Indonesian Equities | Buy-Side Investment Research

Defriansyah Has

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
Bottom line: BBNI is the only one of Indonesia’s four largest banks below book value (0.76x versus BMRI 1.34x, BBRI 1.48x, BBCA 2.76x); we rate it BULLISH, moderate-to-low conviction.</li>
<li>
 What the price implies: at Rp3,430, a perpetual ROE of about 9.9% — below FY2025 normalized ROE of 12.89% and the 1H26 run-rate of roughly 12.7%–12.9%.</li>
<li>
 Why conviction is low: funding, margin and capital pressure has not been shown to stop; scenarios are model assumptions, not forecasts, and do not show earning power has stabilized.</li>
</ul>



Bottom line: BBNI is the only one of Indonesia’s four largest banks below book value (0.76x versus BMRI 1.34x, BBRI 1.48x, BBCA 2.76x); we rate it BULLISH, moderate-to-low conviction.

 What the price implies: at Rp3,430, a perpetual ROE of about 9.9% — below FY2025 normalized ROE of 12.89% and the 1H26 run-rate of roughly 12.7%–12.9%.

 Why conviction is low: funding, margin and capital pressure has not been shown to stop; scenarios are model assumptions, not forecasts, and do not show earning power has stabilized.


BBNI IJ: When Credit Growth Outruns Earning Power

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>Following a market consultation, Indonesia could see its weight slashed in a global index and that will lead to passive selling in May.</li>
<li>Depending on the approach taken to computing free float, outflows could be in the range of US$925m and US$2.2bn.</li>
<li>The change in free float methodology could also lead to a few stocks being deleted from the index due to low free float market cap.</li>
</ul>


Following a market consultation, Indonesia could see its weight slashed in a global index and that will lead to passive selling in May.
Depending on the approach taken to computing free float, outflows could be in the range of US$925m and US$2.2bn.
The change in free float methodology could also lead to a few stocks being deleted from the index due to low free float market cap.


Global Index: Indonesia Likely to See Huge Outflows in May

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>The ASEAN overweight rests on Indonesia and non-benchmark Singapore/Vietnam, offset by Malaysia’s structural underweight. Recent flows show pressure on Indonesia and Malaysia, with Singapore and Thailand benefiting.</li>
<li>Indonesian Financials dominate ASEAN exposure but are losing momentum; fresh inflows support Singapore Discretionary and Technology, plus Thailand Communication Services and Staples.</li>
<li>Stock trends highlight fading Indonesian banks, while new highs come from ICTSI, Grab, GoTo, and Singtel, signalling a potential shift in leadership.</li>
</ul>


The ASEAN overweight rests on Indonesia and non-benchmark Singapore/Vietnam, offset by Malaysia’s structural underweight. Recent flows show pressure on Indonesia and Malaysia, with Singapore and Thailand benefiting.
Indonesian Financials dominate ASEAN exposure but are losing momentum; fresh inflows support Singapore Discretionary and Technology, plus Thailand Communication Services and Staples.
Stock trends highlight fading Indonesian banks, while new highs come from ICTSI, Grab, GoTo, and Singtel, signalling a potential shift in leadership.


ASEAN Rotation: Indonesia Weakens, Singapore Gains, Thailand Stabilises

ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

<ul>
<li>The Indonesian stock market was down 2% over the last year despite a flurry of inflows in the summer but this year looks interesting with a new government in place. </li>
<li>GDP growth forecasts are more optimistic for 2025 and government stimulus should help to drive higher consumption, with FDI driven by more value-added investments in the EV-related projects. </li>
<li>Increasing digitalisation of the economy and greater use of AI will drive profitability and data centre growth. Interest rates are expected to fall -50-100bps which should also be supportive.</li>
</ul>


The Indonesian stock market was down 2% over the last year despite a flurry of inflows in the summer but this year looks interesting with a new government in place. 
GDP growth forecasts are more optimistic for 2025 and government stimulus should help to drive higher consumption, with FDI driven by more value-added investments in the EV-related projects. 
Increasing digitalisation of the economy and greater use of AI will drive profitability and data centre growth. Interest rates are expected to fall -50-100bps which should also be supportive.


CrossASEAN Indonesia Strategy - Parting Clouds

<ul>
<li>Indonesia has been the recipient of significant investment flows for foreign investors with more of a "risk on" environment with a large portion flowing into Indonesian banks. </li>
<li>Indonesia stacks up from an investment perspective with a stable political environment, solid GDP growth of around 5% YoY, rising flows of FDI, and a more stable IDR.</li>
<li>Despite the JCI knocking on all-time highs, valuations continue to look attractive with prospects of a better 2H2024 and lower interest rates. Top picks: Banks, property, consumer, and selective elsewhere. </li>
</ul>


Indonesia has been the recipient of significant investment flows for foreign investors with more of a "risk on" environment with a large portion flowing into Indonesian banks. 
Indonesia stacks up from an investment perspective with a stable political environment, solid GDP growth of around 5% YoY, rising flows of FDI, and a more stable IDR.
Despite the JCI knocking on all-time highs, valuations continue to look attractive with prospects of a better 2H2024 and lower interest rates. Top picks: Banks, property, consumer, and selective elsewhere. 


Indonesia Strategy - Caught in a Perfect Updraft?

Indonesia

Bank Negara Indonesia (BNI) is an Indonesian state-owned bank providing a comprehensive range of commercial and consumer banking products and services. These include savings, loans, credit cards, wealth management, trade finance, and digital banking solutions. Established on July 5, 1946, it is headquartered in Jakarta, Indonesia.

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Bank Negara Indonesia (BBNI IJ)

BBNI IJ: When Credit Growth Outruns Earning Power

BNI is Indonesia's cheapest major bank at 0.76x book. The market implies 9.9% perpetual ROE, below its 12.7%–12.9% 1H26 run-rate. We take a...

Defriansyah Has

Global Index: Indonesia Likely to See Huge Outflows in May

This is going be a huge theme today for Indonesia. The price movements of a lot of stocks have raised issues in the past with global index...

Brian Freitas

ASEAN Rotation: Indonesia Weakens, Singapore Gains, Thailand Stabilises

ASEAN positioning shifts as Indonesia loses ground and Malaysia stays weak. Singapore and Thailand attract inflows, while new leaders like ICTSI...

Steven Holden

CrossASEAN Indonesia Strategy - Parting Clouds

The Indonesian stock market was down 2% over the last year despite a flurry of inflows in the summer but this year looks interesting with a new...

Angus Mackintosh

Indonesia Strategy - Caught in a Perfect Updraft?

Despite the JCI knocking on all-time highs, valuations continue to look attractive with prospects of a better 2H2024 and lower interest rates. Top...

Angus Mackintosh

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