Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas, CrossASEAN Research

Henry Soediarko

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Indonesia's status as an emerging market is up for review due to various market anomalies, including a small free float, which rattled the market. </li>
<li>While active flows are quite sizeable, the real issue came from the passive flows, as there is no way to navigate around this. </li>
<li>Indonesia's prospect hinges on 1) the decision to increase free float to meet MSCI requirements and 2) whether the tycoons are willing to sell their stakes to raise free float. </li>
</ul>


Indonesia's status as an emerging market is up for review due to various market anomalies, including a small free float, which rattled the market. 
While active flows are quite sizeable, the real issue came from the passive flows, as there is no way to navigate around this. 
Indonesia's prospect hinges on 1) the decision to increase free float to meet MSCI requirements and 2) whether the tycoons are willing to sell their stakes to raise free float. 


Global Materials | Industrials | Commodities

Rahul Jain

Commodities

<ul>
<li>MVGDX concentrates in North America and silver duration, shrinking Asia to ~3% based on liquidity and replication discipline.</li>
<li>AMMN breaches gold-purity retention thresholds, signalling likely removal in 2026 and passive outflows.</li>
<li>BRMS remains the only credible Indonesian gold-pure substitute; Zijin inclusion unlikely before Q3-2027 due to float constraints.</li>
</ul>


MVGDX concentrates in North America and silver duration, shrinking Asia to ~3% based on liquidity and replication discipline.
AMMN breaches gold-purity retention thresholds, signalling likely removal in 2026 and passive outflows.
BRMS remains the only credible Indonesian gold-pure substitute; Zijin inclusion unlikely before Q3-2027 due to float constraints.


Asia Gold Mining 2026–27: Pricing the AMMN Exit & The BRMS Proxy Pivot

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), BRI Danareksa Research

BRI Danareksa Research

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

As a one-stop financial solution with the vision to be the most valuable securities house, BRI Danareksa Sekuritas (BRIDS) has maintained an excellent track record and extensive experience in the capital market as an underwriter, broker, and financial advisor for individual, institutional, foreign and domestic, private and government clients. Established in 1992, PT Danareksa Sekuritas is a securities company that performs activities as a securities broker, underwriter, or arranger and financial advisor.

<ul>
<li>JCI closed slightly up (+0.3% w-w) despite correcting from all-time high level during the week.</li>
<li>In terms of performance, however, the market was mainly driven by the conglo names (BUMI +54.6% w-w, BRMS +25.5%, DSSA), while the fundamental stocks underperformed (BBCA -3.6% w-w, TLKM -4.1%, BMRI -1.6%).</li>
<li>Within our coverage universe, the Metal sector has regained leadership (+9.5% w-w), following recovery in gold price, followed by Media (+6.2% w-w, led by SCMA) and Tech (+2.0% w-w, led by GOTO); Industrial Estate, Heavy Equipment and Cigarettes underperformed.</li>
</ul>
<p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>


JCI closed slightly up (+0.3% w-w) despite correcting from all-time high level during the week.
In terms of performance, however, the market was mainly driven by the conglo names (BUMI +54.6% w-w, BRMS +25.5%, DSSA), while the fundamental stocks underperformed (BBCA -3.6% w-w, TLKM -4.1%, BMRI -1.6%).
Within our coverage universe, the Metal sector has regained leadership (+9.5% w-w), following recovery in gold price, followed by Media (+6.2% w-w, led by SCMA) and Tech (+2.0% w-w, led by GOTO); Industrial Estate, Heavy Equipment and Cigarettes underperformed.

Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

BRIDS Market Pulse: Chart of the week – JCI vs. LQ45 Forward P/E Band

<ul>
<li>US$418m of passive inflows set to enter Indonesia as Amman (AMMN) and Bumi (BRMS) join MVGDX.</li>
<li>Amman’s inclusion may prove temporary as copper smelter mandates tilt revenues away from gold.</li>
<li>Archi (ARCI) emerges as a future candidate, while Merdeka (MDKA) fails the gold dependency test.</li>
</ul>


US$418m of passive inflows set to enter Indonesia as Amman (AMMN) and Bumi (BRMS) join MVGDX.
Amman’s inclusion may prove temporary as copper smelter mandates tilt revenues away from gold.
Archi (ARCI) emerges as a future candidate, while Merdeka (MDKA) fails the gold dependency test.


