Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

Bumi Resources Minerals / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The review period for the LQ45 Index ended on 30 December. The changes should be announced in the last week of January, becoming effective after the close on 31 January.</li>
<li>Potential adds are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bumi-resources-minerals-tbk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9136:1" rel="noopener">Bumi Resources Minerals Tbk (BRMS IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/surya-esa-perkasa-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14326:1" rel="noopener">Surya Esa Perkasa (ESSA IJ)</a>,<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/saratoga-investama-sedaya-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13714:1" rel="noopener"> Saratoga Investama Sedaya (SRTG IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/adaro-minerals" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35927:1" rel="noopener">Adaro Minerals (ADMR IJ)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pt-dayamitra-telekomunikasi" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34741:1" rel="noopener">Mitratel (MTEL IJ)</a>. </li>
<li>Potential deletions are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wijaya-karya-persero-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1877:1" rel="noopener">PT Wijaya Karya (Persero) Tbk (WIKA IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/erajaya-swasembada-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18869:1" rel="noopener">Erajaya Swasembada (ERAA IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/media-nusantara-citra-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6881:1" rel="noopener">Media Nusantara Citra (MNCN IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chandra-asri-petrochemical" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2556:1" rel="noopener">Chandra Asri Petrochemical (TPIA IJ)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hm-sampoerna-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:617:1" rel="noopener">HM Sampoerna (HMSP IJ)</a>. </li>
</ul>


The review period for the LQ45 Index ended on 30 December. The changes should be announced in the last week of January, becoming effective after the close on 31 January.
Potential adds are Bumi Resources Minerals Tbk (BRMS IJ), Surya Esa Perkasa (ESSA IJ), Saratoga Investama Sedaya (SRTG IJ), Adaro Minerals (ADMR IJ) and Mitratel (MTEL IJ). 
Potential deletions are PT Wijaya Karya (Persero) Tbk (WIKA IJ), Erajaya Swasembada (ERAA IJ), Media Nusantara Citra (MNCN IJ), Chandra Asri Petrochemical (TPIA IJ) and HM Sampoerna (HMSP IJ). 


LQ45 Index Rebalance Preview (Jan): Few Weeks to Implementation

<ul>
<li>The review period for the LQ45 Index ends on 30 June. The changes should be announced in the last week of July, becoming effective after the close on 29 July.</li>
<li>Potential adds are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-jago-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31094:1" rel="noopener">Bank Jago Tbk PT (ARTO IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/adaro-minerals" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35927:1" rel="noopener">Adaro Minerals (ADMR IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bumi-resources-minerals-tbk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9136:1" rel="noopener">Bumi Resources Minerals Tbk (BRMS IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/transcoal-pacific-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28449:1" rel="noopener">Transcoal Pacific Tbk PT (TCPI IJ)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pt-dayamitra-telekomunikasi" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34741:1" rel="noopener">Mitratel (MTEL IJ)</a>.</li>
<li>Potential deletions are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pembangunan-perumahan-persero-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19840:1" rel="noopener">Pembangunan Perumahan (Persero) (PTPP IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pabrik-kertas-tjiwi-kimia-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19184:1" rel="noopener">Pabrik Kertas Tjiwi Kimia (TKIM IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/media-nusantara-citra-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6881:1" rel="noopener">Media Nusantara Citra (MNCN IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gudang-garam-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:722:1" rel="noopener">Gudang Garam (GGRM IJ)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chandra-asri-petrochemical" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2556:1" rel="noopener">Chandra Asri Petrochemical (TPIA IJ)</a>.</li>
</ul>


The review period for the LQ45 Index ends on 30 June. The changes should be announced in the last week of July, becoming effective after the close on 29 July.
Potential adds are Bank Jago Tbk PT (ARTO IJ), Adaro Minerals (ADMR IJ), Bumi Resources Minerals Tbk (BRMS IJ), Transcoal Pacific Tbk PT (TCPI IJ) and Mitratel (MTEL IJ).
Potential deletions are Pembangunan Perumahan (Persero) (PTPP IJ), Pabrik Kertas Tjiwi Kimia (TKIM IJ), Media Nusantara Citra (MNCN IJ), Gudang Garam (GGRM IJ) and Chandra Asri Petrochemical (TPIA IJ).


LQ45 Index Rebalance Preview (July 2022): Candidates for Change

ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Private Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>The recent <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/allo-bank-indonesia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33551:1" rel="noopener">Allo Bank Indonesia Tbk PT (BBHI IJ)</a> transaction exemplifies the rush to build digital banking capabilities in Indonesia with strong shareholder ecosystem now in place</li>
<li>Mainstream banks are not standing still on digital banking capabilities building internal capabilities and in some cases standalone digital banks presenting tough competition for newcomers.</li>
<li>From a consumer digital banking perspective we see blu, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-jago-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31094:1" rel="noopener">Bank Jago (ARTO IJ)</a> , SeaBank, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/allo-bank-indonesia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33551:1" rel="noopener">Allo Bank (BBHI IJ)</a> as having the greatest chance of success.</li>
</ul>


The recent Allo Bank Indonesia Tbk PT (BBHI IJ) transaction exemplifies the rush to build digital banking capabilities in Indonesia with strong shareholder ecosystem now in place
Mainstream banks are not standing still on digital banking capabilities building internal capabilities and in some cases standalone digital banks presenting tough competition for newcomers.
From a consumer digital banking perspective we see blu, Bank Jago (ARTO IJ) , SeaBank, and Allo Bank (BBHI IJ) as having the greatest chance of success.


