Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Index Rebalance

The LQ45 Index is a market cap weighted index of the 45 most liquid stocks listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange. The LQ45 Index covers at least 70% of the stock market capitalization and transaction values in the Indonesia Stock Market.The next rebalance of the LQ45 Index will be effective after the close of trading on 29 January and will be announced latest by 26 January, though it is likely that it could be announced as early as 22 January post market close.Stocks that could be included in the index are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-brisyariah-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26981:1" rel="noopener">Bank Brisyariah (BRIS IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kimia-farma-persero-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8524:1" rel="noopener">Kimia Farma Persero (KAEF IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/timah-persero-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11174:1" rel="noopener">Timah Persero (TINS IJ)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pp-london-sumatra-indones-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9039:1" rel="noopener">Pp London Sumatra Indones (LSIP IJ)</a>, while stocks that could be deleted from the index are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sri-rejeki-isman-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20178:1" rel="noopener">Sri Rejeki Isman (SRIL IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/summarecon-agung-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5693:1" rel="noopener">Summarecon Agung (SMRA IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wijaya-karya-persero-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1877:1" rel="noopener">Wijaya Karya Persero (WIKA IJ)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jasa-marga-persero-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12747:1" rel="noopener">Jasa Marga (Persero) (JSMR IJ)</a>.Given the subjective nature of stock inclusion and exclusion, plus the short time frame between announcement of the changes and the implementation, the adds outperform the deletes between announcement and implementation.Though passive assets tracking the index are limited, the LQ45 is a very popular benchmark for mutual funds and pension funds and active managers will also be trading the stocks to realign their portfolios to the new index names.

The LQ45 Index is a market cap weighted index of the 45 most liquid stocks listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange. The LQ45 Index covers at least 70% of the stock market capitalization and transaction values in the Indonesia Stock Market.The next rebalance of the LQ45 Index will be effective after the close of trading on 29 January and will be announced latest by 26 January, though it is likely that it could be announced as early as 22 January post market close.Stocks that could be included in the index are Bank Brisyariah (BRIS IJ), Kimia Farma Persero (KAEF IJ), Timah Persero (TINS IJ) and Pp London Sumatra Indones (LSIP IJ), while stocks that could be deleted from the index are Sri Rejeki Isman (SRIL IJ), Summarecon Agung (SMRA IJ), Wijaya Karya Persero (WIKA IJ) and Jasa Marga (Persero) (JSMR IJ).Given the subjective nature of stock inclusion and exclusion, plus the short time frame between announcement of the changes and the implementation, the adds outperform the deletes between announcement and implementation.Though passive assets tracking the index are limited, the LQ45 is a very popular benchmark for mutual funds and pension funds and active managers will also be trading the stocks to realign their portfolios to the new index names.

LQ45 Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Candidates for Change

ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Equity Bottom-Up

A call with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-negara-indonesia-persero" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8285:1" rel="noopener">Bank Negara Indonesia Persero (BBNI IJ)</a> revealed a focus on preparing the ground for a recovery next year, with efforts to lower funding costs but also to build higher provisioning levels, especially for its commercial loans.
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-negara-indonesia-persero" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8285:1" rel="noopener">Bank Negara Indonesia Persero (BBNI IJ)</a> has been reducing its time deposit rates by stopping offering special rates to customers but rates are still high compared to peers.
The bank's corporate and consumer loans are in better shape, with a focus on growing its better quality corporate and salary-based mortgage loans but commercial loans are a black spot.
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-negara-indonesia-persero" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8285:1" rel="noopener">Bank Negara Indonesia Persero (BBNI IJ)</a> is behind its peers on its digital banking initiatives but has seen strong growth of +80% YoY this year in terms of transactions and nearly +60% growth is its mobile banking users. It continues to push out mobile banking to its 40m savings accounts. 
The updated guidance is for credit costs to rise to versus previous guidance, which suggests further provisioning to come.
The new management team from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-mandiri-persero-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:441:1" rel="noopener">Bank Mandiri Persero (BMRI IJ)</a> will undoubtedly move to implement new growth strategies but short term the priority will be to clean up the bank's books.
Valuations are relatively attractive, with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-negara-indonesia-persero" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8285:1" rel="noopener">Bank Negara Indonesia Persero (BBNI IJ)</a> trading on 1.06x FY20E PBV, with its ROE expected to recover to 9.6% in FY21E but there is a risk that provisioning will continue to rise going into 2021, which would further impact profits.

