External broker reports(aggregated public sources), BRI Danareksa Research

BRI Danareksa Research

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

As a one-stop financial solution with the vision to be the most valuable securities house, BRI Danareksa Sekuritas (BRIDS) has maintained an excellent track record and extensive experience in the capital market as an underwriter, broker, and financial advisor for individual, institutional, foreign and domestic, private and government clients. Established in 1992, PT Danareksa Sekuritas is a securities company that performs activities as a securities broker, underwriter, or arranger and financial advisor.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Investment loans continue to be the backbone of growth and asset quality, while deteriorating consumer asset quality persisted in 1H25.</li><li>We observed worsening asset quality across all types of consumer loans, with middle-income mortgage facing the biggest deterioration.</li><li>We maintain Neutral view on the banking sector amid the valuation derating due to asset quality risk and lack of ST catalyst.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Investment loans continue to be the backbone of growth and asset quality, while deteriorating consumer asset quality persisted in 1H25.We observed worsening asset quality across all types of consumer loans, with middle-income mortgage facing the biggest deterioration.We maintain Neutral view on the banking sector amid the valuation derating due to asset quality risk and lack of ST catalyst.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>We estimate minimal impact on CoF (1-3bps) and earnings (0.4-1.5%) on SOE banks after raising their USD TD rates to 4%.</li><li>We see downside risks from deposit dollarization and weaker Rupiah, although the plan could also benefit domestic liquidity and economy.</li><li>Amid the bottoming liquidity, we retain Neutral rating on the sector with BBCA as our LT stock pick as we remain cautious on asset quality.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We estimate minimal impact on CoF (1-3bps) and earnings (0.4-1.5%) on SOE banks after raising their USD TD rates to 4%.We see downside risks from deposit dollarization and weaker Rupiah, although the plan could also benefit domestic liquidity and economy.Amid the bottoming liquidity, we retain Neutral rating on the sector with BBCA as our LT stock pick as we remain cautious on asset quality.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

<ul><li>The Rp200tr state funds placed in selected banks could potentially lower CoF by 1-16bps, if no loan growth target is required.</li><li>Otherwise, we see potential downside in NIM and asset quality, especially if economic growth remains stagnant post the stimulus.</li><li>Amid the bottoming liquidity, we retain Neutral rating on the sector with BBCA as our LT stock pick as we remain cautious on asset quality.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The Rp200tr state funds placed in selected banks could potentially lower CoF by 1-16bps, if no loan growth target is required.Otherwise, we see potential downside in NIM and asset quality, especially if economic growth remains stagnant post the stimulus.Amid the bottoming liquidity, we retain Neutral rating on the sector with BBCA as our LT stock pick as we remain cautious on asset quality.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Banks: Liquidity Support, Asset Quality Risk: A Double-Edged Sword (NEUTRAL)

<ul><li>JCI rallied by a strong 4.8% w-w and was the top performer among the EM markets last week.</li><li>The index’s performance was driven by a combination of large-cap ‘fundamental’ stocks (i.e., BBRI +11% w-w, TLKM 13%, BBCA +5%, BMRI +4%) and illiquid and conglo stocks (DCII, DSSA).</li><li>Market’s rally was also driven by the strong return in foreign investors’ flow which amounted to US$412mn, which put Indonesia among the only market with positive flow among the Asian EMs, with notable inflows into large-cap banks and TLKM. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

JCI rallied by a strong 4.8% w-w and was the top performer among the EM markets last week.The index’s performance was driven by a combination of large-cap ‘fundamental’ stocks (i.e., BBRI +11% w-w, TLKM 13%, BBCA +5%, BMRI +4%) and illiquid and conglo stocks (DCII, DSSA).Market’s rally was also driven by the strong return in foreign investors’ flow which amounted to US$412mn, which put Indonesia among the only market with positive flow among the Asian EMs, with notable inflows into large-cap banks and TLKM. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

BRIDS Market Pulse: Chart of the Week – Banking Sector’s P/BV Band Chart (5-Year)

<ul><li>We expect 2H25 earnings growth to rebound, driven by improved liquidity and prospect of govt spending acceleration.</li><li>We continue to like Telcos and are turning more constructive on banks (stable/ better NIM), while remaining ST cautious on Consumers.</li><li>We raise our JCI target to 7,960, factoring in premium from anticipated flow into conglo-group stocks, despite our lower FY25 EPS growth f’cast.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We expect 2H25 earnings growth to rebound, driven by improved liquidity and prospect of govt spending acceleration.We continue to like Telcos and are turning more constructive on banks (stable/ better NIM), while remaining ST cautious on Consumers.We raise our JCI target to 7,960, factoring in premium from anticipated flow into conglo-group stocks, despite our lower FY25 EPS growth f’cast.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Equity Strategy: 2H25: Positioning for a Growth Rebound

Indonesia

Bank Negara Indonesia (BNI) is an Indonesian state-owned bank providing a comprehensive range of commercial and consumer banking products and services. These include savings, loans, credit cards, wealth management, trade finance, and digital banking solutions. Established on July 5, 1946, it is headquartered in Jakarta, Indonesia.

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Bank Negara Indonesia (BBNI IJ)

Banks: Middle Income Trapped (NEUTRAL)

Investment loans continue to be the backbone of growth and asset quality, while deteriorating consumer asset quality persisted in 1H25.

BRI Danareksa Research

Banks: USD Deposits and IDR Liquidity...

Amid the bottoming liquidity, we retain Neutral rating on the sector with BBCA as our LT stock pick as we remain cautious on asset quality.

BRI Danareksa Research

Banks: Liquidity Support, Asset Quality Risk: A Double-Edged Sword (NEUTRAL)

Amid the bottoming liquidity, we retain Neutral rating on the sector with BBCA as our LT stock pick as we remain cautious on asset quality.

BRI Danareksa Research

BRIDS Market Pulse: Chart of the Week – Banking Sector’s P/BV Band Chart (5-Year)

The index’s performance was driven by a combination of large-cap ‘fundamental’ stocks (i.e., BBRI +11% w-w, TLKM 13%, BBCA +5%, BMRI +4%) and...

BRI Danareksa Research

Equity Strategy: 2H25: Positioning for a Growth Rebound

We raise our JCI target to 7,960, factoring in premium from anticipated flow into conglo-group stocks, despite our lower FY25 EPS growth f’cast.

BRI Danareksa Research

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