Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas, CrossASEAN Research

Henry Soediarko

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/msci-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17865:1" rel="noopener">MSCI Inc (MSCI US)</a> downgrade momentum on Indonesia has hit a pause, and it is unlikely to happen. </li>
<li>In the meantime, the earnings growth rate for mid- and large-cap stocks remains intact; hence, that makes some of the Indonesian stocks even cheaper from a PEG perspective. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pt-bank-rakyat-indonesia-persero-tbk-class-b" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:484:1" rel="noopener">Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI IJ)</a> pays 11% yield, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pt-telkom-indonesia-persero-tbk-class-b" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1051:1" rel="noopener">Telkom Indonesia (TLKM IJ)</a>has an asset spin off awaiting, while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pt-astra-international-tbk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:46:1" rel="noopener">Astra International (ASII IJ)</a> is trading at 6x PER with 8% dividend.</li>
</ul>



MSCI Inc (MSCI US) downgrade momentum on Indonesia has hit a pause, and it is unlikely to happen. 
In the meantime, the earnings growth rate for mid- and large-cap stocks remains intact; hence, that makes some of the Indonesian stocks even cheaper from a PEG perspective. 

Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI IJ) pays 11% yield, Telkom Indonesia (TLKM IJ)has an asset spin off awaiting, while Astra International (ASII IJ) is trading at 6x PER with 8% dividend.


Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>The ASEAN overweight rests on Indonesia and non-benchmark Singapore/Vietnam, offset by Malaysia’s structural underweight. Recent flows show pressure on Indonesia and Malaysia, with Singapore and Thailand benefiting.</li>
<li>Indonesian Financials dominate ASEAN exposure but are losing momentum; fresh inflows support Singapore Discretionary and Technology, plus Thailand Communication Services and Staples.</li>
<li>Stock trends highlight fading Indonesian banks, while new highs come from ICTSI, Grab, GoTo, and Singtel, signalling a potential shift in leadership.</li>
</ul>


The ASEAN overweight rests on Indonesia and non-benchmark Singapore/Vietnam, offset by Malaysia’s structural underweight. Recent flows show pressure on Indonesia and Malaysia, with Singapore and Thailand benefiting.
Indonesian Financials dominate ASEAN exposure but are losing momentum; fresh inflows support Singapore Discretionary and Technology, plus Thailand Communication Services and Staples.
Stock trends highlight fading Indonesian banks, while new highs come from ICTSI, Grab, GoTo, and Singtel, signalling a potential shift in leadership.


ASEAN Rotation: Indonesia Weakens, Singapore Gains, Thailand Stabilises

ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-rakyat-indonesia-persero" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:484:1" rel="noopener">Bank Rakyat Indonesia</a> is coming out of a period of restructuring microloans going back to 2022, but this looks to be close to completion, with a renewed focus on quality.</li>
<li>The bank is increasingly focused on growing its transactional business, aided by increased penetration of its BRIMO and Qlola digital banking platforms, also helping to drive CASA growth.</li>
<li>Management remains optimistic about the 2026 outlook, with 1Q2026 exceeding guidance. BBRI has been impacted by foreign outflows from Indonesia, and valuations are exceedingly attractive, backed by. 12% dividend yield.</li>
</ul>



Bank Rakyat Indonesia is coming out of a period of restructuring microloans going back to 2022, but this looks to be close to completion, with a renewed focus on quality.
The bank is increasingly focused on growing its transactional business, aided by increased penetration of its BRIMO and Qlola digital banking platforms, also helping to drive CASA growth.
Management remains optimistic about the 2026 outlook, with 1Q2026 exceeding guidance. BBRI has been impacted by foreign outflows from Indonesia, and valuations are exceedingly attractive, backed by. 12% dividend yield.


Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI IJ) - Feel The Quality

<ul>
<li>The Indonesian stock market was down 2% over the last year despite a flurry of inflows in the summer but this year looks interesting with a new government in place. </li>
<li>GDP growth forecasts are more optimistic for 2025 and government stimulus should help to drive higher consumption, with FDI driven by more value-added investments in the EV-related projects. </li>
<li>Increasing digitalisation of the economy and greater use of AI will drive profitability and data centre growth. Interest rates are expected to fall -50-100bps which should also be supportive.</li>
</ul>


The Indonesian stock market was down 2% over the last year despite a flurry of inflows in the summer but this year looks interesting with a new government in place. 
GDP growth forecasts are more optimistic for 2025 and government stimulus should help to drive higher consumption, with FDI driven by more value-added investments in the EV-related projects. 
Increasing digitalisation of the economy and greater use of AI will drive profitability and data centre growth. Interest rates are expected to fall -50-100bps which should also be supportive.


CrossASEAN Indonesia Strategy - Parting Clouds

<ul>
<li>Indonesia has been the recipient of significant investment flows for foreign investors with more of a "risk on" environment with a large portion flowing into Indonesian banks. </li>
<li>Indonesia stacks up from an investment perspective with a stable political environment, solid GDP growth of around 5% YoY, rising flows of FDI, and a more stable IDR.</li>
<li>Despite the JCI knocking on all-time highs, valuations continue to look attractive with prospects of a better 2H2024 and lower interest rates. Top picks: Banks, property, consumer, and selective elsewhere. </li>
</ul>


Indonesia has been the recipient of significant investment flows for foreign investors with more of a "risk on" environment with a large portion flowing into Indonesian banks. 
Indonesia stacks up from an investment perspective with a stable political environment, solid GDP growth of around 5% YoY, rising flows of FDI, and a more stable IDR.
Despite the JCI knocking on all-time highs, valuations continue to look attractive with prospects of a better 2H2024 and lower interest rates. Top picks: Banks, property, consumer, and selective elsewhere. 


Indonesia Strategy - Caught in a Perfect Updraft?

Indonesia

PT Bank Rakyat Indonesia (Persero) Tbk is one of Indonesia's largest banks, specializing in providing banking products and services, including savings accounts, loans, and other financial solutions to micro, small, and medium enterprises (MSMEs), as well as retail and corporate clients. The company also offers investment, insurance, and digital banking services. Headquartered in Jakarta, Indonesia, the bank was founded on December 16, 1895.

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Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI IJ)

Indonesia: Time to Scoop Up Bargain?

MSCI Inc downgrades Indonesia has paused while earnings growth for mid- and large-cap stocks intact, making Indonesian stocks cheaper.

Henry Soediarko

ASEAN Rotation: Indonesia Weakens, Singapore Gains, Thailand Stabilises

ASEAN positioning shifts as Indonesia loses ground and Malaysia stays weak. Singapore and Thailand attract inflows, while new leaders like ICTSI...

Steven Holden