Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

Shenton Research

Shenton Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analysed the earning revision of component stocks of MS-Indonesia in the past month.</li>
<li>We tabulated stocks with the top impact on index's EPS, stocks' EPS revision, and revenue revision.</li>
<li>We highlighted EPS revision on Barito Pacific, Bukit Asam, Adaro Andalan Indonesia, PT Indofood Sukses Makmur, Bank Central Asia, Merdeka Copper Gold.</li>
</ul>


We analysed the earning revision of component stocks of MS-Indonesia in the past month.
We tabulated stocks with the top impact on index's EPS, stocks' EPS revision, and revenue revision.
We highlighted EPS revision on Barito Pacific, Bukit Asam, Adaro Andalan Indonesia, PT Indofood Sukses Makmur, Bank Central Asia, Merdeka Copper Gold.


MS-Indonesia Index Earning Revision (Sep): Barito Pacific, Bukit Asam, Adaro Andalan Indonesia

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), BRI Danareksa Research

BRI Danareksa Research

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

As a one-stop financial solution with the vision to be the most valuable securities house, BRI Danareksa Sekuritas (BRIDS) has maintained an excellent track record and extensive experience in the capital market as an underwriter, broker, and financial advisor for individual, institutional, foreign and domestic, private and government clients. Established in 1992, PT Danareksa Sekuritas is a securities company that performs activities as a securities broker, underwriter, or arranger and financial advisor.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Investors’ concerns was triggered by MSCI’s announcement that it is conducting a consultation to review a possible change in foreign inclusion factor (FIF) to possibly include KSEI data which would exclude shares held by corporate and “others” from the free-float.</li><li>MSCI has outlined two scenarios under this proposed method, which may effectively result in lower weighting for Indonesian stocks in MSCI EM Index.</li><li>Despite the overhang from MSCI index review, foreign investors flow sustained a positive flow during the week, with US$333mn of inflow, putting Indonesia among the few markets with positive flow for the second consecutive week.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Investors’ concerns was triggered by MSCI’s announcement that it is conducting a consultation to review a possible change in foreign inclusion factor (FIF) to possibly include KSEI data which would exclude shares held by corporate and “others” from the free-float.MSCI has outlined two scenarios under this proposed method, which may effectively result in lower weighting for Indonesian stocks in MSCI EM Index.Despite the overhang from MSCI index review, foreign investors flow sustained a positive flow during the week, with US$333mn of inflow, putting Indonesia among the few markets with positive flow for the second consecutive week.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

BRIDS Market Pulse : Chart of the Week – JCI Market Capitalization

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Foreign flows reversed; Poultry and Metals outperformed. After four consecutive weeks of inflows (US$680mn), foreign equity flows reversed to -US$254mn, partly driven by last week’s street protests, despite signs of deescalation this week.</li><li>Foreign investors have continued to de-risk on largecap banks, namely BBCA (-US$195mn w-w, YTD: US$1.4bn) and BMRI (- US$45mn w-w, YTD: US$814mn).</li><li>Despite this, JCI managed to close +0.5% on the week, supported by metals sectors (ANTM +12% w-w, AMMN +3%, MDKA +6%), and conglomerate groups stocks (+DSSA +7% w-w, EMTK +7%, SMMA). ttractive at 11.9x P/E (-1.5SD to 5-year mean), following underperformance (-14% YTD).</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Foreign flows reversed; Poultry and Metals outperformed. After four consecutive weeks of inflows (US$680mn), foreign equity flows reversed to -US$254mn, partly driven by last week’s street protests, despite signs of deescalation this week.Foreign investors have continued to de-risk on largecap banks, namely BBCA (-US$195mn w-w, YTD: US$1.4bn) and BMRI (- US$45mn w-w, YTD: US$814mn).Despite this, JCI managed to close +0.5% on the week, supported by metals sectors (ANTM +12% w-w, AMMN +3%, MDKA +6%), and conglomerate groups stocks (+DSSA +7% w-w, EMTK +7%, SMMA). ttractive at 11.9x P/E (-1.5SD to 5-year mean), following underperformance (-14% YTD).Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