Indonesia Joins MVGDX: US$418m Passive Flows, but Amman’s Inclusion Looks Fragile

<ul>
<li>Copper treatment and refining charges have collapsed from ~$80/ton in 2023 to around –$40/ton by mid-2025, meaning smelters are effectively paying to process concentrate.</li>
<li>Smelter Cutbacks: Persistent margin losses have triggered curtailments and shutdowns across major smelters in China, Japan, and Southeast Asia, removing an estimated 1.3–1.5 Mtpa of refined capacity.</li>
<li>With refined supply under strain, low exchange stocks, and surging Asian premiums, the market risks flipping into a structural deficit—setting the stage for further upside in copper prices into 2026.</li>
</ul>


Copper treatment and refining charges have collapsed from ~$80/ton in 2023 to around –$40/ton by mid-2025, meaning smelters are effectively paying to process concentrate.
Smelter Cutbacks: Persistent margin losses have triggered curtailments and shutdowns across major smelters in China, Japan, and Southeast Asia, removing an estimated 1.3–1.5 Mtpa of refined capacity.
With refined supply under strain, low exchange stocks, and surging Asian premiums, the market risks flipping into a structural deficit—setting the stage for further upside in copper prices into 2026.


Copper Market Stress Test: TC/RC Collapse and Its Implications for Miners, Smelters, and Prices

Indonesia

Amman Mineral Internasional is an Indonesia-based holding company engaged in copper and gold mining, processing, smelting, and refining operations. It operates the Batu Hijau mine and develops the Elang project, producing high-grade copper concentrate enriched with gold and silver. The company is headquartered in South Jakarta, Indonesia, and was founded in 1990.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Amman Mineral Internasional (AMMN IJ)

Indo Downgrade: Run Away or Buy?

Indonesia's emerging market status under review due to market anomalies, a focus on increasing free float, and tycoons selling stakes to raise...

Henry Soediarko

Asia Gold Mining 2026–27: Pricing the AMMN Exit & The BRMS Proxy Pivot

MVGDX focuses on North America, AMMN faces removal in 2026, BRMS is top Indonesian gold substitute with Zijin inclusion unlikely before Q3-2027.

Rahul Jain

BRIDS Market Pulse: Chart of the week – JCI vs. LQ45 Forward P/E Band

In terms of performance, however, the market was mainly driven by the conglo names (BUMI +54.6% w-w, BRMS +25.5%, DSSA), while the fundamental...

BRI Danareksa Research

Indonesia Joins MVGDX: US$418m Passive Flows, but Amman’s Inclusion Looks Fragile

Indonesia set to receive US$418m in passive inflows as Amman and Bumi join MVGDX, with Archi emerging as a future candidate for inclusion.

Rahul Jain

Copper Market Stress Test: TC/RC Collapse and Its Implications for Miners, Smelters, and Prices

Copper smelters facing losses lead to cutbacks and shutdowns, risking supply shortage and potential price increase in 2026.

Rahul Jain

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Indo Downgrade: Run Away or Buy?

​Indonesia's emerging market status under review due to market anomalies, a focus on increasing free float, and tycoons selling stakes to raise...

Henry Soediarko

Asia Gold Mining 2026–27: Pricing the AMMN Exit & The BRMS Proxy Pivot

​MVGDX focuses on North America, AMMN faces removal in 2026, BRMS is top Indonesian gold substitute with Zijin inclusion unlikely before Q3-2027.

Rahul Jain

BRIDS Market Pulse: Chart of the week – JCI vs. LQ45 Forward P/E Band

In terms of performance, however, the market was mainly driven by the conglo names (BUMI +54.6% w-w, BRMS +25.5%, DSSA), while the fundamental...

BRI Danareksa Research

Indonesia Joins MVGDX: US$418m Passive Flows, but Amman’s Inclusion Looks Fragile

​Indonesia set to receive US$418m in passive inflows as Amman and Bumi join MVGDX, with Archi emerging as a future candidate for inclusion.

Rahul Jain

Copper Market Stress Test: TC/RC Collapse and Its Implications for Miners, Smelters, and Prices

​Copper smelters facing losses lead to cutbacks and shutdowns, risking supply shortage and potential price increase in 2026.

Rahul Jain

Indonesia's emerging market status under review due to market anomalies, a focus on increasing free float, and tycoons selling stakes to raise...

MVGDX focuses on North America, AMMN faces removal in 2026, BRMS is top Indonesian gold substitute with Zijin inclusion unlikely before Q3-2027.

Indonesia set to receive US$418m in passive inflows as Amman and Bumi join MVGDX, with Archi emerging as a future candidate for inclusion.

Copper smelters facing losses lead to cutbacks and shutdowns, risking supply shortage and potential price increase in 2026.