A call with Bank Negara Indonesia Persero (BBNI IJ) revealed a focus on preparing the ground for a recovery next year, with efforts to lower funding costs but also to build higher provisioning levels, especially for its commercial loans.
Bank Negara Indonesia Persero (BBNI IJ) has been reducing its time deposit rates by stopping offering special rates to customers but rates are still high compared to peers.
The bank's corporate and consumer loans are in better shape, with a focus on growing its better quality corporate and salary-based mortgage loans but commercial loans are a black spot.
Bank Negara Indonesia Persero (BBNI IJ) is behind its peers on its digital banking initiatives but has seen strong growth of +80% YoY this year in terms of transactions and nearly +60% growth is its mobile banking users. It continues to push out mobile banking to its 40m savings accounts. 
The updated guidance is for credit costs to rise to versus previous guidance, which suggests further provisioning to come.
The new management team from Bank Mandiri Persero (BMRI IJ) will undoubtedly move to implement new growth strategies but short term the priority will be to clean up the bank's books.
Valuations are relatively attractive, with Bank Negara Indonesia Persero (BBNI IJ) trading on 1.06x FY20E PBV, with its ROE expected to recover to 9.6% in FY21E but there is a risk that provisioning will continue to rise going into 2021, which would further impact profits. 

Bank Negara Indonesia Persero (BBNI IJ) - Still More Pain to Come

A Smartkarma webinar with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-mandiri-persero-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:441:1" rel="noopener">Bank Mandiri Persero (BMRI IJ)</a> this week revealed a bank well-positioned to benefit from the gradual economic recovery taking place in Indonesia.
The bank has a new management team, which is focused on its 5-year corporate plan, "beyond lending", which involves more cross-selling to wholesale clients to extract value and increasing its digital banking capabilities.
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-mandiri-persero-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:441:1" rel="noopener">Bank Mandiri Persero (BMRI IJ)</a> has seen significant reductions in funding costs as well as a marked improvement in its liquidity position, with a loans to deposit ratio of only 83%.
It has seen its restructured loans plateau out and provisions continue to come down, with credit costs likely to peak by end of 2020 at 3.5% before falling in 2021. 
Loan growth has started to pick up for property and auto segments but loans are still focused on working capital rather than investment as yet. 
Mobile banking has overtaken ATMs in terms of transaction value for the first time and this brings with it significant cost savings. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-mandiri-persero-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:441:1" rel="noopener">Bank Mandiri Persero (BMRI IJ)</a> will launch a super App next year to expand the scope of its digital business.
The creation of a new state-owned Syariah bank under <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-brisyariah-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26981:1" rel="noopener">Bank Brisyariah (BRIS IJ)</a> with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-mandiri-persero-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:441:1" rel="noopener">Bank Mandiri Persero (BMRI IJ)</a> has great promise given greater scale and potentially high returns. 
From an ESG perspective <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-mandiri-persero-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:441:1" rel="noopener">Bank Mandiri Persero (BMRI IJ)</a> is aligning itself with UN Sustainable Development Goals in a wide variety of areas, with the aim of being the ESG leaderin the Indonesian banking space.
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<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-mandiri-persero-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:441:1" rel="noopener">Bank Mandiri Persero (BMRI IJ)</a> remains our top pick amongst the Indonesian banks, with a number of standout positives outline above and it more detail below the fold. The bank trades on 1.5x FY2020E PBV versus its 3-year average of 1.8x with the prospect of a strong rebound in earnings over the next two years and a rising ROE. 
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A Smartkarma webinar with Bank Mandiri Persero (BMRI IJ) this week revealed a bank well-positioned to benefit from the gradual economic recovery taking place in Indonesia.
The bank has a new management team, which is focused on its 5-year corporate plan, "beyond lending", which involves more cross-selling to wholesale clients to extract value and increasing its digital banking capabilities.
Bank Mandiri Persero (BMRI IJ) has seen significant reductions in funding costs as well as a marked improvement in its liquidity position, with a loans to deposit ratio of only 83%.
It has seen its restructured loans plateau out and provisions continue to come down, with credit costs likely to peak by end of 2020 at 3.5% before falling in 2021. 
Loan growth has started to pick up for property and auto segments but loans are still focused on working capital rather than investment as yet. 
Mobile banking has overtaken ATMs in terms of transaction value for the first time and this brings with it significant cost savings. Bank Mandiri Persero (BMRI IJ) will launch a super App next year to expand the scope of its digital business.
The creation of a new state-owned Syariah bank under Bank Brisyariah (BRIS IJ) with Bank Mandiri Persero (BMRI IJ) has great promise given greater scale and potentially high returns. 
From an ESG perspective Bank Mandiri Persero (BMRI IJ) is aligning itself with UN Sustainable Development Goals in a wide variety of areas, with the aim of being the ESG leaderin the Indonesian banking space.

