumer Discretionary, Industrials, Energy/Coal, and Polish Banks</li>
</ul>


Since early November 2023 we have been expecting global equities (MSCI ACWI) to stage a year-end rally that would continue into the early part of 2024.
As we progress through the “early part” of 2024, more global indexes and Sectors are breaking out and starting to participate in the upside. This is classic bull market behavior.
Our outlook remains bullish; continue to ride this trend higher, and treat pullbacks as buying opportunities. Actionable Themes: Hong Kong/China, Consumer Discretionary, Industrials, Energy/Coal, and Polish Banks


Hong Kong/China Finally Bottoming?; Bullish Outlook Intact; DXY Rolling Over; Buys in Discretionary

Italy

Prysmian SpA develops, designs, produces, supplies and installs a wide range of cables for applications in the energy and telecommunications industries.

Prysmian SpA (PRY IM)

Impact Of Ukraine Conflict On Lucror’S European Coverage Universe - Lucror Analytics

In this report, we analyse the impact of the Ukraine-Russia conflict on the various sectors and companies in our European coverage universe. We...

Lucror Analytics

Upgrading Europe to Overweight; Supports Holding on MSCI ACWI, ACWI Ex-US, EAFE, and EM

Upgrading Europe to Overweight EURO $STOXX 50 $FEZ; Supports Holding on MSCI $ACWI, $ACWX, $EFA, and $EEM. Latest 4-6% pullback remains healthy...

Vermilion Research

Last Week in Event SPACE: Pasona/Benefit One, Hang Lung Properties, Hollysys, Azure Minerals

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Prysmian/Encore Wire: Agreed Offer

Prysmian SpA to acquire Encore Wire for $290/share in cash, 29% premium to 90-day VWAP, with potential synergies valued at $51/share. Trading...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Hong Kong/China Finally Bottoming?; Bullish Outlook Intact; DXY Rolling Over; Buys in Discretionary

Hong Kong/China Finally Bottoming?; Bullish Overall Outlook Intact; $DXY Rolling Over; Actionable Themes: Hong Kong/China, Consumer Discretionary,...

Vermilion Research

Impact Of Ukraine Conflict On Lucror’S European Coverage Universe - Lucror Analytics

In this report, we analyse the impact of the Ukraine-Russia conflict on the various sectors and companies in our European coverage universe. We...

Lucror Analytics

Upgrading Europe to Overweight; Supports Holding on MSCI ACWI, ACWI Ex-US, EAFE, and EM

Upgrading Europe to Overweight EURO $STOXX 50 $FEZ; Supports Holding on MSCI $ACWI, $ACWX, $EFA, and $EEM. Latest 4-6% pullback remains healthy...

Vermilion Research

Last Week in Event SPACE: Pasona/Benefit One, Hang Lung Properties, Hollysys, Azure Minerals

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Prysmian/Encore Wire: Agreed Offer

​Prysmian SpA to acquire Encore Wire for $290/share in cash, 29% premium to 90-day VWAP, with potential synergies valued at $51/share. Trading...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Hong Kong/China Finally Bottoming?; Bullish Outlook Intact; DXY Rolling Over; Buys in Discretionary

Hong Kong/China Finally Bottoming?; Bullish Overall Outlook Intact; $DXY Rolling Over; Actionable Themes: Hong Kong/China, Consumer Discretionary,...

Vermilion Research

Prysmian SpA to acquire Encore Wire for $290/share in cash, 29% premium to 90-day VWAP, with potential synergies valued at $51/share. Trading...