Senior Credit Analyst, Lucror Analytics

Leonard Law, CFA

Senior Credit Analyst

High Yield Experts

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics is a leading credit and ESG research specialist and a provider of technology solutions for differentiated fixed income strategies. Our roots are in bottom-up fundamental credit analysis with a specialization in high yield corporate credits from Europe, Asia and Latin America. We are one of few research specialists integrating ESG considerations with fundamental credit research through a dedicated ESG platform. Our ESG assessment covers five key criteria: Disclosure, E,S, & G Pillars, Controversies, ESG Impact on Credit and ESG Momentum.

Recognizing the importance and value-add of Factor Investing in fixed income, Lucror developed the Smart Quant Navigator (SQN), an intuitive platform that helps clients devise and implement factor-based strategies ranging from pure quant to active fundamental, with integrated ESG.

Our company has been at the forefront of developments in the fixed income markets, identifying opportunities and consistently delivering new products and value-adding solutions to clients. Lucror has close relationships with the largest and most reputable asset managers, family offices, hedge funds, investment and wealth managers globally.

Credit

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.<ul><li><a href='#lucror-entity-2312'>Alam Sutera Realty</a></li><li><a href='#lucror-entity-227'>Guangzhou R&F Properties</a></li></ul>

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.Alam Sutera RealtyGuangzhou R&F Properties

Morning Views Asia: Alam Sutera Realty, Guangzhou R&F Properties

In this month's “In-Focus”, we look at agency ratings for Asian issuers, analysing ratings transitions for all issuers in the Lucror Asia HY index between January 2014 and the present. The Asia Monthly focuses on providing updates on recent events, information on new issues and spread movements, as well as summarising our top picks and discussing specific areas of interest in the “In-Focus” section. The Asia Monthly is intended to broaden investors' understanding of the Asian USD high-yield market.

  In this month's “In-Focus”, we look at agency ratings for Asian issuers, analysing ratings transitions for all issuers in the Lucror Asia HY index between January 2014 and the present.   The Asia Monthly focuses on providing updates on recent events, information on new issues and spread movements, as well as summarising our top picks and discussing specific areas of interest in the “In-Focus” section. The Asia Monthly is intended to broaden investors' understanding of the Asian USD high-yield market.  

Asia HY Monthly - Agency Ratings For Asian Issuers (2019) - Lucror Analytics

The Asia HY Trade Recommendations report for November includes a summary of our recommendations, as well as our high-conviction ideas. We also provide relative-value charts and lists of the bonds in the Lucror Asia HY index.

   The Asia HY Trade Recommendations report for November includes a summary of our recommendations, as well as our high-conviction ideas. We also provide relative-value charts and lists of the bonds in the Lucror Asia HY index. 

Asia HY Trade Recommendations - November 2019 - Lucror Analytics

In this month’s “In-Focus” section, we provide an update on recent events in Indonesia that we believe will have an impact on offshore investor confidence. Among these are negative developments at the governmental level regarding the policing of corruption. We also feature a case study on the recent bond default by Delta Merlin Dunia, which highlights the problems inherent in governance with Indonesian corporates, particularly private firms. We believe that at the regulatory and corporate level there is often a capricious approach to governance, which is encouraged by a benign judicial system. The Asia Monthly focuses on providing updates on recent events, information on new issues and spread movements, as well as summarising our top picks and discussing specific areas of interest in the “In-Focus” section. The Asia Monthly is intended to broaden investors' understanding of the Asian USD high-yield market.

  In this month’s “In-Focus” section, we provide an update on recent events in Indonesia that we believe will have an impact on offshore investor confidence. Among these are negative developments at the governmental level regarding the policing of corruption. We also feature a case study on the recent bond default by Delta Merlin Dunia, which highlights the problems inherent in governance with Indonesian corporates, particularly private firms. We believe that at the regulatory and corporate level there is often a capricious approach to governance, which is encouraged by a benign judicial system.   The Asia Monthly focuses on providing updates on recent events, information on new issues and spread movements, as well as summarising our top picks and discussing specific areas of interest in the “In-Focus” section. The Asia Monthly is intended to broaden investors' understanding of the Asian USD high-yield market. 

Asia HY Monthly - Corporate Governance And Corruption In Indonesia - Lucror Analytics

Trung Nguyen

In our view, Alam Sutera’s 9M/19 results were weak, with materially lower revenues and profit. That said, the soft numbers should not have come as a surprise, given the company's weak marketing sales. The financial risk profile has weakened, with high leverage and low coverage ratios. Positively, Alam Sutera is still generating decent free cash flow and has a large cash balance. We expect the weak performance to persist in the near term, resulting in ongoing rating pressure. The key risk is the refinancing risk of the USD 175 mn 2021 Notes, which will mature in c. 1.5 years, followed closely by the USD 370 mn 2022 Notes. Credit support mainly stem's from Alam Sutera’s large and clean land bank, which was acquired at low prices before the real estate boom. Thus, capex for land development/acquisition should be limited going forward. In addition, the company can sell land in block transactions, as it has previously done with China Fortune Land Development.

  In our view, Alam Sutera’s 9M/19 results were weak, with materially lower revenues and profit. That said, the soft numbers should not have come as a surprise, given the company's weak marketing sales. The financial risk profile has weakened, with high leverage and low coverage ratios. Positively, Alam Sutera is still generating decent free cash flow and has a large cash balance. We expect the weak performance to persist in the near term, resulting in ongoing rating pressure.   The key risk is the refinancing risk of the USD 175 mn 2021 Notes, which will mature in c. 1.5 years, followed closely by the USD 370 mn 2022 Notes. Credit support mainly stem's from Alam Sutera’s large and clean land bank, which was acquired at low prices before the real estate boom. Thus, capex for land development/acquisition should be limited going forward. In addition, the company can sell land in block transactions, as it has previously done with China Fortune Land Development. 

Alam Sutera - Earnings Flash - 9M FY 2019 Results - Lucror Analytics

Indonesia

Alam Sutera Realty Tbk is an Indonesia-based integrated property developer focused on residential, commercial, and mixed-use developments, including shopping centers, recreational areas, and hotels. The company's core activities involve the construction and management of these properties, with significant projects in areas like Serpong and Tangerang. It was founded in 1993 and is headquartered in Jakarta, Indonesia.

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Alam Sutera Realty (ASRI IJ)

Morning Views Asia: Alam Sutera Realty, Guangzhou R&F Properties

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region,...

Lucror Analytics

Asia HY Monthly - Agency Ratings For Asian Issuers (2019) - Lucror Analytics

In this month's “In-Focus”, we look at agency ratings for Asian issuers, analysing ratings transitions for all issuers in the Lucror Asia HY index...

Lucror Analytics

Asia HY Trade Recommendations - November 2019 - Lucror Analytics

The Asia HY Trade Recommendations report for November includes a summary of our recommendations, as well as our high-conviction ideas. We also...

Lucror Analytics

Asia HY Monthly - Corporate Governance And Corruption In Indonesia - Lucror Analytics

In this month’s “In-Focus” section, we provide an update on recent events in Indonesia that we believe will have an impact on offshore investor...

Lucror Analytics

Alam Sutera - Earnings Flash - 9M FY 2019 Results - Lucror Analytics

In our view, Alam Sutera’s 9M/19 results were weak, with materially lower revenues and profit. That said, the soft numbers should not have come as...

Lucror Analytics

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