Bank Mandiri Persero (BMRI IJ) remains our top pick amongst the Indonesian banks, with a number of standout positives outline above and it more detail below the fold. The bank trades on 1.5x FY2020E PBV versus its 3-year average of 1.8x with the prospect of a strong rebound in earnings over the next two years and a rising ROE. 


Bank Mandiri Persero (BMRI IJ) - A Stand Out on a Number of Fronts

The recent announcement that the three state-owned Syariah banks including Mandiri Syariah, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-brisyariah-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26981:1" rel="noopener">Bank Brisyariah (BRIS IJ),</a> and BNI Syariah will merge together to form a new state-owned Syariah entity signals a change of pace in the space. 
It is not surprising that Syariah banking is becoming increasing popular in Indonesia given the fact that the population is nearly 80% Muslim, with the largest population of Muslim in the world.
This is compounded by an increasing trend within society to "be a good Muslim", with the wearing  of Hijabs, the consuming of Halal products, making charitable donations ("Zakat"), pilgrimages to Mecca (Umrah and Hadj), and obviously Islamic Syariah Banking. 
Syariah Banking can be a very profitable business, with an inherently low cost of funds and a different way of collecting "interest" on loans but this is not always the case. 
Syariah lenders such as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-tabungan-pensiunan-nasi" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27088:1" rel="noopener">Bank BTPN Syariah (BTPS IJ)</a> achieve super-normal returns with an ROA above 10% Pre-COVID and Mandiri Syariah (Indonesia's largest Syariah Bank by assets &amp; deposits) achieved an ROE of 15.7% in 2Q2020. 
Other such as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-brisyariah-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26981:1" rel="noopener">Bank Brisyariah (BRIS IJ)</a> and BNI Syariah are much less profitable, with the former achieving an ROE of only 3%, with the latter close to zero. Even BCA Syariah ( <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-central-asia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:440:1" rel="noopener">Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ)</a> only achieved an ROE of 4.0% in 2019. 
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Bringing the three SOE Shairya Banks together with Mandiri Syariah as the lead, will bring with it better scale and cost synergies, with targetted ROEs in the mid-teens in the medium-term. Though unconfirmed as yet, it is likely that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-mandiri-persero-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:441:1" rel="noopener">Bank Mandiri (BMRI IJ)</a> will have a controlling interest in the merged entity, which will make it the key beneficiary of growth in the new entity. 
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The recent announcement that the three state-owned Syariah banks including Mandiri Syariah, Bank Brisyariah (BRIS IJ), and BNI Syariah will merge together to form a new state-owned Syariah entity signals a change of pace in the space. 
It is not surprising that Syariah banking is becoming increasing popular in Indonesia given the fact that the population is nearly 80% Muslim, with the largest population of Muslim in the world.
This is compounded by an increasing trend within society to "be a good Muslim", with the wearing  of Hijabs, the consuming of Halal products, making charitable donations ("Zakat"), pilgrimages to Mecca (Umrah and Hadj), and obviously Islamic Syariah Banking. 
Syariah Banking can be a very profitable business, with an inherently low cost of funds and a different way of collecting "interest" on loans but this is not always the case. 
Syariah lenders such as Bank BTPN Syariah (BTPS IJ) achieve super-normal returns with an ROA above 10% Pre-COVID and Mandiri Syariah (Indonesia's largest Syariah Bank by assets &amp; deposits) achieved an ROE of 15.7% in 2Q2020. 
Other such as Bank Brisyariah (BRIS IJ) and BNI Syariah are much less profitable, with the former achieving an ROE of only 3%, with the latter close to zero. Even BCA Syariah ( Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ) only achieved an ROE of 4.0% in 2019. 

