Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

It is not the time to have limited capital. There are bound to be mishaps with derivatives, securities, not just loans. While total provisions can be used to absorb losses, it’s capital that ultimately matters and which is the final back-stop a bank has to impairments. As the current set of crises worsen, we note which banks globally may be least able to handle the risks. Many of Japan's banks stand out negatively, but even two of Indonesia's banks do not fare well.

It is not the time to have limited capital. There are bound to be mishaps with derivatives, securities, not just loans. While total provisions can be used to absorb losses, it’s capital that ultimately matters and which is the final back-stop a bank has to impairments. As the current set of crises worsen, we note which banks globally may be least able to handle the risks. Many of Japan's banks stand out negatively, but even two of Indonesia's banks do not fare well. 

Co-founder & Managing Director, Marketnomix 

Rajan Govil

Co-founder & Managing Director

Marketnomix 

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Growth in 3Q2016 was largely driven by household expenditure while investment continued to slow. Government spending declined in 3Q2016.</li><li>Recent revenue shortfalls and consequent expenditure cuts by the government could impact growth prospects in the coming months; lower collections from tax amnesty scheme will likely add to fiscal woes.</li><li>With inflation expected to stay within Bank Indonesia’s target range of 3-5% in the near term, the central bank is likely to maintain an easing bias.</li></ul>

Growth in 3Q2016 was largely driven by household expenditure while investment continued to slow. Government spending declined in 3Q2016.Recent revenue shortfalls and consequent expenditure cuts by the government could impact growth prospects in the coming months; lower collections from tax amnesty scheme will likely add to fiscal woes.With inflation expected to stay within Bank Indonesia’s target range of 3-5% in the near term, the central bank is likely to maintain an easing bias.

The recent rate cut by Bank Indonesia at its policy meeting on 16th June is expected to provide some support to domestic demand in the months ahead. The benchmark rate now stands at 6.50%. With inflation expected to stay within Bank Indonesia’s target range of 3% to 5% in the near term, having edged lower to 3.3% y-o-y in May, growth concerns were clearly the dominant driver for the recent move.Credit growth in Indonesia has continued to slow, with lending by commercial banks having risen 8.0%…

The recent rate cut by Bank Indonesia at its policy meeting on 16th June is expected to provide some support to domestic demand in the months ahead. The benchmark rate now stands at 6.50%. With inflation expected to stay within Bank Indonesia’s target range of 3% to 5% in the near term, having edged lower to 3.3% y-o-y in May, growth concerns were clearly the dominant driver for the recent move.Credit growth in Indonesia has continued to slow, with lending by commercial banks having risen 8.0%…

Indonesia: Bank Indonesia May Have Room to Cut Rates Further

Bespoke Research on China and neighbouring regions, Bixmoor

Bixmoor

Bespoke Research on China and neighbouring regions

Bixmoor specialises in providing bespoke research to business, governments and the financial community on China and neighbouring regions. We seek to build long-term relationships with our clients, based on our expertise, our reliability and our determination to find the right solution.

Foreign direct investment into Indonesia continues to arrive, but there are issues in relation to radical Islam, labor constraints and corruption. If the new government of President Widodo can resolve some of these, even larger capital inflows can be expected.

Foreign direct investment into Indonesia continues to arrive, but there are issues in relation to radical Islam, labor constraints and corruption. If the new government of President Widodo can resolve some of these, even larger capital inflows can be expected.

FDI into Indonesia on a Roll, but Reforms Needed

<ul><li>There is no denying the slowing GDP growth in Indonesia.</li><li>The currency has become more acutely weak.</li><li>Bad loans are rising for all the major banks in 1Q15.</li><li>Without being flippant about the immediate risk to earnings from credit quality and the cycle, we believe that some perspective is worthwhile.</li></ul>

There is no denying the slowing GDP growth in Indonesia.The currency has become more acutely weak.Bad loans are rising for all the major banks in 1Q15.Without being flippant about the immediate risk to earnings from credit quality and the cycle, we believe that some perspective is worthwhile.

Indonesia

PT Bank Raya Indonesia Tbk is an Indonesian commercial bank offering a comprehensive suite of financial services, including savings accounts, checking accounts, fixed deposits, and various loan products such as personal, housing, and vehicle loans. It operates through consumer, retail, middle, and micro segments, focusing on digital banking solutions and financial inclusion. The company is headquartered in Jakarta, Indonesia, and was founded in 1989.

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Bank Raya Indonesia (AGRO IJ)

Global Banks – Razor Thin Capital

It is not the time to have limited capital. There are bound to be mishaps with derivatives, securities, not just loans. While total provisions can...

Daniel Tabbush

Marketnomix Insights : Indonesia

Growth in 3Q2016 was largely driven by household expenditure while investment continued to slow. Government spending declined in 3Q2016. Recent...

Rajan Govil

Indonesia: Bank Indonesia May Have Room to Cut Rates Further

The recent rate cut by Bank Indonesia at its policy meeting on 16th June is expected to provide some support to domestic demand in the months...

Rajan Govil

FDI into Indonesia on a Roll, but Reforms Needed

Foreign direct investment into Indonesia continues to arrive, but there are issues in relation to radical Islam, labor constraints and corruption....

Bixmoor

Indonesia Concerns in Focus

There is no denying the slowing GDP growth in Indonesia. The currency has become more acutely weak. Bad loans are rising for all the major banks...

Daniel Tabbush

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