CrossASEAN Digital - All Rise Indonesia's Digital Banks

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bukalapak" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33575:1" rel="noopener">Bukalapak (BUKA IJ)</a> has announced that it will participate in the upcoming rights issue of new digital bank <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/allo-bank-indonesia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33551:1" rel="noopener">Allo Bank</a>, its first direct investment in a financial services company.</li>
<li>This move will help to enhance the company's financial services offering to its 10.4m plus Mitras and sellers in the platform helping to increase stickiness and improve take-rates.</li>
<li>We expect positive momentum going forward as some of its new focus areas pick up the pace and valuations look attractive from an EV/gross sales perspective given its growth prospects. </li>
</ul>



Bukalapak (BUKA IJ) has announced that it will participate in the upcoming rights issue of new digital bank Allo Bank, its first direct investment in a financial services company.
This move will help to enhance the company's financial services offering to its 10.4m plus Mitras and sellers in the platform helping to increase stickiness and improve take-rates.
We expect positive momentum going forward as some of its new focus areas pick up the pace and valuations look attractive from an EV/gross sales perspective given its growth prospects. 


Bukalapak (BUKA IJ) - Enhancing Financial Offerings

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-central-asia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:440:1" rel="noopener">Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ)</a> released a solid set of 1H2021 results, which underlined its resilience in the face of COVID-19 but a real stand out from the numbers were the ongoing successes from its digital strategies both in terms of promoting products through online expos, as well as the continuing growth in both of transactional and digital banking franchises. 
<a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/BBCA:IJ" target="_blank" rel="noopener">PT Bank Central Asia</a> recently announced that it will invest US$200m into its digital arm to fend off competition from new entrants to digital banking.
The bank will use the fresh funds to help Blu to increase market share ahead of an IPO within the next two years. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-central-asia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:440:1" rel="noopener">Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ)</a> plans to increase Blu’s capital to IDR4tn (US$278m), from around IDR1tn currently.
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-central-asia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:440:1" rel="noopener">Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ)</a> will focus on winning more merchants, partners, and customers for Blu and intends to maintain a majority stake in the entity after listing.
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-central-asia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:440:1" rel="noopener">Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ)</a> is already well ahead of its peers and any digital player on mobile banking and is Indonesia's leading bank in terms of transactional banking.
The bank saw 54% of all transactions by value and 86% of transactions by volume going through mobile or internet banking in 1H2021. This gives it access to high levels of CASA, providing the bank with a very low cost of funds.
Our view is that new digital players are more likely to take market share from smaller banks rather than <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-central-asia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:440:1" rel="noopener">Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ)</a> and see the bank maintaining its lead in transactional banking in Indonesia. Blu also has the advantage of being backed by a well-known and trusted lender, which will help to attract new customers. 
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-central-asia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:440:1" rel="noopener">Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ)</a> trades on 4x FY21E PBV and is forecast to generate an ROE of 15.5% for FY21E and 17.0% in FY22E. It is one of the best-managed banks in Indonesia with a very strong risk management culture combined with a dynamic and innovative management culture, which coupled with its lead in transactional banking, allows the bank to command a significant premium over its peers.

Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ) released a solid set of 1H2021 results, which underlined its resilience in the face of COVID-19 but a real stand out from the numbers were the ongoing successes from its digital strategies both in terms of promoting products through online expos, as well as the continuing growth in both of transactional and digital banking franchises. 
PT Bank Central Asia recently announced that it will invest US$200m into its digital arm to fend off competition from new entrants to digital banking.
The bank will use the fresh funds to help Blu to increase market share ahead of an IPO within the next two years. Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ) plans to increase Blu’s capital to IDR4tn (US$278m), from around IDR1tn currently.
Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ) will focus on winning more merchants, partners, and customers for Blu and intends to maintain a majority stake in the entity after listing.
Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ) is already well ahead of its peers and any digital player on mobile banking and is Indonesia's leading bank in terms of transactional banking.
The bank saw 54% of all transactions by value and 86% of transactions by volume going through mobile or internet banking in 1H2021. This gives it access to high levels of CASA, providing the bank with a very low cost of funds.
Our view is that new digital players are more likely to take market share from smaller banks rather than Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ) and see the bank maintaining its lead in transactional banking in Indonesia. Blu also has the advantage of being backed by a well-known and trusted lender, which will help to attract new customers. 
Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ) trades on 4x FY21E PBV and is forecast to generate an ROE of 15.5% for FY21E and 17.0% in FY22E. It is one of the best-managed banks in Indonesia with a very strong risk management culture combined with a dynamic and innovative management culture, which coupled with its lead in transactional banking, allows the bank to command a significant premium over its peers. 

PT Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ) - The Future Is Blu

Indonesia

PT Bank Neo Commerce Tbk is an Indonesia-based commercial bank that offers a comprehensive range of digital banking products and services. Its offerings include various savings accounts, loan products for individuals and SMEs, wealth management, cash management systems, and payment services, all primarily accessed through its mobile banking app. The company is headquartered in Jakarta, Indonesia, and was established in 1989.

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Bank Neo Commerce (BBYB IJ)

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