Bringing the three SOE Shairya Banks together with Mandiri Syariah as the lead, will bring with it better scale and cost synergies, with targetted ROEs in the mid-teens in the medium-term. Though unconfirmed as yet, it is likely that Bank Mandiri (BMRI IJ) will have a controlling interest in the merged entity, which will make it the key beneficiary of growth in the new entity. 


Bank Mandiri Persero (BMRI IJ) - The Unsung Hero of Syariah?

A call with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-mandiri-persero-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:441:1" rel="noopener">Bank Mandiri Persero (BMRI IJ)</a> revealed a relatively positive message on a number of fronts, which came as a rare positive surprise. 
The bank has made good progress on asset quality, with growth in restructured loans flattening out with no change since the end of 2Q2020. There was no resurgence of problem loans since new PSBB measures were imposed and we have now just returned to the new normal. 
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-mandiri-persero-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:441:1" rel="noopener">Bank Mandiri Persero (BMRI IJ)</a> remains confident that credit costs are like to come in at the lower end of its FY2020 guidance at 2.5%.
Loan growth between June-August has been weak with a declining balance due to early repayments in the corporate segment, with some SOEs receiving funding from the government, which they have used to repay loans with banks.  
Retail lending has been quiet although there has been some pick up in mortgages and some improvement in auto loans. 
The bank has significantly reduced its time deposit rates to around 3.5% with a 200bp reduction, which will feed through to higher net interest income, especially in 4Q2020. 
We also look at the potential listing for the bank's Syariah business in the not too distant future. 
<div class="content-highlight">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-mandiri-persero-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:441:1" rel="noopener">Bank Mandiri Persero (BMRI IJ)</a> is trading on 1.3x FY2020E PBV versus its 5-year average of 1.8x, with its ROE forecast to recover to 12.7% in FY21E on the back of a +61.8% EPS growth. The announcement of the new management team and its 3Q2020, will both provide positive catalysts over the next month. The fact that credit costs are under control should be a further positive catalyst for the bank. 
</div>

A call with Bank Mandiri Persero (BMRI IJ) revealed a relatively positive message on a number of fronts, which came as a rare positive surprise. 
The bank has made good progress on asset quality, with growth in restructured loans flattening out with no change since the end of 2Q2020. There was no resurgence of problem loans since new PSBB measures were imposed and we have now just returned to the new normal. 
Bank Mandiri Persero (BMRI IJ) remains confident that credit costs are like to come in at the lower end of its FY2020 guidance at 2.5%.
Loan growth between June-August has been weak with a declining balance due to early repayments in the corporate segment, with some SOEs receiving funding from the government, which they have used to repay loans with banks.  
Retail lending has been quiet although there has been some pick up in mortgages and some improvement in auto loans. 
The bank has significantly reduced its time deposit rates to around 3.5% with a 200bp reduction, which will feed through to higher net interest income, especially in 4Q2020. 
We also look at the potential listing for the bank's Syariah business in the not too distant future. 

Bank Mandiri Persero (BMRI IJ) is trading on 1.3x FY2020E PBV versus its 5-year average of 1.8x, with its ROE forecast to recover to 12.7% in FY21E on the back of a +61.8% EPS growth. The announcement of the new management team and its 3Q2020, will both provide positive catalysts over the next month. The fact that credit costs are under control should be a further positive catalyst for the bank. 


Bank Mandiri Persero (BMRI IJ) - A Plethora of Good News

Indonesia

Bank Syariah Indonesia is a state-owned Islamic bank in Indonesia, offering a comprehensive range of commercial banking products and services to individuals and corporations, including savings, financing, investment, and digital banking. It operates through segments such as Corporate Banking, Commercial Banking, Institutional Relation, Retail Banking, and Treasury Banking and Head Office. The bank was officially founded on February 1, 2021, as a result of a merger between three state-owned sharia banks. Its headquarters are located in Jakarta, Indonesia.

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Bank Syariah Indonesia (BRIS IJ)

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Angus Mackintosh

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Bank Mandiri management has revealed better than expected progress on loan restructuring plus a number of other positives including rapidly falling...

Angus Mackintosh

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