BRIDS Market Pulse: Chart of the week – Metal sector vs. gold price

<ul><li>JCI finished the week flat (-0.1% w-w), underperforming most of the EM peers.</li><li>Despite positive surprise from 2Q25 GDP numbers, Consumers (-3.7% w-w) and Telco (-0.8%) sectors dragged down the index, offsetting the slight outperformance in Banks(+0.4%), along with correction in large-cap illiquid and conglo stocks (DCII, BRPT, TPIA).</li><li>Foreign funds flow improved to neutral (+US$8mn) compared to outflows in majority of the ASEAN EM peers, with reversal of flows into BBCA and BMRI. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

JCI finished the week flat (-0.1% w-w), underperforming most of the EM peers.Despite positive surprise from 2Q25 GDP numbers, Consumers (-3.7% w-w) and Telco (-0.8%) sectors dragged down the index, offsetting the slight outperformance in Banks(+0.4%), along with correction in large-cap illiquid and conglo stocks (DCII, BRPT, TPIA).Foreign funds flow improved to neutral (+US$8mn) compared to outflows in majority of the ASEAN EM peers, with reversal of flows into BBCA and BMRI. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

BRIDS Market Pulse: Chart of the Week – JCI P/E Band (10-Year)

<ul><li>We expect 2H25 earnings growth to rebound, driven by improved liquidity and prospect of govt spending acceleration.</li><li>We continue to like Telcos and are turning more constructive on banks (stable/ better NIM), while remaining ST cautious on Consumers.</li><li>We raise our JCI target to 7,960, factoring in premium from anticipated flow into conglo-group stocks, despite our lower FY25 EPS growth f’cast.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We expect 2H25 earnings growth to rebound, driven by improved liquidity and prospect of govt spending acceleration.We continue to like Telcos and are turning more constructive on banks (stable/ better NIM), while remaining ST cautious on Consumers.We raise our JCI target to 7,960, factoring in premium from anticipated flow into conglo-group stocks, despite our lower FY25 EPS growth f’cast.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Equity Strategy: 2H25: Positioning for a Growth Rebound

Indonesia

AKR Corporindo is a leading provider of integrated supply chain solutions in Indonesia. The company primarily distributes and trades petroleum and basic chemicals to industrial customers, also offering logistics services like warehousing and transportation. Additionally, it manufactures sorbitol and adhesive materials, and develops integrated industrial and port estates. Headquartered in Jakarta, Indonesia, the company was established in 1977.

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AKR Corporindo (AKRA IJ)

MS-Indonesia Index Earning Revision (Sep): Barito Pacific, Bukit Asam, Adaro Andalan Indonesia

We analyzed MS-Indonesia's consensus for Sep 2026 and highlighted changes of EPS in Barito Pacific (BRPT IJ), Bukit Asam (PTBA IJ), Adaro Andalan...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

BRIDS Market Pulse : Chart of the Week – JCI Market Capitalization

MSCI has outlined two scenarios under this proposed method, which may effectively result in lower weighting for Indonesian stocks in MSCI EM Index.

BRI Danareksa Research

BRIDS Market Pulse: Chart of the week – Metal sector vs. gold price

Foreign investors have continued to de-risk on largecap banks, namely BBCA (-US$195mn w-w, YTD: US$1.4bn) and BMRI (- US$45mn w-w, YTD: US$814mn).

BRI Danareksa Research

BRIDS Market Pulse: Chart of the Week – JCI P/E Band (10-Year)

MSCI’s Aug25 review announced the inclusion of DSSA and CUAN into the index, with exclusion of ADRO (into MSCI Small Cap).

BRI Danareksa Research

Equity Strategy: 2H25: Positioning for a Growth Rebound

We raise our JCI target to 7,960, factoring in premium from anticipated flow into conglo-group stocks, despite our lower FY25 EPS growth f’cast.

BRI Danareksa Research

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